A method of risk assessment in defense planning tasks
In recent years, the security and defense sector have been undertaken steps to move toward the model that are based on the Capability-Based Planning approach. This approach is usual in NATO member countries. The main issue is a rational approach to resource planning for the formation and maintenance...
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| Date: | 2021 |
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| Language: | Ukrainian |
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Інститут проблем реєстрації інформації НАН України
2021
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| Online Access: | http://drsp.ipri.kiev.ua/article/view/244809 |
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drspiprikievua-article-2448092021-12-14T03:35:52Z A method of risk assessment in defense planning tasks Метод оцінювання ризиків у задачах оборонного планування Нестеренко, О. В. Фаловський, О. О. оборонне планування, ризик, графи, онтологія, голосування defense planning, risk, graphs, ontology, voting In recent years, the security and defense sector have been undertaken steps to move toward the model that are based on the Capability-Based Planning approach. This approach is usual in NATO member countries. The main issue is a rational approach to resource planning for the formation and maintenance of appropriate organizational and staffing structures, equipping with weapons and technical means. The methodological complexity of this procedure is due to the need to balance based on the criterion «result – cost» and minimize risks in threat scenarios. In turn, this requires support improvement for risk management decision-making in defense planning. This research aim is an approach to expert risk assessment in defense planning tasks related to supplying capabilities with the necessary resources. The peculiarity of this approach is that the set of used alternative solutions allows the existence of dependencies between the elements. In consider of the specifics of the subject area for the implementation of the approach, the possibilities of the method of supporting expert decisions, which combines the usage of graphs, ontology, voting and appropriate calculation procedures, are considered. The basis for data organization and risk management is provided by risk taxonomy, as a means of identifying and studying various aspects of risk. According to the policy documents, risk assessment is carried out so as to match the criteria of the probability of their occurrence and the significance of the impact on the process of acquiring consistent. To determine the probability and significance of the impact, the method of expert assessments on a rating scale of points is used. The way to make a collective decision on expert assessments is by voting. The calculated part is based on a bipartite graph of threat scenarios and required resources, adjacency matrix and characteristic vectors. The obtained results allow us to study the options for solutions to reduce risk levels according to the «what – if» scheme. Calculations allow obtaining the presentation of results in the form of various diagrams, which are a convenient means of research visualization. Tabl.: 4. Fig.: 5. Refs: 22 titles. Запропоновано застосування підходу до експертного оцінювання ризиків у задачах оборонного планування, що пов’язані із забезпеченням спроможностей необхідними ресурсами. Особливістю підходу є те, що множина альтернатив рішень, що розглядаються, допускає наявність залежностей між елементами. Для реалізації підходу розглянуто, з урахуванням специфіки предметної області, можливості методу підтримки експертних рішень, що поєднує застосування графів, онтологій, голосування та відповідних розрахункових процедур. Інститут проблем реєстрації інформації НАН України 2021-09-21 Article Article application/pdf http://drsp.ipri.kiev.ua/article/view/244809 10.35681/1560-9189.2021.23.3.244809 Data Recording, Storage & Processing; Vol. 23 No. 3 (2021); 68-79 Регистрация, хранение и обработка данных; Том 23 № 3 (2021); 68-79 Реєстрація, зберігання і обробка даних; Том 23 № 3 (2021); 68-79 1560-9189 uk http://drsp.ipri.kiev.ua/article/view/244809/244543 Авторське право (c) 2021 Реєстрація, зберігання і обробка даних |
| institution |
Data Recording, Storage & Processing |
| baseUrl_str |
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| datestamp_date |
2021-12-14T03:35:52Z |
| collection |
OJS |
| language |
Ukrainian |
| topic |
defense planning risk graphs ontology voting |
| spellingShingle |
defense planning risk graphs ontology voting Нестеренко, О. В. Фаловський, О. О. A method of risk assessment in defense planning tasks |
| topic_facet |
оборонне планування ризик графи онтологія голосування defense planning risk graphs ontology voting |
| format |
Article |
| author |
Нестеренко, О. В. Фаловський, О. О. |
| author_facet |
Нестеренко, О. В. Фаловський, О. О. |
| author_sort |
Нестеренко, О. В. |
| title |
A method of risk assessment in defense planning tasks |
| title_short |
A method of risk assessment in defense planning tasks |
| title_full |
A method of risk assessment in defense planning tasks |
| title_fullStr |
A method of risk assessment in defense planning tasks |
| title_full_unstemmed |
A method of risk assessment in defense planning tasks |
| title_sort |
method of risk assessment in defense planning tasks |
| title_alt |
Метод оцінювання ризиків у задачах оборонного планування |
| description |
In recent years, the security and defense sector have been undertaken steps to move toward the model that are based on the Capability-Based Planning approach. This approach is usual in NATO member countries. The main issue is a rational approach to resource planning for the formation and maintenance of appropriate organizational and staffing structures, equipping with weapons and technical means. The methodological complexity of this procedure is due to the need to balance based on the criterion «result – cost» and minimize risks in threat scenarios. In turn, this requires support improvement for risk management decision-making in defense planning. This research aim is an approach to expert risk assessment in defense planning tasks related to supplying capabilities with the necessary resources. The peculiarity of this approach is that the set of used alternative solutions allows the existence of dependencies between the elements. In consider of the specifics of the subject area for the implementation of the approach, the possibilities of the method of supporting expert decisions, which combines the usage of graphs, ontology, voting and appropriate calculation procedures, are considered. The basis for data organization and risk management is provided by risk taxonomy, as a means of identifying and studying various aspects of risk. According to the policy documents, risk assessment is carried out so as to match the criteria of the probability of their occurrence and the significance of the impact on the process of acquiring consistent. To determine the probability and significance of the impact, the method of expert assessments on a rating scale of points is used. The way to make a collective decision on expert assessments is by voting. The calculated part is based on a bipartite graph of threat scenarios and required resources, adjacency matrix and characteristic vectors. The obtained results allow us to study the options for solutions to reduce risk levels according to the «what – if» scheme. Calculations allow obtaining the presentation of results in the form of various diagrams, which are a convenient means of research visualization. Tabl.: 4. Fig.: 5. Refs: 22 titles. |
| publisher |
Інститут проблем реєстрації інформації НАН України |
| publishDate |
2021 |
| url |
http://drsp.ipri.kiev.ua/article/view/244809 |
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