Application of Cartographic Modelling as a research method when monitoring the spatial behaviour of population
There is presented the cartographical modeling as efficient method to monitor the spatial behaviour of population. The author examines the common notion of a method, the cognition properties of cartographical models and necessary methodical premises to ensure an adequate representation of essent...
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Iнститут соціології НАН України
2015
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irk-123456789-1152832017-03-31T03:02:31Z Application of Cartographic Modelling as a research method when monitoring the spatial behaviour of population Pribytkova, I. There is presented the cartographical modeling as efficient method to monitor the spatial behaviour of population. The author examines the common notion of a method, the cognition properties of cartographical models and necessary methodical premises to ensure an adequate representation of essential features of the population’s spatial behaviour or other investigated phenomena (processes, structures). In the author’s opinion the cartographical modeling may be regarded as one of the modifications of latent structure analysis which is able to reveal and distinguish the latent groups of population with peculiar social organization, material and cultural consumption, goals, preferences and behaviour. There are demonstrated the cartographical models of spatial disposition of rural population in able-bodied age in Ukraine which give a clear view of the geographical location of rural inhabitants and their concentration or dispersion in certain regions of countryside. These models discover the important spatial relations between movements of rural inhabitants and urbanization in Uk raine. Comparing these models we come to the conclusion that concentration of urban and concentration of rural population within the bounds of the Ukraine are two sides of one and the same process of urbanization. In this process, towns and cities perform the duties of peculiar nuclei for crystallization of new socio-spatial structures of rural resettling. The demographic consequences of spatial self-organization of country people are highly various, closely tied and are displayed first of all in different types of dynamics. With a view to investigate the types of population changes in the country side of Ukraine in 1970–1978 — in a moment when the demographic transition was over — the author elaborated the cartograms with types of rural population dynamics after J. W. Webb’s model. It is obvious that the depopulation and migratory losses brought about the irreparable consequences for rural population practically in all regions of Ukraine. 2015 Article Application of Cartographic Modelling as a research method when monitoring the spatial behaviour of population / I. Pribytkova // Социология: теория, методы, маркетинг. — 2015. — № 3. — С. 153-165. — Бібліогр.: 4 назв. — англ. 1563-4426 http://dspace.nbuv.gov.ua/handle/123456789/115283 303.432 311.218 314.186.3 en Социология: теория, методы, маркетинг Iнститут соціології НАН України |
| institution |
Digital Library of Periodicals of National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine |
| collection |
DSpace DC |
| language |
English |
| description |
There is presented the cartographical modeling as efficient method to monitor the spatial
behaviour of population. The author examines the common notion of a method, the
cognition properties of cartographical models and necessary methodical premises to
ensure an adequate representation of essential features of the population’s spatial
behaviour or other investigated phenomena (processes, structures). In the author’s
opinion the cartographical modeling may be regarded as one of the modifications of
latent structure analysis which is able to reveal and distinguish the latent groups of
population with peculiar social organization, material and cultural consumption, goals,
preferences and behaviour. There are demonstrated the cartographical models of spatial
disposition of rural population in able-bodied age in Ukraine which give a clear view of
the geographical location of rural inhabitants and their concentration or dispersion in
certain regions of countryside. These models discover the important spatial relations
between movements of rural inhabitants and urbanization in Uk raine. Comparing these
models we come to the conclusion that concentration of urban and concentration of rural
population within the bounds of the Ukraine are two sides of one and the same process of
urbanization. In this process, towns and cities perform the duties of peculiar nuclei for
crystallization of new socio-spatial structures of rural resettling. The demographic
consequences of spatial self-organization of country people are highly various, closely
tied and are displayed first of all in different types of dynamics. With a view
to investigate the types of population changes in the country side of Ukraine in
1970–1978 — in a moment when the demographic transition was over — the author
elaborated the cartograms with types of rural population dynamics after J. W. Webb’s
model. It is obvious that the depopulation and migratory losses brought about the
irreparable consequences for rural population practically in all regions of Ukraine. |
| format |
Article |
| author |
Pribytkova, I. |
| spellingShingle |
Pribytkova, I. Application of Cartographic Modelling as a research method when monitoring the spatial behaviour of population Социология: теория, методы, маркетинг |
| author_facet |
Pribytkova, I. |
| author_sort |
Pribytkova, I. |
| title |
Application of Cartographic Modelling as a research method when monitoring the spatial behaviour of population |
| title_short |
Application of Cartographic Modelling as a research method when monitoring the spatial behaviour of population |
| title_full |
Application of Cartographic Modelling as a research method when monitoring the spatial behaviour of population |
| title_fullStr |
Application of Cartographic Modelling as a research method when monitoring the spatial behaviour of population |
| title_full_unstemmed |
Application of Cartographic Modelling as a research method when monitoring the spatial behaviour of population |
| title_sort |
application of cartographic modelling as a research method when monitoring the spatial behaviour of population |
| publisher |
Iнститут соціології НАН України |
| publishDate |
2015 |
| url |
http://dspace.nbuv.gov.ua/handle/123456789/115283 |
| citation_txt |
Application of Cartographic Modelling as a research method when monitoring the spatial behaviour of population / I. Pribytkova // Социология: теория, методы, маркетинг. — 2015. — № 3. — С. 153-165. — Бібліогр.: 4 назв. — англ. |
| series |
Социология: теория, методы, маркетинг |
| work_keys_str_mv |
AT pribytkovai applicationofcartographicmodellingasaresearchmethodwhenmonitoringthespatialbehaviourofpopulation |
| first_indexed |
2025-07-08T08:31:58Z |
| last_indexed |
2025-07-08T08:31:58Z |
| _version_ |
1837066900207566848 |
| fulltext |
Iryna Pribytkova
Application of Cartographic Modelling as a research method
IRYNA PRIBYTKOVA,UDC 303.432
311.218
314.186.3 professor, leading researcher of the Institute of
Sociology NAS of Ukraine
Application of Cartographic Modeling
as a research method when monitoring
the spatial behaviour of population
Annotation
There is presented the cartographical modeling as efficient method to monitor the spatial
behaviour of population. The author examines the common notion of a method, the
cognition properties of cartographical models and necessary methodical premises to
ensure an adequate representation of essential features of the population’s spatial
behaviour or other investigated phenomena (processes, structures). In the author’s
opinion the cartographical modeling may be regarded as one of the modifications of
latent structure analysis which is able to reveal and distinguish the latent groups of
population with peculiar social organization, material and cultural consumption, goals,
preferences and behaviour. There are demonstrated the cartographical models of spatial
disposition of rural population in able-bodied age in Ukraine which give a clear view of
the geographical location of rural inhabitants and their concentration or dispersion in
certain regions of countryside. These models discover the important spatial relations
between movements of rural inhabitants and urbanization in Uk raine. Comparing these
models we come to the conclusion that concentration of urban and concentration of rural
population within the bounds of the Ukraine are two sides of one and the same process of
urbanization. In this process, towns and cities perform the duties of peculiar nuclei for
crystallization of new socio-spatial structures of rural resettling. The demographic
consequences of spatial self-organization of country people are highly various, closely
tied and are displayed first of all in different types of dynamics. With a view
to investigate the types of population changes in the country side of Ukraine in
1970–1978 — in a moment when the demographic transition was over — the author
elaborated the cartograms with types of rural population dynamics after J. W. Webb’s
model. It is obvious that the depopulation and migratory losses brought about the
irreparable consequences for rural population practically in all regions of Ukraine.
Keywords: cartographical method of research, latent structures of population, spatial
self-organization of country people as on-going process, types of population changes
after J. W. Webb’s model, the end of demographic transition in Ukraine
Со ци о ло гия: те о рия, ме то ды, мар ке тинг, 2015, 3 153
The common notion on a method
The cartographical mod el ing be longs to the sys tem of com mon sci en tific
meth ods used in search of new knowl edge and its prov ing. The study of spa tial re -
la tions is based on a map pro vid ing the most com plete de scrip tion and com pre -
hen sion of any ter ri to rial prob lems.
Many re search ers per ceive the maps only as il lus tra tion for text or fig ures
hav ing no in de pend ent sci en tific value. Mean while the map is none other than
in for ma tion sys tem, chan nel for trans mit ting of spa tial in for ma tion. Carto -
graphical lan guage can be re garded as the pe cu liar sign sys tem: the cartogra -
phical im ages are the pri mary means to trans fer the in for ma tion. Giv ing rise to vi -
sual no tions, the cartographical im ages en able to ob tain the in te gral per ceiv ing of
spa tial struc tures. When an a lyz ing the fig ures in the ta bles the thought and at -
ten tion of re searcher are dis tracted from the gen eral to the par tic u lar. Carto -
graphical im ages, as a means of trans mit ting of spa tial re la tions, prove to be im -
mea sur ably stron ger than al ge braic sym bols be cause the ob ject mode of think ing
is more ef fec tive than for mal.
The cartographical lan guage has many pos i tive qual i ties. It is uni ver sal and
gets over all speech bar ri ers with out dif fi cul ties. It has a la conic and ca pa cious
char ac ter and en ables to ex press the judg ments in the lap i dary form. And at last it
has the two-di men sional na ture. All these prop er ties of a map lan guage en large to
a con sid er able ex tent the in for ma tion ca pac i ties of a cartographical model. Just
the two-di men sional char ac ter of cartographical lin guis tic sys tem af fords the
pos si bil i ties for the in ves ti ga tion of spa tial re la tions.
The map gives new in for ma tion of more high or der on map ping phe nom ena
which is hid den in ini tial fig ures. This new in for ma tion one have got due to gen er -
al iza tion of sta tis tics is of par tic u lar value to sci en tific re search and prac ti cal
needs. The pro cess of gen er al iza tion re sults in dis cov ery of the cartographical
struc tures form ing a cer tain sys tem. Anal y sis of these struc tures en ables the rev e -
la tion of spa tial reg u lar i ties in dis po si tion, pro por tion, com bi na tion and dy nam -
ics of socio-de mo graphic and socio-eco nom i cal pro cesses and phe nom ena.
The cognition properties of cartographical model
The cartographical model represents the scientific abstraction received in
consequence of generalization of concrete properties of studied objects. The abst -
ract character of generalized cartographical model A. Berliant defines as one of the
main positive qualities of a map: applying to its contents the researcher can observe
not only separate or systematized factual statistics but also an integral spatial
image. He meets with “system of notions”, appearing in the course of map compo -
sition and fixed in the cartographical model and its legend [Berliant, 1978: p. 19].
Besides, the cartographical modeling provides the transition from discrete to
continuous knowledge. This is the only method to obtain the continuous picture
of spatially unbroken phenomena on the basis of discrete factual information
[Aslanikashvili, 1974]. The importance of uninterrupted knowledge contained in
the cartographical model is conditioned not only by its possibility to reveal the
changes of investigated process or phenomena “from place to place” but also by its
154 Со ци о ло гия: те о рия, ме то ды, мар ке тинг, 2015, 3
Iryna Pribytkova
potentialities to bring to light a significant spatial relations between them and
other social and natural processes and phenomena represented in the given model
(map). A new knowledge obtained in the course of modeling serves as a basis for
working out of the management decisions.
The methodological premises
It is ex pe di ent from the meth od olog i cal point of view to re search the spa tial
struc tures and reg u lar i ties of their de vel op ment on the ba sis of cartographical
anal y sis of frac tional ad min is tra tive units — ru ral ad min is tra tive re gions and
within the bounds of the last — on a scale of vil lage coun cils. The re gions and
prov inces are too large-scale ter ri to rial units for such in ves ti ga tion. Cartographi -
cal mod el ing on a scale of prov inces en ables to carry out the macro-di vi sion of ter -
ri tory into dis tricts by ex am ined sign and to re veal only the lev els of its in ten sity
in the spa tial as pect.
The prep a ra tion of ini tial data is a pre vi ous stage of cartographical mod el ing.
Rel e vant meth ods are de fined by goals and tasks of mod el ing in ev ery con crete
case. The method of data groups, for ex am ple, is used as a ba sic prin ci ple when
com pos ing the sta tis ti cal maps known as cartograms that are in stru men tal for re -
veal ing of reg u lar i ties in spa tial dis tri bu tion of map ping signs. The group ing of
sta tis ti cal data is si mul ta neously car ried out by geo graph ical sign and by size of
in di ces.
The cor rect choice of value in ter vals of sta tis ti cal in di ces used for pro ce dure
of group ing is es pe cially im por tant stage when work ing out the cartogram. Pre ci -
sion of spa tial model de pends on size of these in ter vals. It is ex pe di ent to se lect
them by method of con sec u tive ap prox i ma tion. On the one hand, such an or der
helps to avoid the ex ces sive, un nec es sary de tail ing in the pic ture of spa tial struc -
ture of mod el ing pro cess or phe nom ena and, on the other hand, to en sure an ad e -
quate rep re sen ta tion of its es sen tial fea tures. There is no need to use any stan -
dard ized scale of gra da tion or purely me chan i cal sta tis ti cal meth ods/modes.
In ev ery con crete case when de fin ing the lim its of in ter vals, one must take
into con sid er ation not only the range of val ues dis tri bu tion proper but also the
ne ces sity to show the ex ist ing dif fer ences in the spa tial struc ture of in ves ti gated
phe nom ena (processes, structures).
Cartographical modeling of latent structures
The cartographical modeling may be regarded as one of the modification of
latent structure analysis which pursues an object to reveal and distinguish the
latent groups of population with peculiar social organization, material and cultu -
ral consumption, goals, preferences and behaviour.
The analysis of latent structure is to be started with appraisal of empirical
data and working out of hypothesis on the presence of a few definite groups of
population forming the latent structure. And after that the proposed hypothesis
has to be verified in the statistical respect on the basis of factual data. The model
of latent structure tests the fact of presence of postulated groups, but more deep
penetration into essence of problem calls for additional information.
Со ци о ло гия: те о рия, ме то ды, мар ке тинг, 2015, 3 155
Application of Cartographic Modelling as a research method
The revelation of latent structures as the instrument of analysis may be of use
also when studying the population attitudes towards different problems, for
statistical interpretation of regional distinctions in the structure of people’s
consumption, for explaining of the intensity of population moving within the
urban and rural areas, for estimation of life conditions inside of cities and their
suburbs etcetera.
The data for study of population behaviour or measuring of social structure
parameters may be received in the course of sociological surveys of public opinion
or may be got from current statistical returns. The last source of information is
more preferable.
The cartographical model, worked out on the basis of a current statistics on
size and structure of rural population, enables to reveal the system of regions with
specific socio-group organization of their inhabitants. In other words, this model
confirms the existence of latent groups of population in the countryside and
indicates their localization in the space.
Monitoring of spatial behaviour of rural population
The permanent observation of current statistical information during a long
time creates the necessary prerequisites for organization of data base. The collec -
tion of statistical data, their standardization and compiling of series of relevant
maps are integral parts of monitoring as a system of supervision and control after
the processes of spatial behaviour of population.
The appropriate statistical data for analysis should to meet the demands of a
highest possible spatial detailing, uniformity, simultaneity, authenticity, con -
tinuity and comparability. The infringement of least one of these demands results
in lowering of cognitive value of initial information and obtaining rather pro ba -
ble than true knowledge of the research subject.
The scientific programme of monitoring includes also the working out of
prognoses concerning eventual changes in the course of spatial self-organization
of people, providing it with necessary information on possible unfavorable con -
sequen ces, appraisals of regulation decisions and their efficiency.
The revealing of regularities in behaviour of rural population in Ukraine in
process of spatial self-organization is based on the analysis of statistics for the last
fifty years. So far as territorial movement of population is closely bound up with
alteration of place and character of labour (in other words it is the movement of
mainly able-bodied contingents), only the rural population in working age was
chosen as an object of modeling.
The cartographical models of spatial disposition of rural population in able-
bodied age in Ukraine give a clear view of the geographical location of rural
inhabitants and their concentration or dispersion in definite regions of country -
side (Figures 1, 2, 3, 4). The comparison of identical models gives us the notion
about the nature and rate of changes and development of spatial structures and
discovers the important spatial relations between movements of rural inhabi -
tants and urbanization in Ukraine. We come to the conclusion that concentration
of urban and concentration of rural population within the bounds of the Ukraine are
two sides of one and the same process of urbanization. Towns and cities perform in
156 Со ци о ло гия: те о рия, ме то ды, мар ке тинг, 2015, 3
Iryna Pribytkova
Со ци о ло гия: те о рия, ме то ды, мар ке тинг, 2015, 3 157
Application of Cartographic Modelling as a research method
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158 Со ци о ло гия: те о рия, ме то ды, мар ке тинг, 2015, 3
Iryna Pribytkova
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Со ци о ло гия: те о рия, ме то ды, мар ке тинг, 2015, 3 159
Application of Cartographic Modelling as a research method
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160 Со ци о ло гия: те о рия, ме то ды, мар ке тинг, 2015, 3
Iryna Pribytkova
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this process the duties of peculiar nuclei for crystallization for a new socio-spaial
structures of rural resettling. The large cities with strong economical potential and
diverse functions have the greatest influence on the level of concentration of
rural able-bodied inhabitants and area of their location in suburbs. At the same
time, one can observe the rise of separate hotbeds and then whole zones where the
dispersion of rural population and destructive demographic processes advance
with a high speed.
The deep changes in the structure of spatial self-organization of rural po -
pulation take place over a long period of time. The main point of this process lies
in the permanent deepening of its territorial polarization. The demographical
consequences of spatial self-organization of country people are highly various,
closely tied and are evinced first of all in different types of dynamics and age
structure of rural population in the regions of its concentration and dispersion
[Pribytkova, 2009: p. 95-96].
Types of rural population changes in Ukraine in 1970-1978
At a moment, when the demographic transition was over, the depopulation
and migratory losses brought about the irreparable consequences for rural popu -
lation practically in all regions of Ukraine. Let us address the results of analysis,
fulfilled after J. W. Webb’s model, with a view to investigate the types of
population changes in the countryside of Ukraine in 1970-1978. This method
gives a possibility to mark out eight basic types of dynamics that reflect not only
the direction of population change (growth or diminution) but also the corre -
lation of its forming sources (natural and migration movements) and the cha -
racter of its dynamics (Figure 5).
Fig. 5. Types of population changes (after J. W. Webb’s model)
Со ци о ло гия: те о рия, ме то ды, мар ке тинг, 2015, 3 161
Application of Cartographic Modelling as a research method
Population increase: natural increase
exceeds migrationoutflow
Population decrease: natural
decrease exceeds migration outflow
Population decrease: natural
decrease exceeds migration inflow
Population increase: natural increase
exceeds migration inflow
Population increase: migration
inflow exceeds natural increase
Population increase: migration
inflow exceeds natural decrease
Population decrease: migration
outflow exceeds natural increase
Population decrease: migration
outflow exceeds natural decrease
IIIII
IIV
V
VI VII
VIII
Natural decreaseNatural decrease
Natural increaseNatural increase
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e)
The grouping of rural administrative regions of Ukraine by J. W. Webb’s
model (Webb J. W., 1963) shows that the tendencies and structure of rural
population changes keep within the next types of dynamics in 1970-1973: I, II, III
and VIII (growth of population); IV and V (decrease of population); and inter -
mediate type of stationary population. The overwhelming majority of rural
administrative regions in Ukraine (400 out of 476) belong to IV and V types; 270
regions, where the migration outflow exceeds a natural increase, belong to IV
type; and 130 regions belong to V type (migration outflow exceeds natural
decrease). The stationary population (natural increase and migration outflow are
equal in size) is observed only in two rural administrative regions (Figure 6).
The growth of population took place only in 76 regions. 12 out of them belong
to I type. Those ones are mainly the suburban regions of large administ rative,
industrial and cultural centres of Ukraine — Kiev, Kharkov, Dniepro petrovsk,
Lugansk, Poltava, Kryvoi Rog. Here the population has grown under exceeding
of migration inflow above the natural increase. The population increase by II type
was observed in other 10 rural administrative regions. Here a natural increase
exceeded the migration inflow. Those were mainly the regions of Black Sea coast.
The positive dynamics was present also in 52 other rural regions: here the
natural increase exceeded the migration outflow (III type). Those were, as a rule,
the suburban regions of province centres of Ukraine. And, at last, the growth of
population took place in two suburban regions of Dniepropetrovsk, where the
migration inflow exceeded a natural decrease (VIII type).
Analysis of rural population changes over the longer period of time — from
1970 to 1978 — leads to conclusion on extremely high rate of its worsening
towards the end of demographic transition. There were only 60 rural regions by
1979 where the growth of population was observed. At the same time the number
of regions with negative dynamics of rural population has grown to 417. All four
types of rural population increase (I, II, III and VIII) are represented within the
Ukraine. The decrease of rural population proceeds by IV, V and VI types. And
VII type of dynamics (natural decrease exceeds migration inflow) was absent in
Ukraine in 1970-1978 (Figure 7).
The number of regions, where diminution of rural population proceeds by
V type (migration outflow exceeds natural decrease), has noticeably grown and
ran to 170. Its portion constituted 35.6% of whole number of rural administrative
regions in Ukraine. The upgrowth of their number took place at the expense of
those regions which have belonged before to IV type (migration outflow exceeds
natural increase).
In central regions of Ukraine and its north a vast zone has shaped where the
decrease of population proceeded in 1970-ties on a large scale and with heigh -
tened speed. It led to irreversible demographic losses within the bounds of these
territories and to spreading of sparsely populated areas within the countryside
[Pribytkova, 2009: p. 153-154].
Concluding remarks
— Rise in the number of rural inhabitants at the able-bodied age and increase in
amount of large villages in the suburbs are accompanied by improving of
demographical structure of rural population in these areas. A social and
162 Со ци о ло гия: те о рия, ме то ды, мар ке тинг, 2015, 3
Iryna Pribytkova
Со ци о ло гия: те о рия, ме то ды, мар ке тинг, 2015, 3 163
Application of Cartographic Modelling as a research method
Fi
g.
6
. T
yp
es
o
f r
ur
al
p
op
ul
at
io
n
ch
an
ge
s
in
U
kr
ai
ne
in
1
97
0-
19
73
(
by
J
. W
. W
eb
b)
1
—
I
t
yp
e;
2
—
I
I
ty
pe
; 3
—
I
II
t
yp
e;
4
—
I
V
ty
pe
; 5
—
V
t
yp
e;
6
—
in
te
rm
ed
ia
te
t
yp
e
of
s
ta
ti
on
ar
y
po
pu
la
ti
on
(
na
tu
ra
l i
nc
re
as
e
an
d
m
ig
ra
ti
on
o
ut
fl
ow
a
re
e
qu
al
in
s
iz
e)
; 7
—
V
II
t
yp
e
164 Со ци о ло гия: те о рия, ме то ды, мар ке тинг, 2015, 3
Iryna Pribytkova
Fi
g.
7
. T
yp
es
o
f r
ur
al
p
op
ul
at
io
n
ch
an
ge
s
in
U
kr
ai
ne
in
1
97
0-
19
78
(
by
J
. W
. W
eb
b)
1
—
I
t
yp
e;
2
—
I
I
ty
pe
; 3
—
I
II
t
yp
e;
4
—
I
V
ty
pe
; 5
—
V
t
yp
e;
6
—
V
I
ty
pe
; 7
—
V
II
I
ty
pe
territorial mobility of village inhabitants is gaining in strength and scope, the
structure of employment changes for the better.
— At the same time destructive demographical processes are observed in the
rural areas of dispersion. Reproductive activity is reduced, mortality rises
rapidly, the life expectancy at birth is growing shorter, and the age structure
of rural population is getting worse and worse.
— The spatial self-organization of rural inhabitants within the Ukraine is
on-going process. It should be expected for subsequent deepening of dis -
proportion in age structure of rural population in the areas of dispersion,
lessening of their number and decrease of labour potential in countryside.
References
Aslanikashvili A.F. Metacartography. Basic Problems. – Tbilisi: Metsniereba, 1974.
(Russian).
Berliant A.M. Cartographical method of research. – Moscow: Moscow State University
Publishing House, 1978.
Pribytkova I.M. Spatial self-organization of population: Theoretical and methodological
preconditions of investigation // Sociology: theory, methods, marketing. – 2009. № 4. –
C. 84-98. (Russian, Ukrainian).
Webb J.W. The Natural and Migrational Components of Population Changes in England
and Wales, 1921-1931 // Econom. Geogr. – 1963. – Vol. 39. – № 2.
Со ци о ло гия: те о рия, ме то ды, мар ке тинг, 2015, 3 165
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