Let Climate take Time-Out
Insufficient time has passed to demonstrate that the increase in Earth’s temperature from 1970-th to 2000 was caused by increasing CO₂, resulting from the burning of fossil fuels. Major changes in Earth’s surface temperature during the last million years of glacial periods and interglacials were app...
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Інститут газу НАН України
2010
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| Schriftenreihe: | Энерготехнологии и ресурсосбережение |
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| Zitieren: | Let Climate take Time-Out / D.G. Gee // Энерготехнологии и ресурсосбережение. — 2010. — № 2. — С. 55-56. — англ. |
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irk-123456789-1268242017-12-04T03:02:51Z Let Climate take Time-Out Gee, D.G. Охрана окружающей среды Insufficient time has passed to demonstrate that the increase in Earth’s temperature from 1970-th to 2000 was caused by increasing CO₂, resulting from the burning of fossil fuels. Major changes in Earth’s surface temperature during the last million years of glacial periods and interglacials were apparently not driven by changes in CO₂ in the atmosphere. Пройшло недостатньо часу для демонстрації того, що причиною підвищення температури Землі у період між 1970 та 2000 рр. є підвищення вмісту CO₂ внаслідок спалювання викопних палив. Більшість змін у температурі поверхні Землі на протязі останнього мільйона років під час льодовикових та міжльодовикових періодів відбувались не внаслідок змін концентрації CO₂ у атмосфері. Прошло недостаточно времени для демонстрации того, что причиной повышения температуры Земли в период с 1970 по 2000 год является повышение содержания CO₂ вследствие сжигания ископаемых топлив. Большинство изменений в температуре поверхности Земли в течение последнего миллиона лет во время ледниковых и межледниковых периодов происходило не вследствие изменений концентрации CO₂ в атмосфере. 2010 Article Let Climate take Time-Out / D.G. Gee // Энерготехнологии и ресурсосбережение. — 2010. — № 2. — С. 55-56. — англ. 0235-3482 http://dspace.nbuv.gov.ua/handle/123456789/126824 661.97:551.5 en Энерготехнологии и ресурсосбережение Інститут газу НАН України |
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English |
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Охрана окружающей среды Охрана окружающей среды |
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Охрана окружающей среды Охрана окружающей среды Gee, D.G. Let Climate take Time-Out Энерготехнологии и ресурсосбережение |
| description |
Insufficient time has passed to demonstrate that the increase in Earth’s temperature from 1970-th to 2000 was caused by increasing CO₂, resulting from the burning of fossil fuels. Major changes in Earth’s surface temperature during the last million years of glacial periods and interglacials were apparently not driven by changes in CO₂ in the atmosphere. |
| format |
Article |
| author |
Gee, D.G. |
| author_facet |
Gee, D.G. |
| author_sort |
Gee, D.G. |
| title |
Let Climate take Time-Out |
| title_short |
Let Climate take Time-Out |
| title_full |
Let Climate take Time-Out |
| title_fullStr |
Let Climate take Time-Out |
| title_full_unstemmed |
Let Climate take Time-Out |
| title_sort |
let climate take time-out |
| publisher |
Інститут газу НАН України |
| publishDate |
2010 |
| topic_facet |
Охрана окружающей среды |
| url |
http://dspace.nbuv.gov.ua/handle/123456789/126824 |
| citation_txt |
Let Climate take Time-Out / D.G. Gee // Энерготехнологии и ресурсосбережение. — 2010. — № 2. — С. 55-56. — англ. |
| series |
Энерготехнологии и ресурсосбережение |
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AT geedg letclimatetaketimeout |
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2025-07-09T05:47:20Z |
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2025-07-09T05:47:20Z |
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| fulltext |
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change (IPCC) told the world, in 2007, that it was
90 % certain that the warming of the planet during
the last thirty years had been largely due to CO2,
generated by the burning of fossil fuels. This expres-
sion of certainty by IPCC was political; it had
nothing to do with the science. Despite an alliance
with science from conception, birth and early mar-
riage in the 1980’s, IPCC has been primarily a politi-
cal organization, thriving under the auspices of the
United Nations.
Measurements of Earth surface temperature
and CO2 in the atmosphere, from the mid 1970’s
to about 2000, show that both have been rising.
Whether the latter causes the former, or the for-
mer the latter (with CO2 being of little rele-
vance — too trivial to influence on-going natu-
ral change), is open to debate. But, under all
circumstances, what is happening to climate to-
day can only be understood in a longer term his-
torical context. A focus on the last thirty years
tells us nothing; it presents a hypothesis, some
would say a plausible hypothesis; no more.
Fig. 1 shows generally accepted surface temper-
ature data since the end of the Little Ice Age. Over
this period, for the last 160 years, temperature has
gone up 0,7–0,8 �C, essentially thanks to two inter-
vals of relatively rapid warming, the first between
1910–1940 and the second 1970–2000, separated by a
thirty-year period of cooling. If we plot CO2 to-
gether with the temperature curve (see the lower
panel on Fig.1), it is obvious, at a glance, that
there is no simple correlation between them. From
1850 to 1950, CO2 went up about 20 ppm (from 290
ppm to 310 ppm) and from 1950 to 2000 about 75
ppm, i.e. for the first hundred years at about
0.2 ppm/year and, during the following fifty years
gently increasing to ten times this rate (i.e.
2 ppm/year).
After the last glacial maximum, about 22 000
years ago, temperature jumped 10 �C and the
Ýíåðãîòåõíîëîãèè è ðåñóðñîñáåðåæåíèå. 2010. ¹ 2 55
UDK 661.97:551.5
Let Climate take Time-Out
Gee D.G.
Uppsala University, Sweden
Insufficient time has passed to demonstrate that the increase in Earth’s temperature from
1970-th to 2000 was caused by increasing CO2, resulting from the burning of fossil fuels.
Major changes in Earth’s surface temperature during the last million years of glacial pe-
riods and interglacials were apparently not driven by changes in CO2 in the atmosphere.
Êëþ÷åâûå ñëîâà: climate, warming, carbon dioxide, temperature.
Ïðîéøëî íåäîñòàòíüî ÷àñó äëÿ äåìîíñòðàö³¿ òîãî, ùî ïðè÷èíîþ ï³äâèùåííÿ òåìïåðà-
òóðè Çåìë³ ó ïåð³îä ì³æ 1970 òà 2000 ðð. º ï³äâèùåííÿ âì³ñòó CO2 âíàñë³äîê ñïàëþ-
âàííÿ âèêîïíèõ ïàëèâ. Á³ëüø³ñòü çì³í ó òåìïåðàòóð³ ïîâåðõí³ Çåìë³ íà ïðîòÿç³
îñòàííüîãî ì³ëüéîíà ðîê³â ï³ä ÷àñ ëüîäîâèêîâèõ òà ì³æëüîäîâèêîâèõ ïåð³îä³â â³äáó-
âàëèñü íå âíàñë³äîê çì³í êîíöåíòðàö³¿ CO2 ó àòìîñôåð³.
Êëþ÷îâ³ ñëîâà: êë³ìàò, ïîòåïë³ííÿ, ä³îêñèä âóãëåöþ, òåìïåðàòóðà.
� David G. Gee, 2010
Fig.1.Surface temperature anomalies – Global and Northern
and Southern Hemispheres (from Hadley Center, UK, 2009).
CO2 in parts per million, from ice-core data and, more re-
cently, from the Mauna Loa laboratory.
transition into our present Holocene interglacial
was rapid. Temperature reached a maximum dur-
ing the so-called Holocene Optimum (c.
6000–8000 years ago) when it was about two de-
grees higher than now. The warmth of the Holo-
cene Optimum melted the ice in the Arctic and
promoted the development of Earth’s early civili-
zations in Egypt, Mesopotamia and China and
the greening of the Sahara. Thereafter, tempera-
ture decreased into the Little Ice Age and then,
fortunately for us, has warmed a little. The drop
in temperature from the Holocene Optimum to
the Little Ice Age was 2–3 �C. This downward
trend was not a steady decline; it was character-
ized by warmer periods (e.g. in Roman and Medi-
eval times) separated by intervals of cooling (e.g.
in the Dark Ages). According to IPCC, during all
these changes from the glacial maximum to the
beginning of the last century, the Earth’s atmo-
sphere retained a level of CO2 of about 280 ppm.
If we look back even further, prior to the
last glacial maximum, during the 2.5 million
years of Quaternary glaciations and interglacials,
CO2 apparently only varied between about 180
and 400 ppm (based on ice-core measurements),
following temperature up and down with a delay
of a few hundred years. Seen in the even longer
perspective of Earth’s history, our Quaternary
experience has been one of the coldest in the last
500 million years and with 10 to 20 times less
CO2 than in the past. In this geological context,
IPCC’s confidence in the dominance of
anthropogenic warming and its predicted nega-
tive impact on society is indisputably politics,
not science.
During the last 10 years, despite continued ris-
ing CO2, temperature on Earth has stopped in-
creasing and recently has been going markedly
downwards, as it did in the 1940’s. This is particu-
larly surprising because the CO2 influence on tem-
perature is considered to be logarithmic. One obvi-
ous possibility is that temperature will continue to
drop for the next twenty to thirty years, as it did
between 1945 and 1975. Maybe the impact of
CO2 has been overestimated and the role of clouds,
albeido and other phenomena in controlling temper-
ature, has been underestimated. Apparently, the
CO2 — driven climate models are having difficulty
simulating the on-going change.
The record both prior to and since the 1970’s
provides no basis for alarmism or drastic political ac-
tion. We need to use our fossil fuels more efficiently,
but we do not need to fear them, demonise them or
abandon them. Let Climate take Time-Out — only
time can tell how climate will change.
P.S. For how many years must the Planet cool
before politicians understand that the Globe is no
longer warming?
Received January 21, 2010
56 Ýíåðãîòåõíîëîãèè è ðåñóðñîñáåðåæåíèå. 2010. ¹ 2
Êëèìàò íóæäàåòñÿ â ïåðåäûøêå
Ãèè Ä.Ä.
Óïïñàëüñêèé óíèâåðñèòåò, Øâåöèÿ
Ïðîøëî íåäîñòàòî÷íî âðåìåíè äëÿ äåìîíñòðàöèè òîãî, ÷òî ïðè÷èíîé ïîâûøåíèÿ
òåìïåðàòóðû Çåìëè â ïåðèîä ñ 1970 ïî 2000 ãîä ÿâëÿåòñÿ ïîâûøåíèå ñîäåðæàíèÿ CO2
âñëåäñòâèå ñæèãàíèÿ èñêîïàåìûõ òîïëèâ. Áîëüøèíñòâî èçìåíåíèé â òåìïåðàòóðå
ïîâåðõíîñòè Çåìëè â òå÷åíèå ïîñëåäíåãî ìèëëèîíà ëåò âî âðåìÿ ëåäíèêîâûõ è
ìåæëåäíèêîâûõ ïåðèîäîâ ïðîèñõîäèëî íå âñëåäñòâèå èçìåíåíèé êîíöåíòðàöèè CO2 â
àòìîñôåðå.
Key words: êëèìàò, ïîòåïëåíèå, äèîêñèä óãëåðîäà, òåìïåðàòóðà.
Ïîñòóïèëà â ðåäàêöèþ 21.01.10
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