Estimation of a living standards of elderly population in the conditions of transition to the sustainable development in Azerbaijan Republic
The estimation of standard of living of elderly population and transition to sustainable development in Azerbaijan Republic is considered in this paper. For the estimation of a standard of living of older persons and comparison with other groups of population it is possible to use the indicator whi...
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Інститут економіки промисловості НАН України
2017
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irk-123456789-1309392018-03-09T03:02:40Z Estimation of a living standards of elderly population in the conditions of transition to the sustainable development in Azerbaijan Republic Abbasova, Sh. Orujova, M. Orujova, T. Management of Labour and Safety The estimation of standard of living of elderly population and transition to sustainable development in Azerbaijan Republic is considered in this paper. For the estimation of a standard of living of older persons and comparison with other groups of population it is possible to use the indicator which characterizes purchasing capacity of incomes and shows the quantity of sets of a living wage that the person could buy by the income per capita. Using calculated values of this indicators and statistical data of economic growth , the econometric model characterising dependence between the indicator of a standard of living of older persons and economic growth in the country is constructed. Statistical characteristics of the econometric model show, that the model is quite adequate and can be used for the forecast of growth of a standard of living of older part of the population of the country. У статті проводиться аналіз рівня життя літніх людей в період переходу до сталого розвитку в Азербайджані. Для оцінки рівня життя літніх і порівняння його з іншими верствами населення використовується показник, що характеризує купівельну спроможність доходів. Використовуючи значення цього показника і дані щодо економічного зростання, побудована економетрична модель. Отримані статистичні характеристики показують, що модель адекватна і може бути використана для прогнозу зростання рівня життя літніх під впливом стійкого економічного зростання. В данной статье проводится анализ уровня жизни пожилых людей в период перехода к устойчивому развитию в Азербайджане. Для оценки уровня жизни пожилых и сравнения его с другими слоями населения используется показатель, характеризующий покупательную способность доходов. Используя значения этого показателя и данные по экономическому росту, построена эконометрическая модель. Полученные статистические характеристики показывают, что модель адекватна и может быть использована для прогноза роста уровня жизни пожилых под влиянием устойчивого экономического роста. 2017 Article Estimation of a living standards of elderly population in the conditions of transition to the sustainable development in Azerbaijan Republic / Sh. Abbasova, M. Orujova, T. Orujova // Економічний вісник Донбасу. — 2017. — № 4 (50). — С. 178-181. — Бібліогр.: 4 назв. — англ. 1817-3772 http://dspace.nbuv.gov.ua/handle/123456789/130939 330.359:303.725.33:330.35(479.24) en Економічний вісник Донбасу Інститут економіки промисловості НАН України |
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Management of Labour and Safety Management of Labour and Safety |
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Management of Labour and Safety Management of Labour and Safety Abbasova, Sh. Orujova, M. Orujova, T. Estimation of a living standards of elderly population in the conditions of transition to the sustainable development in Azerbaijan Republic Економічний вісник Донбасу |
| description |
The estimation of standard of living of elderly population and transition to sustainable development in Azerbaijan Republic is considered in this paper. For the estimation of a standard of living of older persons and comparison with other groups of population it is possible to use the indicator which characterizes purchasing capacity of incomes and shows the quantity of sets of a living wage that the person could buy by the income per capita. Using calculated values of this indicators and statistical data of economic growth , the econometric model characterising dependence between the indicator of a standard of living of older persons and economic growth in the country is constructed. Statistical characteristics of the econometric model show, that the model is quite adequate and can be used for the forecast of growth of a standard of living of older part of the population of the country. |
| format |
Article |
| author |
Abbasova, Sh. Orujova, M. Orujova, T. |
| author_facet |
Abbasova, Sh. Orujova, M. Orujova, T. |
| author_sort |
Abbasova, Sh. |
| title |
Estimation of a living standards of elderly population in the conditions of transition to the sustainable development in Azerbaijan Republic |
| title_short |
Estimation of a living standards of elderly population in the conditions of transition to the sustainable development in Azerbaijan Republic |
| title_full |
Estimation of a living standards of elderly population in the conditions of transition to the sustainable development in Azerbaijan Republic |
| title_fullStr |
Estimation of a living standards of elderly population in the conditions of transition to the sustainable development in Azerbaijan Republic |
| title_full_unstemmed |
Estimation of a living standards of elderly population in the conditions of transition to the sustainable development in Azerbaijan Republic |
| title_sort |
estimation of a living standards of elderly population in the conditions of transition to the sustainable development in azerbaijan republic |
| publisher |
Інститут економіки промисловості НАН України |
| publishDate |
2017 |
| topic_facet |
Management of Labour and Safety |
| url |
http://dspace.nbuv.gov.ua/handle/123456789/130939 |
| citation_txt |
Estimation of a living standards of elderly population in the conditions of transition to the sustainable development in Azerbaijan Republic / Sh. Abbasova, M. Orujova, T. Orujova // Економічний вісник Донбасу. — 2017. — № 4 (50). — С. 178-181. — Бібліогр.: 4 назв. — англ. |
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Економічний вісник Донбасу |
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Sh. Abbasova, M. Orujova, T. Orujova
178
Економічний вісник Донбасу № 4(50), 2017
UDC 330.359:303.725.33:330.35(479.24)
Sh. Abbasova,
Assoc. Prof.,
Baku State University,
M. Orujova,
Ph.D. (Еconomics),
Azerbaijan State University of Economics,
T. Orujova,
Ph.D. (Еconomics),
Baku State University
ESTIMATION OF A LIVING STANDARDS OF ELDERLY POPULATION
IN THE CONDITIONS OF TRANSITION TO THE SUSTAINABLE
DEVELOPMENT IN AZERBAIJAN REPUBLIC
Introduction. Our country as the all world com-
munity has passed to new type of the development, al-
lowing to satisfy requirements of present generation
without a damage of interests of the future generation.
The term “sustainable development” connects problems
of the environment protection, stabilization of economy
and improvement of quality of a life of all social classes,
particularly older persons.
How the process of ageing of the population influ-
ence on sustainable development? The analysis of these
problems is considered in this paper. Here emerge the
question: How this growth is influenced the living
standard of a society, and especially the most unpro-
tected part of community – older persons? On the other
hand, we observe a process of ageing of the population
in our country as well as all over the world. Will the pro-
cess of ageing of the population slow down economic
growth? The analysis of these problems is considered in
this paper.
Methods and data. For researching on the basic
demographic tendencies, indicators of ageing, quality of
the life elderly we use the methods of the descriptive
statistics, econometrics and program Eviews. Material:
Data set of monitoring the households is spending annu-
ally by the World Bank and the State Statistical Com-
mittee of Azerbaijan Republic.
Demographic ageing of the population – increasing
a share of elderly and old people in population struc-
ture – twenty years ago considered as the phenomenon
observing only in the developed countries, today is ob-
served all over the world. This process has various as-
pects, which are necessary for considering by working
out of social programs. Population ageing already today
are shown in all areas of community life. Experts pre-
dict, that this process will influence on the economic
growth, savings, investments and consumption, labor
markets, pensions, the taxation etc.
So, in the near future population ageing can lead to
annual falling of rates of economic growth, deficiency
of a labour, and payment of pensions becomes serious
loading for the government.
In Azerbaijan acceleration of demographic ageing
of the population has coincided by time with the period
of the economic reforms. In this situation elderly have
appeared among those categories of citizens which have
suffered in the social plan most of all. It was most diffi-
cult to older persons to adapt to changing social-eco-
nomic conditions. World financial crisis more has wors-
ened this process. Though Azerbaijan is weakly inte-
grated into world economic, especially in sphere of fi-
nance, but our country develops the economy in the con-
ditions of globalization and fluctuation of currencies.
The budget of the country which is filled up in basic by
oil incomes , also has suffered from changing oil prices.
First of all government programs have suffered in social
sphere. Some problems connected with employment
have emergences, especially among older persons. The
world economic crisis has led to the further differentia-
tion of a society, including among older persons. In this
connection there is a question: How to estimate quality
of a life of the elderly population in our Republic during
ageing of the population which are taking place all over
the world.
The analysis of dynamics of the basic demographic
indicators in our country shows that with increasing of
life expectancy growth of a share of the elderly popula-
tion . By the opinion of the most demographers if the
number of the elderly population makes more than 7%
from the total number it is shows the population So, if
in 1990 year the share of persons aged 60 and over
emerged 8.% , in 2000 – 8.5% and in 2015- 8.8% in total
number of the population (women – 9.9%, men – 7.7%).
Characteristic of the of ageing in Azerbaijan con-
sists from two factor : decrease in birth rate and life ex-
pectancy growth. Decrease in level of birth rate has led
to reduction of relative density of children in a popula-
tion and therefore growth of relative density of the el-
derly population. At the same time structural changes in
the given group of the population are observed. In 1989
year among population of working age the number of
people in group age 15-29 year was 47,6%, in group age
30-49 year was 32,8% and in older group 50-64 year –
19,6%. But in 2015 these indicators are 1.6%, 42.4%,
Sh. Abbasova, M. Orujova, T. Orujova
179
Економічний вісник Донбасу № 4(50), 2017
16.0%. It is necessary to notice also, that the growth of
elderly population in urban places higher than the
growth of rural population. Especially fast growth is ob-
served in age group from 70 and is more senior, and also
dominance of number of women over number of men.
According to forecasts, by 2050 year share of population
elder 50 will increase up to 20%. The coefficient of de-
mographic support elderly (by United Nations tech-
nique – ratio of the number of persons at the age of 15-
65 years to one elderly), characterising load elderly on
the population of working age during last years was on
low level: did not exceed 6 and tended to decrease up to
1998. The coefficient of demographic load is calculated
as the ratio of the general number of dependants (the
person at age more youngly 15 and persons at age 65
and over ) to the population at able-bodied age (15-64
years). Demographic load can have various value: posi-
tive – when loading children exceeds loading elderly
and negative – in case of prevalence of elderly load.
At the beginning of 2015 year the indicator of the
demographic load was equal 470 on 1000 persons at
working age, including 332 for children , 137 for elderly
persons. It means that two working contain one non-
working pensioner.
Such relation between the population of working
and elderly age has adverse consequences for pension
system. Now the most of state pension systems existing
in the world are in inconvenient position. This position
forces the governments of many countries to increase
the pension age. But if not to increase a pensionable age
the further process of ageing of the population will lead
to growth of demographic load and decrease of eco-
nomic growth.
Since 1991 in Azerbaijan as well as in many post-
soviet republics the new pension age has been estab-
lished: 57 years for women and 62 years for men. Ac-
cording the new law about labor pensions in 2017 pen-
sion age is increased for men and women – till 65 years.
For the research of the structure of the population
by age often is used the index of ageing – the relation of
number or a share of older persons to number or shares
of children. In 2015 ageing index of ageing was equal
33, that twice larger than in the middle of the last cen-
tury. It is necessary to notice, that the index of ageing
for urban population which equal 33, that is exceed in-
dex for the rural population equal 28.
Resent statistic of the State Fund of Social Pro-
tection indicate that the number of pensioners in Azer-
baijan accounts about 1,3 mln. persons, of them
536 659 are men and other are women. 64% of pension-
ers receive the old-age pension, 25% receive disability
pension, 11% – in connection with loss of the head of
the family. In 1999 year the proportion of pensioners in
the overall population was 14.8%, in 2006 their part has
reached 16.5%, and in 2009 has again decreased to 14%.
The exit on pension for those who has high labor
potential and could continue productive professional
work, is the powerful stress factor. Because majority of
firms employ employees, is not older 40 years, access to
the employment for older persons is limited. Difficulties
at labor market are especially sharp for elderly women
who have in comparison with men the worst financial
position. The elderly persons are less competitive at la-
bor market, because of lack of health and loss of their
professional skills , low adaptability to current situation
and e. t. c. Elderly persons are needed only at not pres-
tigious workplaces - with low salary or bad working
conditions. As a result is reduction of the employment
among the elderly population during the last 30 years.
The analysis of structure of employment among el-
derly persons shows, that employment of people is older
60 years sharply decreases, more, than on 20%. If
among age group of 60-64 men almost half is employed,
among men is older 65 years only 25% have job. Ana-
lyzing employment in different economic sectors, the
greatest percent of employment of the elderly is ob-
served in sphere of trade and in agriculture. Among 60-
64 years women age group 43% are employed and is
older this age group only 29.7%. women had a job.
It is necessary to note that mainly high employment
level is kept by pensioners with higher education and
with low qualification. The marital status of older per-
sons and educational level also influence quality of their
life. Elderly with high education have higher level of a
financial position. In accordance with our mentality, the
most of older persons live together with the working re-
latives, that considerably facilitates their life. Placing of
older persons in geriatric home also is alien to our men-
tality, that explains existence only one in all over the
country similar house for elderly.
Though health services for pensioners is free, but
quality of such service is very low. Single elderly with
low incomes cannot get the qualified medical aid and
buy expensive medicines. Research of statistical data
shows, that health of older persons with low incomes is
worse, than pensioners with high incomes. And accord-
ingly among them above a death rate.
Investigation about expenses of the elderly shows,
that in process of ageing the consumption structure
varies. Expenses at a food, the goods of hygienic and
medical appointment, payment of certain types of ser-
vice especially medical is increased, but expenses at to-
bacco products, alcoholic drinks, transport are consider-
ably cut down.
The most of older persons in Azerbaijan consider,
that the level of their life in 90th years has considerably
decreased, they estimate their financial position as un-
satisfactory, unstable and unreliable. The standard of
living of the elderly is defined by their possibility to sa-
tisfy the necessities of life at the expense of goods and
services purchase.
In the conditions of the market the purchase of
goods and services depends on an economic position of
the older person which is defined by level of his income
and the prices.
The main parameter of the standard of living of the
older persons is the size of pension correlated with a
prices of consumer goods and services.
Sh. Abbasova, M. Orujova, T. Orujova
180
Економічний вісник Донбасу № 4(50), 2017
For the estimation of a standard of living of older
persons and comparison with other groups of population
it is possible to use the indicator which characterizes
purchasing capacity of incomes and shows the quantity
of sets of a living wage (lw) that the person could buy
by the income per capita.
This indicator reflects changes of incomes of the
population along with change of the prices for the basic
goods and services, is the characteristic of a standard of
living. As the this indicator we offer to take the rate
(RLW) of the monthly average salary (AW – average
wage) to the living wage (LW – living wage),which is
denoted by RLW:
RLW= AW/ LW.
Below in table 1 results of calculations of this indi-
cator are presented.
Table 1 shows, that the indicator of a standard of
living of older persons twice less than his average value
in the country and only, since 2008 exceeds unit. It
means, that incomes of older persons still were below a
living wage.
Table 1
Year
Average wage,
man.
Average pension,
man.
Average living
wage, man.
Liwing wage for
older person,
man.
Standart
of living
Standart
of living
for elderly
2005 123.6 24.0 55 42 2.25 0.57
2006 141.3 28.0 58 45 2.44 0.62
2007 214.0 41.1 64 50 3.77 0.82
2008 274.4 62.9 70 57 3.92 1.1
2009 298 95.82 84 65 3.55 1.47
2010 331.5 100.4 87 68 3.8 1.48
2011 364.2 112.9 95 72 3.81 1.57
2012 398.4 145.1 108 84 3.69 1.73
2013 425.1 152 116 95 3.66 1.6
2014 444.5 170.5 125 103 3.57 1.66
2015 466.9 173.4 131 108 3.56 1.61
Using calculated values RLW and statistical data
of economic growth for the period of 2005-2015, the
econometric model characterising dependence between
the indicator of a standard of living of older persons and
economic growth in the country is constructed. Data
about economic growth are described below in the
table 2.
Table 2
The rate of economic growth in Azerbaijan
Year 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Economic growth, % 26,4 34,5 25 10,8 9,4 4,9 0,1 2,2 5,8 2,8 1,1
The economic growth (GGDP) is calculated as ra-
tio of gross domestic product (GDP) of current period
and last period. From the table 2 іt is shown, that since
2007, sharp decrease in rates of economic growth is ob-
served. It is explained both the world economic crisis,
and reduction of prices on oil. Decrease in rates of eco-
nomic growth should affect a population standard of
living including older persons. For estimating of this in-
fluence the regression function is constructed:
RLW= f(GGDP),
where RLW – standard of living,
GGDP – level of economic growth.
By using Eviews program, we received the follow-
ing result represented by table 3.
Table 3
Dependent Variable: RLW
Method: Least Squares
Date: 09/08/17 Time: 00:12
Sample: 2005 2015
Included observations: 11
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.
GGDP 0.035070 0.003566 9.834749 0.0000
C 1.685778 0.056778 29.69091 0.0000
R-squared 0.914871 Mean dependent var 1.293636
Adjusted R-squared 0.905413 S.D. dependent var 0.435896
S.E. of regression 0.134060 Akaike info criterion -1.018090
Sum squared resid 0.161749 Schwarz criterion -0.945746
Log likelihood 7.599497 F-statistic 96.72229
Durbin-Watson stat 2.327541 Prob(F-statistic) 0.000004
RLW = 0.03506961954*GGDP + 1.685778473.
Sh. Abbasova, M. Orujova, T. Orujova
181
Економічний вісник Донбасу № 4(50), 2017
Statistical characteristics of the econometric model
show, that the model is quite adequate and can be used
for the forecast of growth of a standard of living of older
part of the population of the country.
And only thanks to reforms in pension system of
the Azerbaijan Republic the situation has changed for
the better. And still despite all these measures, the aver-
age size of pension hardly exceeds living level and is
less than 50% from the average salary, that considerably
lags behind world indicators. It means that retirement is
dangerously for older persons because their incomes are
considerably reduced. All of it demands great attention
from the government to interests of the elderly and the
further perfection of pension system.
References/
1. The impact of population aging on the labor
market: the case of Sri Lanka, M.Vodopivic,N.Arunatil-
ake, Bonn, 2008. 2. Alperovich V.D. Starost: sosialno-
filosovskiy analiz, Rostov, 1998, 104 s. 3. World De-
velopment Indicators database, 2015. 4. Human devel-
opment report 2016. 5. URL: www.azstat.org.
Аббасова Ш. А., Оруджева M. Ш., Оруджева
Т. В., Оцінка рівня життя літніх людей в умовах
переходу до сталого розвитку в Азербайджансь-
кій Республіці
У статті проводиться аналіз рівня життя літніх
людей в період переходу до сталого розвитку в
Азербайджані. Для оцінки рівня життя літніх і по-
рівняння його з іншими верствами населення вико-
ристовується показник, що характеризує купівельну
спроможність доходів. Використовуючи значення
цього показника і дані щодо економічного зрос-
тання, побудована економетрична модель. Отримані
статистичні характеристики показують, що модель
адекватна і може бути використана для прогнозу
зростання рівня життя літніх під впливом стійкого
економічного зростання.
Ключові слова: літнє населення, сталий розви-
ток, економічне зростання, економетрична модель.
Аббасова Ш. А., Оруджева M. Ш., Оруджева
Т. В. Оценка уровня жизни пожилых в условиях
перехода к устойчивому развитию в Азербай-
джанской Республике
В данной статье проводится анализ уровня
жизни пожилых людей в период перехода к устой-
чивому развитию в Азербайджане. Для оценки
уровня жизни пожилых и сравнения его с другими
слоями населения используется показатель, харак-
теризующий покупательную способность доходов.
Используя значения этого показателя и данные по
экономическому росту, построена эконометри-
ческая модель. Полученные статистические харак-
теристики показывают, что модель адекватна и мо-
жет быть использована для прогноза роста уровня
жизни пожилых под влиянием устойчивого эконо-
мического роста.
Ключевые слова: пожилое население, устойчи-
вое развитие, экономический рост, эконометриче-
ская модель.
Abbasova Sh., Orujova M., Orujova T. Estima-
tion of a living standards of elderly population in the
conditions of transition to the sustainable develop-
ment in Azerbaijan Republic
The estimation of standard of living of elderly pop-
ulation and transition to sustainable development in
Azerbaijan Republic is considered in this paper. For the
estimation of a standard of living of older persons and
comparison with other groups of population it is possi-
ble to use the indicator which characterizes purchasing
capacity of incomes and shows the quantity of sets of a
living wage that the person could buy by the income per
capita. Using calculated values of this indicators and sta-
tistical data of economic growth , the econometric
model characterising dependence between the indicator
of a standard of living of older persons and economic
growth in the country is constructed. Statistical charac-
teristics of the econometric model show, that the model
is quite adequate and can be used for the forecast of
growth of a standard of living of older part of the popu-
lation of the country.
Keywords: elderly population, sustainable devel-
opment, economic growth, econometric model.
Received by the editors: 18.09.2017
and final form 22.12.2017
|