Analysis of Russian market of foodstuffs and agricultural raw materials in modern conditions of managing

The paper analyzes the characteristics and trends in the product structure and geographical flows of Russia’s trade. A significant influence of TNCs on the Russian market of food and agricultural raw materials was detected. The developmental problems, place and prospects of Russia on the global food...

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Дата:	2016
Автори:	Shabalina, L., Kapko, A.
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Мова:	English
Опубліковано:	Інститут економіки промисловості НАН України 2016
Назва видання:	Економічний вісник Донбасу
Теми:	International and Regional Economics
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Цитувати:	Analysis of Russian market of foodstuffs and agricultural raw materials in modern conditions of managing / L. Shabalina, A. Kapko // Економічний вісник Донбасу. — 2016. — № 4 (46). — С. 28–34. — Бібліогр.: 14 назв. — англ.

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Digital Library of Periodicals of National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine

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spelling	irk-123456789-1148962017-03-20T03:02:45Z Analysis of Russian market of foodstuffs and agricultural raw materials in modern conditions of managing Shabalina, L. Kapko, A. International and Regional Economics The paper analyzes the characteristics and trends in the product structure and geographical flows of Russia’s trade. A significant influence of TNCs on the Russian market of food and agricultural raw materials was detected. The developmental problems, place and prospects of Russia on the global food market in terms of import substitution policy were identified. У статті проаналізовано особливості та тенденції товарної структури та географічних потоків торгівлі Росії. Виявлено істотний вплив ТНК на російський ринок продовольства та сільськогосподарської сировини. Визначено проблеми розвитку, місце та перспективи Росії на світовому ринку продовольства в умовах політики імпортозаміщення. В статье проанализированы особенности и тенденции в товарной структуре и географических потоках торговли России. Выявлено существенное влияние ТНК на российский рынок продовольствия и сельскохозяйственного сырья. Определены проблемы развития, место и перспективы России на мировом рынке продовольствия в условиях политики импортозамещения. 2016 Article Analysis of Russian market of foodstuffs and agricultural raw materials in modern conditions of managing / L. Shabalina, A. Kapko // Економічний вісник Донбасу. — 2016. — № 4 (46). — С. 28–34. — Бібліогр.: 14 назв. — англ. 1817-3772 http://dspace.nbuv.gov.ua/handle/123456789/114896 330.834.4:338.1(470) en Економічний вісник Донбасу Інститут економіки промисловості НАН України
institution	Digital Library of Periodicals of National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine
collection	DSpace DC
language	English
topic	International and Regional Economics International and Regional Economics
spellingShingle	International and Regional Economics International and Regional Economics Shabalina, L. Kapko, A. Analysis of Russian market of foodstuffs and agricultural raw materials in modern conditions of managing Економічний вісник Донбасу
description	The paper analyzes the characteristics and trends in the product structure and geographical flows of Russia’s trade. A significant influence of TNCs on the Russian market of food and agricultural raw materials was detected. The developmental problems, place and prospects of Russia on the global food market in terms of import substitution policy were identified.
format	Article
author	Shabalina, L. Kapko, A.
author_facet	Shabalina, L. Kapko, A.
author_sort	Shabalina, L.
title	Analysis of Russian market of foodstuffs and agricultural raw materials in modern conditions of managing
title_short	Analysis of Russian market of foodstuffs and agricultural raw materials in modern conditions of managing
title_full	Analysis of Russian market of foodstuffs and agricultural raw materials in modern conditions of managing
title_fullStr	Analysis of Russian market of foodstuffs and agricultural raw materials in modern conditions of managing
title_full_unstemmed	Analysis of Russian market of foodstuffs and agricultural raw materials in modern conditions of managing
title_sort	analysis of russian market of foodstuffs and agricultural raw materials in modern conditions of managing
publisher	Інститут економіки промисловості НАН України
publishDate	2016
topic_facet	International and Regional Economics
url	http://dspace.nbuv.gov.ua/handle/123456789/114896
citation_txt	Analysis of Russian market of foodstuffs and agricultural raw materials in modern conditions of managing / L. Shabalina, A. Kapko // Економічний вісник Донбасу. — 2016. — № 4 (46). — С. 28–34. — Бібліогр.: 14 назв. — англ.
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fulltext	L. Shabalina, A. Kapko 28 Економічний вісник Донбасу № 4(46), 2016 UDC 330.834.4:338.1(470) L. Shabalina, PhD (Economics), A. Kapko, Donetsk National Technical University ANALYSIS OF RUSSIAN MARKET OF FOODSTUFFS AND AGRICULTURAL RAW MATERIALS IN MODERN CONDITIONS OF MANAGING Features of global food market’s functioning are the most important factors of the Russian Federation’s (RF) food industry development in the context of import substitution policy. Russia is a major net importer of food and agricultural raw materials, the annual purchase of these products worth more than 10 billion U. S. dol- lars (USD). Food security, along with the military one, is a key area of the RF's activity in the context of the current geopolitical situation. Therefore, it is advisable to pay attention to such sector of international trade, as the market of agricultural raw materials and food prod- ucts. The problems of the modern world’s international trade in the food sector was given attention in the works of Druck P., Magud N., Katasonov V., Pakhomov A., Kuznetsova E. G., etc. Features of modern Russian food market were highlighted in the works of Salahov N., Va- silieva N. A., Palachov R., Rudakov D., Voronin B. V., etc. The aim of this work is to identify the main prob- lems and prospects of development of RF’s market of foodstuffs and agricultural raw materials. The object of the research is the modern market of international trade. The subject of the research is peculiarities of the modern Russian market of agricultural raw materials and foodstuffs. Until the crisis of 2007-2009 years, for nearly a decade, international trade had growth rates which ex- ceed the rate of global GDP on average 2 times. After the crisis the growth rate of the world’s economy and world’s trade began to move closer, and then there was a trade gap from the global economic growth. In 2012 - 2013 years the growth of world trade was less than 3%. For comparison, the long-term average growth rate of world trade in the pre-crisis 2001-2006 years reached 7.1%. According to experts of the Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis (The Hague), for the first time in 2015 year in comparison with 2009 year there was a decrease in international trade volumes by 13.8% (we are talking about the value, which is measured in USD). It should be noted that according to IMF esti- mates the growth of world GDP was 3.1% in the same 2015 year [1, p. 54]. The combination of moderately positive dynamics of GDP and sharply negative dynamics of world trade in 2015 year can lead to a situation where the world’s GDP may acquire a negative bias in 2016 year, i.e. there will be a global economic collapse (fig. 1). Fig. 1. Volume of world trade and GDP, % Note: compiled by the authors according to the World Trade Organization https://www.wto.org/english/res_e/sta- tis_e/its_e.htm. -20 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 The volume of world trade GDP Linear (The volume of world trade) International and Regional Economics L. Shabalina, A. Kapko 29 Економічний вісник Донбасу № 4(46), 2016 Experts explain the highly sharp falling of the world trade in 2015 year in different ways. First of all, they talk about a sharp drop in oil prices by 55.2% com- pared to 2014 year, as well as the depreciation of most national currencies against the USD, by means of which the value of world trade are measured. Many countries continued to supply sharply depreciating products by in- ertia for maintaining their market position in 2015 year. Attempts to stimulate exports by currency dumping will deplete the national economy even more [2]. Currency dumping is dangerous for the organiza- tion of international trade as it leads to a complete dis- ruption of the market and there is a possibility of a trade war. A country, that uses a currency dumping, increases the profits of exporters, but at the same time it reduces the living standards of the population because of in- creasing prices on the domestic market. Then the coun- try (the object of the currency dumping) reduces the de- velopment of the economy in different sectors that are not able to compete with cheap foreign goods. The result is raise of unemployment rate. In the structure of modern commerce, there is a ten- dency for proportion of agricultural products to reduce, while simultaneously there is rising tendency for share of manufactured goods in trade. Trade in knowledge-in- tensive and high-tech manufactures is increasing partic- ularly rapidly (table 1). Table 1 The structure of world trade Value, bln. USD 2014 Share in the world trade, % Annual percentage change 2000- 2005 2005- 2010 2010- 2014 2012 2013 2014 Agricultural products 1765 9,5 9 10 7 -1 5 2 Agricultural products (AoA) 1454 7,9 10 11 7 1 5 1 Non-agricultural goods 16850 91,1 10 8 5 0 2 1 Note: Agricultural products according to the AOA (WTO Agreement on Agriculture) definition refer to HS chapters 1 to 24 (excluding fish and fish products) and a number of manufactured agricultural products. This definition does not correspond to the definition of agricultural products presented in the breakdown of the structure of world trade. Note: compiled by the authors according to the World Trade Organization https://www.wto.org/english/res_e/sta- tis_e/its_e.htm. The largest exporter of agricultural products is the countries of South and Central America (30.6%) and im- porter is Africa (15.6%) (Table 2.). According to the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Na- tions (FAO), the proportion of agricultural exports is significant in some developing countries of South America with traditional agricultural specialization (Paraguay – 89.3%, Argentina – 51%, Brazil – 28%) and developed countries (New Zealand – 46.3%, Greece – 20.4%). The share of the largest food exporter (the USA) is 11.2% of world exports, and American export’s structure has a high degree of diversification with the predominance of soybeans, corn and wheat [4, p. 21]. Table 2 Share of agricultural products in trade in total merchandise and in primary products by region, 2014 [3, р. 73] Region Exports Imports Share in total merchandise Share in pri- mary products Share in total merchandise Share in primary products World 9,5 31,8 9,5 31,8 North America 11,1 40,0 6,9 30,3 South and Central America 30,6 43,3 9,4 29,3 Europe 10,6 48,7 10,5 36,7 Commonwealth of Independent States 9,2 12,2 12,0 52,0 Africa 11,5 15,4 15,6 47,1 Middle East 2,3 3,4 12,2 52,5 Asia 6,7 37,3 9,0 24,7 The imports’ volume of agricultural crops and live- stock products in value terms has a rising trend, where the greatest volume belongs to the countries of Europe and Asia. A noticeable decline (more than 10%) is ex- plained by the desire of countries to reduce costs during the years of the global financial crisis (fig. 2). A similar trend is observed in exports. However, major exporters are Europe and America (Fig. 3). The structure of America and Oceania is dominated by ex- ports, whereas import structure prevails in Europe, Asia and Africa. L. Shabalina, A. Kapko 30 Економічний вісник Донбасу № 4(46), 2016 Fig. 2. The imports’ volume of crops and livestock products, bln. USD Note: compiled by the authors according to FAOSTAT http://faostat3.fao.org/home/E. Fig. 3. The exports’ volume of crops and livestock products, bln. USD Note: compiled by the authors according to FAOSTAT http://faostat3.fao.org/home/E. The ongoing global financial crisis has a direct negative impact on the world food market, reducing food security in many countries (table. 3). So, during the past 4 years the index of food security of Russia has fallen by 4.3 points, Japan – by 2.3, Belgium – by 2.1. In these circumstances, the growth of food prices is becoming a major global problem, because first of all agricultural products become more expensive (table 4). Thus, the prices of agricultural products have increased by 11% from 2009 to 2010 years, from 2010 to 2011 – by another 22%. Despite the fact that in subsequent years there has been a marked decline in prices, if we take 2009 year as a basis, then prices tend to in- Table 3 Global food security index [5, p. 18] Country 2012 2013 2014 2015 4-years change Russia 68,1 66,5 64,1 63,8 -4,3 Japan 79,7 78,1 78,0 77,4 -2,3 Belgium 81,6 80,5 79,7 79,5 -2,1 Netherlands 86,6 84,7 85,1 85 -1,6 Finland 81,1 81,3 80,08 79,9 -1,1 France 84,9 84,5 83,9 83,8 -1,1 Greece 74,5 71,6 74,6 73,5 -1 Denmark 83,4 82,7 83,7 82,6 0,7 Switzerland 85 85,1 85,2 84,4 -0,6 Spain 79,3 79 80,5 78,9 -0,5 Brazil 67,8 68,8 68,4 67,4 -0,5 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Africa USA Asia Europe Oceania 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Africa USA Asia Europe Oceania L. Shabalina, A. Kapko 31 Економічний вісник Донбасу № 4(46), 2016 Table 4 Actual prices and forecast, the indices [7, p. 2] Actual prices Forecast 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Agricultural products 89 100 122 114 106 103 89 49 62 Foodstuffs 93 100 123 124 116 107 91 89 91 Crops 99 100 138 141 128 104 89 86 88 Food fats and oils 90 100 121 126 116 109 85 83 86 Other food products 90 100 111 107 104 108 100 100 101 Beverages 86 100 116 93 83 102 94 93 92 Note: 2010 is the base (2010 = 100%). crease. According to World Bank data, the increase in food prices will continue for another few years, and Goldman Sachs experts even put into circulation a new term “agflation” – a sharp rise in prices of agricultural products [6]. The share of TNCs in international trade exceeds half of its volume, and in some industries reaches 80 – 90%. Despite the fact that only 16% of the world's agri- cultural production is traded on international markets, agro-western TNCs have a significant impact on the dy- namics and structure of production and consumption of food worldwide. If we talk about agricultural products that are most dependent on TNCs, it is worth noting the wheat (90%), corn (85%), tea (75%) and bananas (70%) [8, p. 147]. There is a large number of multinationals, which are registered in different countries. Table 5 presents data of Fortune Global 500 largest companies, operating in the food markets, ranked by volume of sales. Table 5 The largest companies in the manufacturing of foodstuffs [9, p. 148] Company Country Sales volume, mln.USD Profit, mln. USD. Place in rating 2014 year Nestle Switzerland 99,45360 10,80780 72 Acher Daniels Midland USA 89,804 1,342 87 PepsiCo USA 66,415 6,740 137 Unilever Britain, Nether- lands 66,108.60 6,42810 140 Bunge USA 62,564.00 306 153 Wilmar International Singapore 44,085.00 1,31890 239 JBS Brazil 43,049.70 4295 251 Mondelez International, Inc USA 35,299 3,915 332 Tyson Foods, Inc USA 34,482 778 93 Danone France 28,27440 1,88780 429 At this stage of development, foreign corporations have full control over the number of key sub-sectors of Russian food industry, which is a direct threat to food security, as well as a negative impact on the national economy. The monopoly of multinational companies in the food market is the greatest damage to the domestic manufacturers as suppliers of raw materials for the pro- cessing industry. In most sub-sectors of Russian market the largest market share of food and beverage industry is owned by foreign corporations: almost 60% of the milk processing market, more than 70% of the juice products market, about 80% of the frozen fruits and veg- etables market, more than 90% of fruit and vegetable preservation market, more than 80% of the brewing market. So, today in Russia there are 10 major transna- tional corporations that produce most of the products purchased by Russians: Nestle, Cargill, PepsiCO, Kraft Foods, Coca-Cola, Kellogg's, P & G, Mars, General Mills, Unilever. Juice market is jointly controlled by Coca-Cola and PepsiCo, which is 40% of the Russian soft drinks market. PepsiCo and Danone-Unimilk con- trol dairy production, it is about 40% of the dairy market in Russia. Currently, domestic companies still retain the lead in the markets of the meat processing (company “Cher- kizovo” takes 13% of the RF’s market of meat products) and bakery products (Makfa – more than 23% of the to- tal pasta production in Russia), however, the same trend can be traced there - the absorption of small companies by large western ones [10]. In general, data on RF’s foreign trade of food indi- cates a fourfold excess of imports over exports in 2010, while total export exceeded the import by almost 2 times. The overall growth of Russian export is associ- ated largely with the growth of grain production and its L. Shabalina, A. Kapko 32 Економічний вісник Донбасу № 4(46), 2016 derivatives, increase in export’s volumes of fish, alco- holic beverages and vegetable oil. Being an exporter of many basic food commodi- ties, Russia has turned into a net importer. Situation has significantly changed in 2014 year, when the gap be- tween food exports and imports decreased by 2 times, due to the import substitution policy in terms of eco- nomic sanctions. In this regard, in 2014 year compared with 2013 year, the imports’ volume of agricultural raw materials and foodstuffs decreased by 8% and reached 39905 mln. USD, while the domestic production’s vol- ume of crops increased by almost 15% (Fig. 4). Fig. 4. Russian economic indicators of crops [5, p. 19] It should be noted that meat products manufactur- ing sector has made the greatest success in the food in- dustry. In 2014, the volume of meat production in- creased by 5% and reached 8911 thous. tons in farms of all categories, while imports of meat products decreased by 23% (table. 6). Sanctions and counter-embargo reduces Russia's export potential. Nevertheless, Russia remains the larg- est supplier of agricultural products. According to ex- perts of the Center for International Trade, Russia ex- ports its products to 140 countries. At the end of 2015 food exports could reach 20 bln. USD. More than two thirds of Russian export’s volume of food and agricul- tural products is focused on foreign countries, such as Germany, the Netherlands, Africa and China. Now, the base of Russian agricultural export is crops, vegetable oil, meat, poultry, fish and seafood [11]. Table 6 Manufacture of the main agricultural products [5, p. 20] 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Meat and meat products (thous. tons) Manufacture 7167 7460 8090 8545 8911 Import 2855 2687 2710 2480 1902 Milk and dairy products (thous. tons) Manufacture 31847 31718 31756 30529 30553 Import 8159 7936 8516 9445 8995 Potatoes (thous. tons) Manufacture 21141 32681 29533 30184 31502 Import 1122 1539 735 764 1045 Vegetables and melons food (thous. tons) Manufacture 13278 16270 16079 16109 16885 Import 3158 3155 2806 2817 2929 Eggs and egg products (mln. pcs.) Manufacture 40600 41113 42033 41286 41859 Import 901 1191 1345 1206 1235 Corn (mln. tons) Gross harvest 61 94,2 70,9 92,4 105,3 Import 0,4 0,7 1,2 1,5 0,9 Note: compiled by the authors according to Rosstat http://www.gks.ru/. 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 20 00 20 01 20 02 20 03 20 04 20 05 20 06 20 07 20 08 20 09 20 10 20 11 20 12 20 13 20 14 Manufacture, mln.tons Export, mln.tons 0 0,5 1 1,5 2 2,5 3 20 00 20 01 20 02 20 03 20 04 20 05 20 06 20 07 20 08 20 09 20 10 20 11 20 12 20 13 20 14 Import, mln.tons L. Shabalina, A. Kapko 33 Економічний вісник Донбасу № 4(46), 2016 Replacement of expensive products for cheaper did not lead to lower prices for the products in retail, as lo- gistics costs increased. In other categories there was a replacement of cheaper products for more expensive. There is a tendency of imbalance in the structure of food consumption, while in recent years there is a posi- tive trend of convergence of the actual and the recom- mended standards set by the Ministry of health and so- cial development of the Russian Federation. So, if we compare standards to actual consumption pattern, we can draw the following conclusions. Firstly, meat and meat products (deviation - 21,9%), milk and dairy products (-14,7%), vegetables and melons (-18,1%), fruits and berries (-40%) are not enough in the structure of Russian population’s nutri- tion. Secondly, there is excessive consumption of grain products (+20.5%) and potatoes (+0,6%) (table. 7). Table 7 The comparison of the norms with the actual structure of food consumption in RF [12] Nomination Consumption (average per person per year) Rational standards the working-age population pensioners children kg/year/person Grain products, kg 126,5 98,2 77,6 95-105 Potatoes, kg 100,4 80 88,1 95-100 Vegetables and melons, kg 114,6 98 112,5 120-140 Fresh fruits, kg 60 45 118,1 90-100 Sugar, kg 23,8 21,2 21,8 24-28 Meat products, kg 58,6 54 44 70-75 Fish products, kg 18,5 16 18,6 18-22 Milk, kg 290 257,8 360,7 320-340 Eggs, pieces 210 200 201 260 pieces Vegetable oil, kg 11 10 5 10-12 Other products, kg 4,9 4,2 3,5 2,5-3,5 Thirdly, Russia's accession to WTO had a negative impact on the state of the domestic fish market. Export duties were reduced considerably, it led to fish exports growth to South-East Asia. Thus, there is the overall growth of fish catch (4.3 mln. tons) with declined fish delivery to the domestic market. Fourthly, there is a lack of food affordability. The problem of poverty is quite acute in Russia. According to State Statistics Committee, the proportion of the pop- ulation with incomes below the subsistence minimum amounted to 23 mln. pers., or 16% of the population in 2015 year [12]. There remains money polarization of in- come distribution of the population, both in social groups and in inter-regional aspect. Accordingly, it re- tains a deep differentiation of food consumption by the population of the various social groups. Fifthly, there is a lack of physical accessibility of food. Agricultural production is carried out only by 12 – 13% of the territory in Russia. At the same time it is distributed very unevenly across the territory: 14 regions provide over 40% of the gross output of the agricultural sector. The irregularity of agricultural production may threaten food security of individual regions [13, p. 116]. Such risks of food security, as the erosion of small farms and the excessive concentration of agricultural production, as well as the accountability of a large part of the largest manufacturers of agricultural products and foodstuffs to foreign legal entities (over 50%) justified in Russia. There is a lack of funding from the regional budget for research and development for future imple- mentation into crop and livestock production [14, p. 8]. The lack of various fairs and exhibitions can be also highlighted. Therefore, it is advisable to conduct such activities, as the “Prodexpo”, for maintaining Russian exporters and discovering new potential export destina- tions, as well as establishing new international contacts to smooth the acute geopolitical situation. So, the decreasing in the world’s trade, as well as the decreasing in the share of agricultural products in its structure was revealed. The analysis showed the domi- nant role of TNCs in the food sector in the world in gen- eral, and in Russia. The increasing of production and ex- ports with a simultaneous decreasing of the imports’ volume was noted in Russia, which is typical for the im- port substitution policy. The basic problems in Russian food sector, such as the unbalanced structure of food consumption, insufficient economic and physical access to food, lack of funding for research and development, etc were identified. References 1. Druck P. Collateral Damage / P. Druck, N. Magud, R. Mariscal // Finance and Developmen. – 2015. – №4 (52). – Р. 52-55. 2. Катасонов В. Мировая торговля: тревожные симптомы 2015 года [Элек- тронный ресурс] / В. Катасонов // Фонд стратегиче- ской культуры. – 2016. – №3 (Март). – Режим до- ступа: http://www.fondsk.ru/news/ 2016/03/02/miro vaja-torgovla-trevozhnye-simptomy-2015-goda-38897. html. 3. International Trade Statistics 2015. – Switzer- L. Shabalina, A. 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Виявлено істотний вплив ТНК на росій- ський ринок продовольства та сільськогосподарсь- кої сировини. Визначено проблеми розвитку, місце та перспективи Росії на світовому ринку продоволь- ства в умовах політики імпортозаміщення. Ключові слова: міжнародна торгівля, експорт, імпорт, продовольчий сектор, імпортозаміщення. Шабалина Л. В., Капко А. В. Анализ россий- ского рынка продовольственных товаров и сель- скохозяйственного сырья в современных усло- виях хозяйствования В статье проанализированы особенности и тен- денции в товарной структуре и географических по- токах торговли России. Выявлено существенное влияние ТНК на российский рынок продовольствия и сельскохозяйственного сырья. Определены проб- лемы развития, место и перспективы России на ми- ровом рынке продовольствия в условиях политики импортозамещения. Ключевые слова: международная торговля, экс- порт, импорт, продовольственный сектор, импорто- замещение. Shabalina L., Kapko A. Analysis of Russian market of foodstuffs and agricultural raw materials in modern conditions of managing The paper analyzes the characteristics and trends in the product structure and geographical flows of Russia’s trade. A significant influence of TNCs on the Russian market of food and agricultural raw materials was de- tected. The developmental problems, place and pro- spects of Russia on the global food market in terms of import substitution policy were identified. Keywords: international trade, export, import, food sector, import substitution. Received by the editors: 26.10.2016 and final form 28.12.2016

Analysis of Russian market of foodstuffs and agricultural raw materials in modern conditions of managing

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