Technical and algorithmic complex of monitoring of the dangerous geodynamics phenomena
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Інститут геофізики ім. С.I. Субботіна НАН України
2010
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| Zitieren: | Technical and algorithmic complex of monitoring of the dangerous geodynamics phenomena / O. Liashchuk // Геофизический журнал. — 2010. — Т. 32, № 4. — С. 87-88. — Бібліогр.: 2 назв. — англ. |
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irk-123456789-1017632016-06-07T03:03:11Z Technical and algorithmic complex of monitoring of the dangerous geodynamics phenomena Liashchuk, O. 2010 Article Technical and algorithmic complex of monitoring of the dangerous geodynamics phenomena / O. Liashchuk // Геофизический журнал. — 2010. — Т. 32, № 4. — С. 87-88. — Бібліогр.: 2 назв. — англ. 0203-3100 http://dspace.nbuv.gov.ua/handle/123456789/101763 en Геофизический журнал Інститут геофізики ім. С.I. Субботіна НАН України |
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Digital Library of Periodicals of National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine |
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DSpace DC |
| language |
English |
| format |
Article |
| author |
Liashchuk, O. |
| spellingShingle |
Liashchuk, O. Technical and algorithmic complex of monitoring of the dangerous geodynamics phenomena Геофизический журнал |
| author_facet |
Liashchuk, O. |
| author_sort |
Liashchuk, O. |
| title |
Technical and algorithmic complex of monitoring of the dangerous geodynamics phenomena |
| title_short |
Technical and algorithmic complex of monitoring of the dangerous geodynamics phenomena |
| title_full |
Technical and algorithmic complex of monitoring of the dangerous geodynamics phenomena |
| title_fullStr |
Technical and algorithmic complex of monitoring of the dangerous geodynamics phenomena |
| title_full_unstemmed |
Technical and algorithmic complex of monitoring of the dangerous geodynamics phenomena |
| title_sort |
technical and algorithmic complex of monitoring of the dangerous geodynamics phenomena |
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Інститут геофізики ім. С.I. Субботіна НАН України |
| publishDate |
2010 |
| url |
http://dspace.nbuv.gov.ua/handle/123456789/101763 |
| citation_txt |
Technical and algorithmic complex of monitoring of the dangerous geodynamics phenomena / O. Liashchuk // Геофизический журнал. — 2010. — Т. 32, № 4. — С. 87-88. — Бібліогр.: 2 назв. — англ. |
| series |
Геофизический журнал |
| work_keys_str_mv |
AT liashchuko technicalandalgorithmiccomplexofmonitoringofthedangerousgeodynamicsphenomena |
| first_indexed |
2025-07-07T11:22:06Z |
| last_indexed |
2025-07-07T11:22:06Z |
| _version_ |
1836987006365728768 |
| fulltext |
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Technical and algorithmic complex of monitoring
of the dangerous �������
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O. Liashchuk, 2010
Main center of the special control, Makarov-1, Ukraine
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It is set that mechanical changes in the earth's
crust cause the change of parameters of all of the
geophysical fields — electromagnetic, acoustic,
seismic, influence on speed of output of gases from
the earth's crust et al. The overhaul of the last looks
to co-operation of the geophysical fields is resulted
in work [Liperovsky et al., 2008]. These changes
are most noticeable at such high-power phenome-
na, as earthquakes. At what changes in the geo-
physical fields take a place and registered not only
after a basic shove but also during preparation of
earthquake and can serve in quality forecasters.
On the basis of world information and own re-
searches we are offer the qualitative model of co-
operation of the geophysical fields during develop-
ment of earthquakes and education of forecasters
[Liashchuk et al., 2007]. So as a result of formation
of defects as a result of change of the resiliently
deformed state (mechanical tension) of the earth's
crust before an earthquake, there are hertzian waves
and underground acoustic noises. It is related to
that every act of formation ��
��� and macrodefect
excitation of acoustic and optical vibrations of crys-
talline grate, and consequently and by the radiation
of acoustic and electromagnetic waves. In same
queue the radiation of acoustic waves can result in
an accelerating mechanism, essence of which in
because intensive formation of defects, which is
generated a stress deformation of breeds in the dis-
trict of the future forms ultrasonic waves which in
same queue substantially increase speed of trans-
fer of gases (to the radon in a that number) in the
matrix of mountain breeds the epicentre of earth-
quake. As a result of exit from breeds on the sur-
face of radio-active gas of radon, there is ionic com-
position of the atmosphere and there is an anoma-
lous electromagnetic radiation in an atmosphere.
The increase of tension brings to the compression
breeds over in the place of future cell of earthquake,
as a result also there is an intensive exit of gases
from the earthly bowels of the earth (so-called ef-
fect of degassing). At forming of main break, when
the system already is in the unstable state, there
are noise ����������� vibrations of earthly surface,
which result in appearance of vertical ������������
� acoustic vibrations — infrasound. Arriving at the
overhead layers of atmosphere (ionosphere), infra-
sound begins to influence on chaotic motion of the
charged particles (ions). Motion of ions acquires a
certain orientation, what ionosphere currents are as
a result of. Ionosphere currents, caused the vibra-
tions of the earth's crust, and also atmosphere ioni-
zed before an earthquake can influence on distribu-
tion of VLF radio waves, which spread in a
waveguide Earth-ionosphere.
Taking into account aforesaid, in the Main cen-
ter of the special control created system for the ex-
posure of possible predict effects of, which includes
for itself the complex of the seismic, electromag-
netic, infrasonic, radon measurings and can broa-
den other geophysical methods. An apparatus for
conducting of measurings is oriented to measuring
of �����������
� background processes in the earth's
crust and atmosphere.
Practice of prognosis researches shows that as
a reliable forecaster for every earthquake, none of
common geophysical methods can not come for-
ward, as before earthquakes which took a place, in
times of systematic supervisions there were cases
of and erroneous anomalies, and “admission of pur-
pose”.
The analysis of long-term data of row of geo-
physical (mainly seismological) forecasters showed
that probability of successful prognosis on each of
them did not exceed 0.5. One of possible exits from
a situation there is the general use a few signs. It is
thus necessary to go out from that every separate
forecaster represents that, whether other side many-
sided and not to the end of clear process of prepa-
ration of earthquake and is not informing enough
from the point of view statistics.
As a result of analysis of the accumulated infor-
mation we are choose the row of ����������criteria
for each of geophysical methods which are on ob-
/#�)-(% '1%.�+,#(� #(%2
55 ���������
���
����������������������
servation of MCSM posts. The estimation of proba-
bility of that an earthquake will take a place is con-
ducted, taking into account probabilities of possi-
ble forecasters for the region of mountains of Vran-
cha. For each of criteria, offered for a compatible
analysis probabilistic indexes settled accounts du-
ring throughout the year, a selection is taken in
which. An integral criterion which took into account
influencing of found out every forecaster settled ac-
counts in future.
It is set that most payment is given by radon
and electromagnetic forecasters. However, none of
Liashchuk O. I., Savel'ev V. Yu., Pavlovich V. M. Com-
plex method for search of probable forecasters of
earthquakes in district of vrancha mountains // Geo-
dynamics. — 2007. — � 1(6). — P. 55—59 (in Rus-
sian).
them independently exceeded the value of probabi-
lity of origin of earthquake for the region of Vrancha
(R=0,358). But before an earthquake 12.05.2005
(M=5,1), when all worked criteria are select, proba-
bility of origin of earthquake a complex was R=0.77,
that in 2,1 times exceeds probability of the simple
guessing.
Subsequent development of methods of complex
researches and receipt of the unique integral de-
scription is on observation posts, will enable yet
more to promote reliability and efficiency of progno-
sis estimations.
References
Liperovsky V. A., Pokhotelov O. A., Liperovskaya E. V.,
Meister C.-V. Physical models of coupling in the litho-
sphere-atmosphere-ionosphere system before
earthquakes // Geomagnetism and Aeronomy. —
2008. — 48, � 6. — P. 795—806 (in Russian).
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