The tendencies of climate change and water regime of the middle- lower part in the basin of Southern Bug River (in the region of location of the South-Ukrainian Nuclear Power Plant)
Feature of climate change and runoff for the middle-lower part of the basin of the Southern Bug River (in location of the South-Ukrainian Nuclear Power Plant) of the second half of the XX century and at the beginning of the XXI century are analyzed.
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Інститут геофізики ім. С.I. Субботіна НАН України
2018
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| Цитувати: | The tendencies of climate change and water regime of the middle- lower part in the basin of Southern Bug River (in the region of location of the South-Ukrainian Nuclear Power Plant) / Yu.L. Zabulonov, S.G. Boychenko, O.O. Zholudenko, M.A. Buhera // Геофизический журнал. — 2018. — Т. 40, № 5. — С. 286-300. — Бібліогр.: 23 назв. — англ. |
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irk-123456789-1456062019-01-25T01:23:28Z The tendencies of climate change and water regime of the middle- lower part in the basin of Southern Bug River (in the region of location of the South-Ukrainian Nuclear Power Plant) Zabulonov, Yu.L. Boychenko, S.G. Zholudenko, O.O. Buhera, M.A. Feature of climate change and runoff for the middle-lower part of the basin of the Southern Bug River (in location of the South-Ukrainian Nuclear Power Plant) of the second half of the XX century and at the beginning of the XXI century are analyzed. Проанализированы особенности изменения климата и водности для средне-нижней части бассейна р. Южный Буг (в регионе расположения Южно-Украинской атомной электростанции (ЮУАЭС)) во второй половине XX в. - в начале XXI в. Проаналізовано особливості зміни клімату та водності для середньо-нижньої частини басейну р. Південний Буг (у регіоні розташування Южно-Української атомної електростанції (ЮУ АЕС)) в другій половини XX ст. — на початку XXI ст. 2018 Article The tendencies of climate change and water regime of the middle- lower part in the basin of Southern Bug River (in the region of location of the South-Ukrainian Nuclear Power Plant) / Yu.L. Zabulonov, S.G. Boychenko, O.O. Zholudenko, M.A. Buhera // Геофизический журнал. — 2018. — Т. 40, № 5. — С. 286-300. — Бібліогр.: 23 назв. — англ. 0203-3100 DOI: https://doi.org/10.24028/gzh.0203-3100.v40i5.2018.147498 http://dspace.nbuv.gov.ua/handle/123456789/145606 502+556+591+621.22(477.73:282.247.318) en Геофизический журнал Інститут геофізики ім. С.I. Субботіна НАН України |
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Digital Library of Periodicals of National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine |
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DSpace DC |
| language |
English |
| description |
Feature of climate change and runoff for the middle-lower part of the basin of the Southern Bug River (in location of the South-Ukrainian Nuclear Power Plant) of the second half of the XX century and at the beginning of the XXI century are analyzed. |
| format |
Article |
| author |
Zabulonov, Yu.L. Boychenko, S.G. Zholudenko, O.O. Buhera, M.A. |
| spellingShingle |
Zabulonov, Yu.L. Boychenko, S.G. Zholudenko, O.O. Buhera, M.A. The tendencies of climate change and water regime of the middle- lower part in the basin of Southern Bug River (in the region of location of the South-Ukrainian Nuclear Power Plant) Геофизический журнал |
| author_facet |
Zabulonov, Yu.L. Boychenko, S.G. Zholudenko, O.O. Buhera, M.A. |
| author_sort |
Zabulonov, Yu.L. |
| title |
The tendencies of climate change and water regime of the middle- lower part in the basin of Southern Bug River (in the region of location of the South-Ukrainian Nuclear Power Plant) |
| title_short |
The tendencies of climate change and water regime of the middle- lower part in the basin of Southern Bug River (in the region of location of the South-Ukrainian Nuclear Power Plant) |
| title_full |
The tendencies of climate change and water regime of the middle- lower part in the basin of Southern Bug River (in the region of location of the South-Ukrainian Nuclear Power Plant) |
| title_fullStr |
The tendencies of climate change and water regime of the middle- lower part in the basin of Southern Bug River (in the region of location of the South-Ukrainian Nuclear Power Plant) |
| title_full_unstemmed |
The tendencies of climate change and water regime of the middle- lower part in the basin of Southern Bug River (in the region of location of the South-Ukrainian Nuclear Power Plant) |
| title_sort |
tendencies of climate change and water regime of the middle- lower part in the basin of southern bug river (in the region of location of the south-ukrainian nuclear power plant) |
| publisher |
Інститут геофізики ім. С.I. Субботіна НАН України |
| publishDate |
2018 |
| url |
http://dspace.nbuv.gov.ua/handle/123456789/145606 |
| citation_txt |
The tendencies of climate change and water regime of the middle- lower part in the basin of Southern Bug River (in the region of location of the South-Ukrainian Nuclear Power Plant) / Yu.L. Zabulonov, S.G. Boychenko, O.O. Zholudenko, M.A. Buhera // Геофизический журнал. — 2018. — Т. 40, № 5. — С. 286-300. — Бібліогр.: 23 назв. — англ. |
| series |
Геофизический журнал |
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YU. L. ZABULONOV, S. G. BOYCHENKO, O. O. ZHOLUDENKO, M. A. BUHERA
286 Ãåîôèçè÷åñêèé æóðíàë ¹ 5, Ò. 40, 2018
ÓÄÊ 502+556+591+621.22(477.73:282.247.318)
In memory of Georgii Lysychenko
The tendencies of climate change and water regime
of the middle- lower part in the basin of Southern Bug
River (in the region of location of the South-Ukrainian
Nuclear Power Plant)
Yu. L. Zabulonov1, S. G. Boychenko2, O. O. Zholudenko1, M. A. Buhera1, 2018
1State Institution �Institute of Environmental Geochemistry of National Academy
of Sciences of Ukraine�, Kiev, Ukraine
2S. I. Subbotin Institute of Geophysics of the National Academy of Sciences
of Ukraine, Kiev, Ukraine
Received 3 September 2018
Ïðîàíàë³çîâàíî îñîáëèâîñò³ çì³íè êë³ìàòó òà âîäíîñò³ äëÿ ñåðåäíüî-íèæíüî¿
÷àñòèíè áàñåéíó ð.ϳâäåííèé Áóã (ó ðåã³îí³ ðîçòàøóâàííÿ Þæíî-Óêðà¿íñüêî¿ àòîì-
íî¿ åëåêòðîñòàíö³¿ (ÞÓ ÀÅÑ)) â äðóã³é ïîëîâèíè XX ñò. � íà ïî÷àòêó XXI ñò. Óíà-
ñë³äîê çì³íè êë³ìàòó â³äáóëîñÿ ï³äâèùåííÿ ñåðåäíüîð³÷íî¿ òåìïåðàòóðè ïîâ³òðÿ (íà
0,16�0,28 °Ñ íà 10 ðîê³â) òà íåçíà÷íå ï³äâèùåííÿ ð³÷íî¿ ê³ëüêîñò³ àòìîñôåðíèõ îïà-
ä³â (íà 1�2 %) ó öüîìó ðåã³îí³ çà ïåð³îä 1945�2017 ðð. Ïðîòå ñïîñòåð³ãàþòüñÿ
á³ëüø ³íòåíñèâíå ïîòåïë³ííÿ òà íåãàòèâíà òåíäåíö³ÿ äî çíèæåííÿ ð³÷íî¿ ê³ëüêîñò³
îïàä³â (íà 3�10 %, âë³òêó íà 20�30 %) çà îñòàíí³ äåê³ëüêà äåñÿòèë³òü íà ìåòåîñòàí-
ö³ÿõ Ïåðâîìàéñüê òà Âîçíåñåíñüê. Òàê³ ðåã³îíàëüí³ çì³íè êë³ìàòó ìîæóòü, ïåâíîþ
ì³ðîþ, ïðèçâåñòè äî çìåíøåííÿ âîäíîñò³ ó âîäîéìàõ ÷åðåç àíîìàëüíå ï³äâèùåííÿ
òåìïåðàòóðè òà çìåíøåííÿ ê³ëüêîñò³ àòìîñôåðíèõ îïàä³â âë³òêó (ëèïåíü�ñåðïåíü)
òà çá³ëüøåííÿ âèïàðîâóâàííÿ â áàñåéí³ ð. ϳâäåííèé Áóã. Íåçíà÷íå ð³÷íå çá³ëüøåí-
íÿ ê³ëüêîñò³ îïàä³â (³ â õîëîäíèé ïåð³îä ðîêó) ó ö³é ÷àñòèí³ áàñåéíó íå êîìïåíñóº
òàêó íåãàòèâíó òåíäåíö³þ. Äîñèòü ñêëàäíà òà íåáåçïå÷íà ã³äðîëîã³÷íà ñèòóàö³ÿ â
áàñåéí³ ð. ϳâäåííèé Áóã ñêëàëàñÿ íà ïåð³îä 2015�2017 ðð. óíàñë³äîê íèçüêîãî
ð³âíÿ âîäè ó âîäîñõîâèùàõ çà âåñü ïåð³îä åêñïëóàòàö³¿, ùî ïîâ�ÿçàíî ³ç ñêëàäíèìè
ïîãîäíèìè óìîâàìè (àðèäèçàö³ºþ êë³ìàòè÷íèõ óìîâ) òà çá³ëüøåííÿì ñïîæèâàííÿ
âîäè (âîäí³ñòü ð. ϳâäåííèé Áóã ó ñåðïí³�âåðåñí³ áóëà íà 12�15 % ìåíøà â³ä ì³-
ñÿ÷íî¿ íîðìè). Ó äåëüò³ ð. ϳâäåííèé Áóã òàêîæ íåñïðèÿòëèâà ñèòóàö³ÿ, òàê, ó Áóçü-
êîìó ëèìàí³ â³äáóâàþòüñÿ: ï³äâèùåííÿ ñîëîíîñò³ âîäè, çìåíøåííÿ ãëèáèí, ï³äâè-
ùåííÿ òåìïåðàòóðè âîäè, çìåíøåííÿ îáñÿã³â ïð³ñíî¿ âîäè ç ð³÷êè òà ïîñèëåíèé
ïðèïëèâ ñîëîíèõ âîä ç ×îðíîãî ìîðÿ. Ðåã³îíàëüí³ çì³íè êë³ìàòó òà âîäíîñò³ ìîæóòü
ïðèçâåñòè äî ïåâíèõ óñêëàäíåíü ó ïîäàëüø³é åôåêòèâí³é åêñïëóàòàö³¿ ÞÓ ÀÅÑ, à
ï³äíÿòòÿ ð³âíÿ âîäîñõîâèù ìîæå ñóïðîâîäæóâàòèñÿ íåãàòèâíèì âïëèâîì íà íàâ-
êîëèøíº ñåðåäîâèùå. Òîìó âàæëèâî çíàéòè ðîçóìíèé êîìïðîì³ñ ì³æ åêîíîì³÷íîþ
äîö³ëüí³ñòþ òà çáåðåæåííÿì íàâêîëèøíüîãî ñåðåäîâèùà.
Êëþ÷îâ³ ñëîâà: çì³íà êë³ìàòó, ïðèçåìíà òåìïåðàòóðà ïîâ³òðÿ, àòìîñôåðí³ îïà-
äè, âîäí³ñòü, âîäí³ ðåñóðñè, ð. ϳâäåííèé Áóã.
Introduction. The generation of energy
at the South-Ukrainian Nuclear Power Plant
(SUNPP) requires significant amounts of wa-
ter for cooling systems taken from the South
Bug. It is particularly noticeable in recent
decades, that the operation of the SUNPP
has a shortage of water resources, which
somewhat limits its effective operation. Re-
doi: 10.24028/gzh.0203-3100.v40i5.2018.147498
THE TENDENCIES OF CLIMATE CHANGE ...
Ãåîôèçè÷åñêèé æóðíàë ¹ 5, Ò. 40, 2018 287
ducing water content in the basin of the
Southern Bug River is due both to climate
change in the region and through intensi-
ve water management activities [Aliyev et
al., 2006; Khilchevsky, 2009; Afanasyev et
al., 2012, 2014; Lysychenko, 2017].
The Southern Bug River is the most re-
gulated among the largest rivers in Ukraine
and the use of the river has exceeded the
permissible standards. The total volume of
artificial reservoirs in its basin is about 1.5
km3, which is already 1.5 times more than
the volume of the Bug River flow during its
small flow. In accordance with the Water
Code [Aliyev et al., 2006], in such circum-
stances the volume of the reservoir must
be reduced to improve river flow.
The energy production at the South-Uk-
rainian NPP requires significant amounts
of water for cooling systems from the Sou-
thern Bug River. Due to climatic changes
in this region (the increase of the average
annual air temperature and the decrease of
the amount of precipitation, especially in
the upper and middle part of the river) and
intensive use of water resources and unsuc-
cessful management, the exploitations of the
SUNPP (that is connected with cooling) be-
came more complicated.
In order to ensure the operations of Tash-
lytska Storage Plant (Tashlytska SP) and the
SUNPP, it is planned to increase the level
of the Oleksandrivske Reservoir from +16.9
to +20 m. With this aim, a catchment from
the river is expected and an additional
51.65 ⋅ 106 m3 of surface water in the reser-
voir will be accumulated, which will be ac-
companied by an increase in water losses
from Oleksandrivske reservoir at 1.5 ⋅ 106 m3
per year [Environmental ..., 2016].
Activity of the SUNPP in the modern li-
mits already has a negative impact on the
environment, but the concerns of ecologists
are exacerbated by an increase in the le-
vel of reservoirs to mark +20 m, which will
increase the load on natural ecosystems and
the society, and will violate the number of
international and national legal acts [Envi-
ronmental ..., 2016].
The territory of the Bug Guard is the cent-
ral element of the Bug-steppe biosphere
center and the site of the largest concent-
ration of biotic diversity, natural and histo-
rical landscapes, and archaeological sites
[Afanasyev et al., 2012, 2014].
Therefore, it is important to find a rea-
sonable compromise between economic fea-
sibility and preservation of the environment.
Analysis of the last researches and pub-
lication. About impacts on the environ-
ment from the South-Ukrainian Nuclear
Power Plant. The SUNPP is located in the
southern part of the Dnipro Upland, on the
left bank of the middle reaches of the South-
ern Bug River. The purpose of the SUNPP
is the generation of electricity for the sup-
ply of consumers in the southern regions
of Ukraine (with a population more than 5
million people) in Mykolaiv, Odesa, Kherson
regions. The SUNPP provides more than
10 % of the total electricity production in
Ukraine.
Due the Oleksandrivske and Tashlytske
Reservoirs filling there was: seizure of lands
of various purposes (natural and economic
lands), the transformation of landscapes, the
formation of specific microclimate, chang-
es in surface runoff conditions; violation of
the conditions for the existence of natural
biodiversity and the forced migration of wild
fauna.
As a result of the exploitations of the
SUNPP for environment the following main
influences are encountered:
Radiation influence. During operation
of the SUNPP in the normal mode localiza-
tion of radioactive products in the reactor
plant is provided by special water and gas
purification systems.
In the monitoring zone of the SUNPP
air pollution by radioactive substances due
mainly to the presence of artificial radio-
nuclide 137Cs and radionuclides 137Cs, 60Co,
58Co, 54Mn, 95Zr, 134Cs are registered in 75 ±
± 25 % of selected samples [Environmental
�, 2016; Lysychenko, 2017]. Episodically
present in air radionuclides 51Cr, 90Sr, 131I,
110 mAg, 95Nb, 103Ru, mainly in period of plan-
ned production repairs.
In unusual situation it is probable con-
YU. L. ZABULONOV, S. G. BOYCHENKO, O. O. ZHOLUDENKO, M. A. BUHERA
288 Ãåîôèçè÷åñêèé æóðíàë ¹ 5, Ò. 40, 2018
tamination of environment by products from
separation of radioisotopes, radioactive sub-
stances, in the form of products of neutron
activation in the circumstances of corrosi-
on of structural materials (tritium (3H)), gas-
eous radioactive particles, including evapo-
ration of tritium water and inert gases, aero-
sols, gaseous particles, etc.).
Also as potential sources of radioactive
contamination of the Tashlyk Reservoir can
be discharges through the drainage and se-
wage system from the control tanks of drai-
nage water purification systems, and waters
from specialized laundries.
In the zone of the SUNPP influence, state
of radioactive contamination of the water
catchment area is estimated as �satisfacto-
rily� (radiation levels of cesium-137, stron-
tium-90 and plutonium-239 within accep-
table levels) [Environmental ..., 2016; Lysy-
chenko, 2017].
Chemical influence. Sources of chemi-
cal impact on the environment are perio-
dic non-radioactive emissions and dischar-
ges that occur in the facilities of the SUNPP
and contain chemical elements and substa-
ces, allowable content of which are regula-
ted by sanitary norms and regulations.
In the atmosphere released gas-aerosol
non-radioactive emissions from auxiliary struc-
tures and industrial premises: about 30 %
consists of sulfur dioxide, 20 % from so-
lid particles (soot, dust), 20 % are non-me-
thane volatile organic compounds, and rest
are nitrogen dioxide, oxide and carbon dio-
xide, hydrocarbons, metal compounds, hyd-
rogen sulfide, ammonia, chlorine, etc. [Envi-
ronmental ..., 2016; Lysychenko, 2017].
Stationary and mobile sources in the ter-
ritory of the SUNPP emits into atmosphere
approximately 6 tons of pollutants per year
[Environmental ..., 2016; Lysychenko, 2017].
Thermal influence. The most influential
on the environment is thermal factor of the
SUNPP. About 6570 % of the heat gene-
rated in the reactors through cooling sys-
tems of the water reservoirs and discharged
in the atmosphere are dumped. In compa-
rison with the air temperature, the water tem-
perature in the cooling water reservoir is
increased and this leads to intense evapo-
ration from the water surface, which incre-
ases the frequency of the evaporation fogs
formation.
The evaporation of water during cool-
ing is about (4045) ⋅ 106 m3 per year. Ac-
cording to the data presented in [Environ-
mental ..., 2016; Lysychenko, 2017], the ther-
mal flux into the atmosphere is equal to:
during the operation of one power unit is
(1.72.6) ⋅ 109 W , and from three power
units are (3.45.3) ⋅ 109 W.
The problem statement. The purpose of
this work is to analyze the peculiarities of
regional climate change and of runoff from
the middle-lower part of the basin of the
Southern Bug River (the climatic landscape
zone of the Northwest Greater Black Sea
area) in the second half of the XX century
and at the beginning of the XXI century in
the region of the SUNPP location.
Materials and methods of research.
The main results of work are obtained based
on empirical data were processed accord-
ing to known standard methods of statisti-
cal analysis of meteorological information
by and by analytical review of published
materials. In this study, empirical data were
used from the meteorological stations Per-
vomaisk (19452017), Voznesensk (19452015)
and Yuzhnoukrayinsk (20052017) (avera-
ge annual and average monthly of surface
temperature of air and atmospheric preci-
pitation). Meteorological data of �The Ukra-
inian Cadaster of Climate� were also used
for the period 19611990 (norms of the ma-
in parameters, including data about wind
speed, relative humidity, evaporation and
repeatability of fogs etc.) [The Climate ...,
2005].
The semi-empirical models, that by based
on representation of time dependency of
the mentioned climatic characteristics in form
of three items (annual component and two
harmonic components) and approximation
of the dependency from geographical co-
ordinates and the empirical constants (as a
result of statistical analysis of data) were
used here [Voloshchuk, Boychenko, 2003;
Boychenko, 2008].
THE TENDENCIES OF CLIMATE CHANGE ...
Ãåîôèçè÷åñêèé æóðíàë ¹ 5, Ò. 40, 2018 289
For the estimation of runoff of the mid-
dle-lower part of the basin of the Southern
Bug River the data are used from the ave-
rage annual and average monthly water
consumption at the water posts of Pervo-
maisk and Oleksandrivka for the period of
19142016. During the research of runoff,
characteristics within the Southern Bug Ri-
ver monitoring territory the observations da-
ta were used from the Hydrometeorologi-
cal Service (data carried out by its depart-
ments from 1914). The length of the series
consisting of the average monthly water con-
sumption for each of the 12 months, the ave-
rage annual, maximum and minimum dai-
ly and annual water use is more than 90
years old. During data processing the me-
thods were used that are commonly used
in hydrometry and hydrology [Rozhdestven-
sky, Chebotarev, 1974; Horoshkov, 1979; Ga-
lushchenko, 1987].
The cycles of fluctuations of annual wa-
ter runoff of rivers are presented by inde-
xes of integral curve, which have been cal-
culated using the formula: ∑
(Ki � 1) /, where
Ki modular coefficient of runoff for each
year: ratio of current year index (Qi to its
annual mean value Q0 , Ki = Qi /Q0 , n
quantity of monitoring years. Cv coeffi-
cient of variation of average annual water
runoff for i-th year, n quantity of moni-
toring years , calculated according to the
formula:
1
1 2
−
−
=
∑
n
K
C
n
i i
v
)(
[Horoshkov,
1979]. Modular coefficient characterizes the
dryness of the year. Thus years with modu-
lar coefficient more than 1.0 water-rich,
and less than 1.0 water-poor.
In the research the materials �Environ-
mental Impact Assessment (EIA): Increa-
sing the level of the Oleksandrivske reser-
voir to the project mark of +20.7 m� were
used [Environmental ..., 2016].
The results of the research. Climatic con-
ditions of the landscape zone of the North-
west Greater Black Sea area (the middle-
lower part of the basin of the Southern Bug
River). The climatic conditions of the land-
scape zone of the Northwest Greater Black
Sea area (the middle-lower part of the ba-
sin of the Southern Bug River). The clima-
tic conditions in the region of the location
of the SUNPP are moderately continental,
with insufficient humidification regime, which
is characteristic of the steppe zone (hot sum-
mer with the frequent occurrence of arid
phenomena, warm and dry winters with pre-
cipitation in the form of snow, wet snow and
rain) [Marynych, 1989; Lipinskyy et al., 2003].
The average annual air temperature in
this part of the basin of the Southern Bug
River ranges from 8 to 10 °C. The meteo-
rological norms of temperature for the peri-
od 19611990 for the meteostations locat-
ed in this region Pervomaysk and Vozne-
sensk are 8.8 ± 0.9 and 9.6 ± 1.0 °C, and the
annual amount of precipitation are 553 ±
± 113 and 517 ± 109 mm accordingly (in se-
parate years the minimum amount of pre-
cipitation is ∼285 mm, and the maximum is
∼800 mm per year) [The Climate ..., 2005].
The seasonal course of surface tempera-
ture of air has a characteristic maximum in
July 1922 °C and a minimum in January
at an average of �2 ÷ �7 °C, and in other
seasonal periods, the average temperature
is �1 ÷ 17 °C in spring and �3 ÷ 16 °C in
autumn [The Climate ..., 2005].
The maximum atmospheric precipitation
in the warm period of the year is 330350
mm, and in the cold period of the year is
185200 mm. However, there is a comple-
te absence of precipitation (for example, in
August 1961 at station Pervomaysk and in
August 1958 at station Voznesensk) or ex-
cess of meteorological norm in 34 times
(for example, in August 1947 at station Per-
vomaysk (236 mm/month) and in August
1948 at station Voznesensk (239 mm/month))
can be observed [The Climate ..., 2005].
Winter in this region is relatively warm
(average temperature is �3.1 ÷ �2.1 °C) and
with precipitation (most often during the last
years) in the form of wet snow and rain in
the past few decades but long-time avera-
ge the height of the snow cover is ∼511
cm with an average duration of 4065 days,
and the depth of freezing of the soil to 30 ±
± 15 cm [The Climate ..., 2005].
YU. L. ZABULONOV, S. G. BOYCHENKO, O. O. ZHOLUDENKO, M. A. BUHERA
290 Ãåîôèçè÷åñêèé æóðíàë ¹ 5, Ò. 40, 2018
The total evaporation in the lower part
of the basin of the Southern Bug River is
seasonal: in winter, it is about 3040 mm,
in summer up to 200300 mm, in spring
up to 125160 mm and in autumn up to
8095 mm [Lipinskyy et al., 2003].
The fogs often appear in the cold peri-
od of the year in the lower reaches of the
Southern Bug River, the average number
of days with fog during the year is about
3039 days [Lipinskyy et al., 2003; The Cli-
mate ..., 2005].
The vegetative period, in the lower part
of the Southern Bug River basin lasts an ave-
rage of 225 ± 4 days [Lipinskyy et al., 2003].
The average annual air humidity in the
region is 7075 %, in the cold period of
the year its value reaches 83 ± 3, and in
summer 62 ± 3 % [The Climate ..., 2005];
in this region is 23 m/s (in winter up to
34 m/s and in summer up to 2 m/s. With
strong winds at a speed of ≥15 m/s on ave-
rage is 3035 days, and in separate years
up to 65 days per year is observed, and the
repetition of hurricane winds at a speed of
≥30 m/s is fixed once every 25 years [Li-
pinskyy et al., 2003].
It should be noted, that the meteorologi-
cal parameters might vary somewhat de-
pending on the chosen period, due to the
presence of quasiperiodic oscillations and un-
der the influence of modern climate chan-
ge [Lipinskyy et al., 2003].
Analysis of water regime of the middle-
lower part of the basin of the Southern Bug
River and of the influence from SUNPP. The
Southern Bug River is the main waterway
in the region (total length is 792 km, area
of water catchment is 63.7 ⋅ 103 km2, depth
is 1.58.0 m, width of channel is 50200m,
speed of water flow is 0.10.3 m/s, volu-
me of average perennial runoff is 2.9 km3)
[Khilchevsky, 2009]. The Southern Bug Ri-
ver basin crosses the forest-steppe and step-
pe zone of Ukraine (the upper and middle
parts are located on the Volyn-Podilskyii and
Dnipro Highlands, and the lower one in
the Black Sea Lowland).
For water regime of Southern Bug River
some uneven distribution of drainage by the
territory of the basin, and during the year
(prevailing snow and rain nutrition, and un-
derground runoff) is typical.
The annual runoff of the Southern Bug
River is formed in the upper reaches of the
forest-steppe part of the basin (56 %), and
the flow of steppe part of the basin (mainly
in the lower part of the basin) is only 17.5%
from annual flow of the whole river. In spring,
observed peak of flood on the river, and
the rest of the year is a stable low flow with
a slight increasing of water content in au-
tumn and in separate winter thaws.
According to the analysis of hydrologi-
cal data from 1914 to 2016, the longest se-
ries of runoff in the Southern Bug River is
urban settlement Oleksandrivka, despite the
significant overregulation (about 200 reser-
voirs and 6.9 thousand ponds with a total
volume of 1.5 km3), and widespread use of
water resources for general needs, the ave-
rage annual water discharge of the South-
ern Bug River in the mouth of the river du-
ring the period from 1914 to 1950 amount-
ed to 87.0 m3/s. After the creation of most
reservoirs and ponds (19511980), it incre-
ased up to 93 m3/s. And after the construc-
tion of the cooling water reservoir of the
South-Ukrainian Nuclear Power Plant and
the filling of the Oleksandrivske Reservoir
to the project mark +14.7 m (19812006)
it did not significantly change and is equal
to approximately 91 ± 30 m3/s (Fig. 1) [Ro-
mas et al., 2006; Khilchevsky, 2009; Lysychen-
ko, 2017].
For Oleksandrivka received decrease of
the annual runoff at �20 m3/s per 100 years
over the period in 19142016 years or for
Pervomaisk change was negligible for pe-
riod 19452016, but traced periods were
with significant variations in water content
(30200 m3/s). From the 70-s of the last
century and until now, the period of reduc-
tion of water content is continuing [Environ-
mental ..., 2016; Lysychenko, 2017].
Comparing the difference between the
integral curves of the average annual air
temperature (Fig. 2, a), annual precipitati-
on (Fig. 2, b) and runoff (Fig. 2, c), it is pos-
sible to conclude that fluctuations of annu-
THE TENDENCIES OF CLIMATE CHANGE ...
Ãåîôèçè÷åñêèé æóðíàë ¹ 5, Ò. 40, 2018 291
al runoff are determined, first of all, by the
long-term dynamics of precipitation. The ne-
gative phase of fluctuations of annual pre-
cipitation is accompanied by shallowness of
water, and moist (positive) by abundance of
water.
The transition of annual precipitation into
the positive phase (1968) caused an appro-
priate transition of runoff to the water-abun-
dant phase in 1970.
It should be noted that during the last
decade there has been a significant decre-
ase in the average annual water consump-
tion of the Southern Bug River within moni-
toring territory (by 20 % in Pervomaisk wa-
ter post, and by 30 % in Oleksandrivka wa-
ter post), the main factor of which is the ne-
gative phase of annual fluctuations of pre-
cipitation, which is accompanied by a shal-
lowness cycle, which began in 2007 (see
Fig. 2, c).
In Fig. 3 it is shown that at the begin-
ning of the next hydrological cycle in 1981,
it is expedient to divide the monitoring pe-
riod into two periods: the first period from
the beginning of the monitoring to 1980 and
the second period from 1981 to 2016. For
these periods, an intra-annual flow distribu-
tion was determined, which are presented
graphically in Fig. 2, c.
As can be seen from Fig. 3 the intra-an-
nual distribution of runoff in the zone of im-
pact of the South-Ukrainian Energy Comp-
lex is characterized by certain uniformity
during the year. Some increase of water dis-
charge in the beginning of autumn (August
September) is explained by large dischar-
ges of water from the reservoir under the
most unfavorable conditions for the forma-
tion of the runoff of the Southern Bug Ri-
ver in late summer early autumn.
In general , on the water discharge for-
mation from Southern Bug River the ur-
ban settlement Oleksandrivka has a certa-
in impact by Tashlyk Reservoir of the fill-
ing type, which is a water cooling reservoir
for the South-Ukrainian Nuclear Power Plant,
and by Oleksandrivske reservoir of the chan-
nel type operated by the South-Ukrainian
Energy Complex.
Comparing the two mentioned above pe-
riods, it is noted a significant equalization
Fig. 1. Long-term changes in the runoff of the
Southern Bug River and its trend lines on the
water post of Pervomaisk (1) city and urban set-
tlement Oleksandrivka (2) (3, 4 linear trend,
in accordance) for the period 19142017.
Fig. 2. Residual integral curve of the average annual air temperature (a), annual precipi-
tation (b) from Pervomaisk (1) and Voznesensk (2) meteorological stations and runoff (c)
from Oleksandrivka water post (3).
YU. L. ZABULONOV, S. G. BOYCHENKO, O. O. ZHOLUDENKO, M. A. BUHERA
292 Ãåîôèçè÷åñêèé æóðíàë ¹ 5, Ò. 40, 2018
of the flow of the river on the monitoring
territory. The runoff significantly decreased
in the spring period, on the Pervomaisk wa-
ter post by average 13.7 %, and on the Olek-
sandrivka water post by 17.4%, and increa-
sed in summer, autumn and winter periods.
The water intake for reversible water sup-
ply of the SUNPP is carried out from the So-
uthern Bug River through the Tashlyk SP
cooling pond (in 20102014 volume of re-
versible water supply was 3.38�350 ⋅ 109 m3,
and the expenses for household needs are
fluctuating significantly, from 0.60 ⋅ 106 to
1.43 ⋅ 106 m3) [Lysychenko, 2017]. After eleva-
ting of Oleksandrivske reservoir up to 14.7m,
the area of the water basin increased from
770 hectares to 1025 hectares, compared to
the area at level 8.0 m, which was 255 hec-
tares [ Khilchevsky, 2009; Magas, Trokhy-
menko, 2013].
In the last decade a tendency was ob-
served to some increased oxygen content
in water. In the warm period of year, situa-
tion was sometimes observed with an oxy-
gen concentration of ∼4 mg/dm3 (limit of
concentration). However, it should be taken
into account the ratio between increasing
of oxygen content and increasing of avera-
ge water temperature (this was probably due
to the intensification of phytoplankton deve-
lopment) [Khilchevsky, 2009].
According to the data [Lysychenko, 2017],
mineralization of water in the urban settle-
ment Oleksandrivka (in the region of the
SUNPP location) is: in the spring flood
600 mg/dm3; summerautumn low water
periods 674 mg/dm3; in winter low wa-
ter periods 701 mg/dm3.
During last decade, pH level of surface
water of the Southern Bug River basin fluc-
tuated within the range of 7.717.94. Fixed
increase of pH for the city of Pervomaisk,
which correlates with the decrease of CO2
content in water and pH increase in the lo-
wer part of the river (urban village Oleksand-
rivka) is explained by the influence of the
sedition phenomena [Khilchevsky, 2009].
In the delta of the Southern Bug River,
there are the unfavorable situation also. So,
in the Bug Liman take place: increase of
water salinity, decrease of depths, increase
of water temperature, reduce of volume of
fresh water flow from river and intensifica-
tion of water inflow from the Black Sea (thro-
ugh raising sea level at 1820 cm during
the last 100 years), periodic traces of the
hydrogen sulfide from the Black Sea in wa-
ter, high content of nutrients (ammonia and
nitrate nitrogen, mineral phosphorus, etc.)
[Kostyushin, 2007; Afanasyev et al., 2012;
Magas, Trokhymenko, 2013]. All this has
led to the degradation of inherent biodiver-
Fig. 3. The average annual distribution of runoff (share in the year expressed in percentage)
of Southern Bug River from Pervomaisk (a) and Voznesensk (b) meteorological stations.
THE TENDENCIES OF CLIMATE CHANGE ...
Ãåîôèçè÷åñêèé æóðíàë ¹ 5, Ò. 40, 2018 293
sity in the estuary and cause the increa-
sing the number of marine species.
Features of climate change in the mid-
dle-lower part of Southern Bug River. Glo-
bal warming observed since the end of 19th
century is caused not only by natural cli-
mate changes on the centuries scale but al-
so by anthropogenic load on the Earth�s cli-
mate system, expressed, first of all, in the
intensification of greenhouse effect. In ac-
cordance with [IPCC, 2014], the global tem-
perature for the last ∼150 years was on ave-
rage increased by 0.8 ± 1 °Ñ.
The analysis of data of instrumental ob-
servations of a network of meteorological
stations of Ukraine for the last 100 130
years showed that its climatic conditions
have reacted to global warming as follows:
the annual temperature increased by 0.8 ±
± 0.2 °Ñ/100 years and linear trend of tem-
perature for the last 50 years was even al-
most twice as much (1.3 ± 0.3 °Ñ/100 years,
insignificant increase of the annual sums of
precipitations (57 % for 100 years) [Boy-
chenko et al., 2016b].
In the conditions of the current regional
peculiarities of climate change and taking
into account long-term prospects, the eco-
logically unfavorable situation in the basin
of the Southern Bug River is even more
complicated, in the context of increased an-
thropogenic load on the environment [Boy-
chenko et al., 2016a].
Analysis of meteorological observations
data for the climatic landscape zone of the
Northwest Greater Black Sea area (in the
location of the SUNPP) in the XX century
showed that the following climate changes
occurred, namely [Boychenko, 2008; Boy-
chenko et al. , 2016 b]: an increase in the
average annual surface temperature only at
0.4 ± 0.1 °Ñ per 100 years; an increase in
the annual amount of precipitation by 510%;
aridization of climatic conditions, during the
warm period of the year (reduction of atmo-
spheric precipitation, especially in May and
AugustSeptember); decrease in the amp-
litude of the seasonal temperature variati-
on: significant warming in winter and spring
months up to ∼0.4 ± 0.1 °Ñ per 100 years,
and in summer months the warming is in-
significant.
However, more significant global warm-
ing is characteristic in the second half of
the XX century and in the beginning of the
XXI century [IPCC, 2014]. These manifes-
tations are also characteristic on a regional
scale [Voloshchuk, Boychenko, 2003; Boy-
chenko et al., 2016b].
The climate change for the middle-lower
part of the basin of the Southern Bug River
(in the location of the SUNPP) for the peri-
od 19452017 will be considered and used
data for the meteostations Pervomaysk, Voz-
nesensk and Yuzhnoukraiinsk.
It is shown in Fig. 4 shown, the long-ti-
me course of air temperature at the meteo-
rological stations Pervomaisk (for the peri-
od from 1945 to 2017) and Voznesensk (for
the period from 1945 to 2015): the values of
the coefficients of linear trends are, respec-
tively, 0.28 and 0.16 °Ñ per 10 years (at ave-
rage temperature of 9.2 ± 1.0 and 9.9 ± 0.9 °Ñ,
respectively).
It should be noted, that for the last se-
veral decades, the rates of warming, both in
the whole territory of Ukraine and this regi-
on became significantly higher [Boychenko
Fig. 4. Long-time changes of average surface tem-
perature of air for the meteostations of Pervomaisk
for the period 19452017 (1, scale on the left) and
Voznesensk for the period 19452015 (2, scale on
the right) (1a, 2a semi-empirical model, 3
linear trend).
YU. L. ZABULONOV, S. G. BOYCHENKO, O. O. ZHOLUDENKO, M. A. BUHERA
294 Ãåîôèçè÷åñêèé æóðíàë ¹ 5, Ò. 40, 2018
et al. , 2016a, 2017a]. So, the values of the
coefficients of linear trends at the meteo-
stations Pervomaysk (for period 1971 2017)
and Voznesensk (for period 19712015) are,
respectively, 0.50 and 0.28 °Ñ per 10 years.
The warming of the climate on the planet
caused the spatial-temporal redistribution of
atmospheric precipitation in Ukraine. Thus,
in the XX century in the southwestern, sou-
thern and southeastern regions of Ukraine
was an increase in the annual amount of pre-
cipitation within 10 ± 5 % [Voloshchuk, Boy-
chenko, 2003; Boychenko et al., 2016b].
According to meteorological observations
at weather stations Pervomaisk and Vozne-
sensk for the period 19452017, the annu-
al amount of atmospheric precipitation are
538 ± 107 and 566 ± 131 mm per year, respec-
tively and the values of the linear trend co-
efficients are 2.2 and �1.5 mm per 10 years,
respectively (Fig. 5). Thus, over the past 70
years in this region as a whole, the annual
amount of precipitation has increased on 1
2 %, that is within the limits of statistical er-
ror. However, for the last several decades
for this region negative the values of the co-
efficients of linear trends are characteristic
at the meteostations Pervomaisk (for the pe-
riod 19712017) and Voznesensk (for the
period 19712015) they are, respectively,
�17.9 and �54.5 mm per 10 years.
Such regional climate change can lead,
to a certain extent , to the decrease of wa-
ter content of the reservoirs , due anomaly
increasing temperatures and decreasing pre-
cipitations in summer (July�August) and
increased evaporation in basin of the South-
ern Bug River. Slight increase annual the
amount of precipitations (and in the cold
season) in this part of the basin do not com-
pensate such negative tendency (the drain
in this part of the basin is only 1618 % of
the annual flow of the entire river). So, ra-
ther complicated and dangerous hydrolo-
gical situation in the basin of the Southern
Bug River and reservoirs for period 2015�
2017 due to the lowest water level by peri-
od of operation of reservoirs was due to the
difficult weather conditions (aridization of cli-
matic conditions) and increased water con-
sumption (the runoff of the Southern Bug
River in August�September was about 12�
15 % less than the monthly norm) [Boychen-
ko et al., 2017a].
The seasonal course of surface tempera-
ture and amount of atmospheric precipi-
tation and peculiarities of their changes.
As noted above, the seasonal course of sur-
face temperature of air has a characteris-
tic maximum in July 1922 °Ñ and a mini-
mum in January at an average of �2 ÷ �7 °Ñ),
and in other seasonal periods, the average
temperature is �1 ÷ 17 °Ñ in spring and –3 ÷
÷ 16 °Ñ in autumn [The Climate ..., 2005].
The precipitation has maximum in the warm
period of the year 330350 mm, and in the
cold period of the year 185200 mm [Lipin-
skyy et al., 2003, The Climate �, 2005].
The analysis of the seasonal distribution
of the mean square deviation of the surfa-
ce temperature and the amount of precipi-
tation (characteristic variability of the wea-
ther), showed the presence of a clearly ex-
pressed nature [Lipinskyy et al., 2003; The
Climate ... , 2005]. Therefore, for meteoro-
logical stations Pervomaisk and Voznesensk
the maximum of volume of the mean-square
Fig. 5. Long-time changes of the annual sums of
atmospheric precipitation for the meteostations
of Pervomaisk for the period 19452017 (1, scale
on the left) and Voznesensk for the period 1945
2015 (2, scale on the right) (1a, 2a semi-em-
pirical model, 3 linear trend).
THE TENDENCIES OF CLIMATE CHANGE ...
Ãåîôèçè÷åñêèé æóðíàë ¹ 5, Ò. 40, 2018 295
deviation of the temperature falls on No-
vemberMarch (about 2.03.5 °Ñ), and in
the warm period of AprilSeptember 1.6
1.9 °Ñ. We note that it is for the cold peri-
od characterized by a significant tempera-
ture variation of temperature with its signi-
ficant fluctuations, especially through 0 °Ñ.
The situation is on the contrary, for the se-
asonal distribution of the value of the mean-
square deviation of the amount of precipi-
tation, the maximum of the mean-square de-
viation falls on May�September and vari-
es within 3547 mm/month (due to inten-
sification of synoptic processes and the in-
herent maximum rainfall in summer), and
in the cold period of OctoberApril 2228
mm/month.
In the conditions of modern climate chan-
ge, certain tendencies appeared during the
seasonal course of temperature. So, on the
meteostations Pervomaisk ( for the period
1945�2017) and Voznesensk (for the peri-
od 1945�2015) the maximum warming was
typical for JanuaryMarch (0.350.54 °Ñ
per 10 years), and AprilDecember a warm-
ing was less intense with 0.10.27 °Ñ per
10 years. However, for the period 1971 2017,
with a certain warming in the cold period of
the year (0.370.54 °Ñ per 10 years), there
was a tendency for significant warming in
JulyAugust (0.761.1 °Ñ per 10 years)
(Fig. 6, a).
For the seasonal distribution of the amo-
unt of precipitation in the conditions of mo-
dern climate change some tendencies are
also revealed. Thus, for the meteorological
stations Pervomaisk (19452017) and Voz-
nesensk (19452015) insignificant increase
of precipitation in the cold period of the ye-
ar and decrease in summer were characte-
ristic (Fig. 6, b) [Boychenko et al., 2017b, 2018].
However, for the period from 1971 to 2017
(with insignificant increase for precipitati-
on in the cold period of the year: 24 mm/
/month per 10 year), a tendency for a sig-
nificant decrease for precipitation in July
August (1015 mm/month per 10 year) ap-
peared. Moreover, this decrease for preci-
pitation in JulyAugust is accompanied by
a significant increase in the temperature:
0.71.0 °C per 10 years.
Such a significant increase in the tem-
perature in summer intensifies the evapo-
ration and leads, to reduce of the water con-
tent of reservoirs inclusive.
It was established that, against the back-
ground of a general decrease in values of
the continentality indexes on the territory
Fig. 6. The seasonal course of average temperature (a) and the sums of precipitation for the me-
teostations Pervomaisk (1 for the period from 1946 to 2017; 3 for the period from 1971 to
2017) and Voznesensk (b) (2 for the period from 1971 to 2015; 4 for the period from 1971 to
2015).
YU. L. ZABULONOV, S. G. BOYCHENKO, O. O. ZHOLUDENKO, M. A. BUHERA
296 Ãåîôèçè÷åñêèé æóðíàë ¹ 5, Ò. 40, 2018
of Ukraine for the XX century and in the
beginning of the XXI century (due to the
significant warming during the cold period
of the year, which is a manifestation of the
effect of climate decontinentality [Volosh-
chuk, Boychenko, 2003; Boychenko et al.,
2016b], there are the increasing trends for
the period of 19712017 (due to the tempe-
rature rise in the warm season, especially in
MayAugust). So, the amplitude of tempe-
rature for the period of 19002017 decrea-
sed by –0.5 ± 0.2 °C per 100 years and in
the period of 19712017 intensively incre-
ased by 1.1 ± 0.6 °C per 100 years.
For the long-time course of continenta-
lity indices and the amplitude of the seaso-
nal course of surface temperature (A) there
is a certain cycle: a decrease in 19051920,
19401960, 19751995, and an increase in
19201940, 19601975 and 19952017 wi-
thin ∼510 % [Boychenko et al., 2017b, 2018].
Index of continentality Gorczynsky KG for
meteorological stations Pervomaisk and Voz-
nesensk is about 38 ± 5 for the period 1945
2015, and the value of the amplitude of the
seasonal temperature is A = 12.9 ± 1.3 °C.
For the middle-lower part of the basin of the
Southern Bug River in the ÕÕ century and
at the beginning of the XXI century there
was a general tendency to reduce the valu-
es of continentality indices and the ampli-
tude of the seasonal temperature variation
(due to warming in the cold season), so, the
amplitude decreased by –0.7 ÷ �1.1 °C per
100 years. For the period of 19712017, the
tendency of their increase (due to the tem-
peratu-re increase during the warm period
of the year, especially, in MayAugust) and
the period of 19712017 is intensively in-
creasing on ∼1.21.71 °C per 100 years.
It should be noted that at the meteosta-
tion Pervomaisk seasonal changes are more
intense than at the meteostation Voznesensk
(due to microclimatic features).
Microclimatic features in the region
of the location of the South-Ukraine NPP.
Microclimatic features in the region of the
location of the South-Ukraine NPP. The in-
fluence on the microclimatic conditions of
the area can be caused by peculiarities of
orography and intensive evaporation of wa-
ter in the cooling systems of the SUNPP,
which is about (4045) ⋅ 106 m3 per year
[Environmental �, 2016; Lysychenko, 2017].
An analysis of the changes in the micro-
climatic conditions in the 30 km zone of
the impact of the SUNPP was conducted
by comparing the thermal regime and the
humidification regime at the meteostations
of Pervomaisk, Voznesensk and Yuzhnouk-
rainsk for the period 20062017. The corre-
lation coefficients for these stations for the
temperature are 0.910.96 %, and for atmo-
spheric precipitation are less 0.60 0.75 %.
The difference in temperature between
reservoirs and the South Bug River leads to
significant evaporation from the surface of
water and the formation of evaporation fogs.
During the year, the water temperature
is several degrees higher on the surface of
the Tashlyk Reservoir (an area of 1.2 km2);
in winter, in the cooling-reservoir the tempe-
rature water is constantly within the range
of 59 °C [Environmental ..., 2016; Boychen-
ko et al., 2017a].
The number of days with fog during the
year, are observed on average at stations
Pervomaisk 38,8 ± 10,7 days, Voznesensk
30,4 ± 8,6 days, and days with fog are mo-
re often observed in October March 25
34 days and in April only 45 days [Lipin-
skyy et al., 2003; The Climate ..., 2005].
The analysis of the possible influence of
SUNPP on microclimatic conditions (incre-
asing temperature, intensity of evaporation
and repeatability of fogs) showed, that in
the conditions of modern climate changes
it is necessary to take them into account du-
ring the operation of the South-Ukraine NPP
in the future.
Scenarios of possible of climate change
for the middle-lower part of the basin of
the Southern Bug River (the climatic land-
scape zone of the Northwest Greater Black
Sea area) by 2050. The regional scenarios
of the possible climate changes by 2050 for
Ukraine were developed, that take into ac-
count the established tendencies of the trans-
formation of the climatic fields of annual sur-
face temperature and annual sums of pre-
THE TENDENCIES OF CLIMATE CHANGE ...
Ãåîôèçè÷åñêèé æóðíàë ¹ 5, Ò. 40, 2018 297
cipitation in the territory of Ukraine for the
XX century [Voloshchuk, Boychenko, 2003]
and the possible scenarios of future global
climate changes (RCP4.5 � ∆T ∼ 2.0 °C and
RCP8.5 � ∆T ∼ 4.0 °C for the end XXI cen-
tury) [IPCC, 2014], namely [Boychenko et
al., 2016b].
Scenario 1: it is likely not to exceed (∆T∼
∼1.4 ± 0.2 °C) and increase of the annual
precipitation sums by 10 ± 5 % and the cli-
mate aridity in the warm period of the year
(May�August).
Scenario 2: it is likely to exceed (∆T∼ 2.4 ±
± 0.3 °C) and differential spatial distributi-
on of annual precipitation sums, namely the
increase in northern, northwest and north-
east regions by 15 ± 5 % and decrease in
southern, southeast and southwest regions
by 15 ± 5 %. At such a level of warming in
the northern regions, a display of the ef-
fect of excessive moisture is possible, and
in the south, on the contrary, aridization of
the climate with the display of the effect of
desertification is possible.
Further, the contrast of sums precipita-
tion between wet and dry regions and bet-
ween wet and dry seasons will increase, al-
though there may be regional exceptions.
For the climatic landscape zone of the
Northwest Greater Black Sea area (the mid-
dle-lower part of the basin of the Southern
Bug River), we have developed scenarios of
possible changes of the temperature by the
2050, which take into account the global and
regional peculiarities of climate change.
Note, that the warming in the territory
of Ukraine in the XX century has a hetero-
geneous character, so in the southern regi-
ons the warming has been 1020 % slower,
but for the last decades, the warming has
been significantly intensified, due to a sig-
nificant increase in the temperature in sum-
mer [Voloshchuk, Boychenko, 2003; Boychen-
ko et al., 2016b].
When constructing scenarios for possib-
le changes in temperature for the climatic
landscape of the Northwest Greater Black
Sea area were taken into account by global
scenarios of temperature changes RCP4.5
and RCP8.5 to the end XXI century [IPCC,
2014], semi-empirical scenarios for Ukraine
(Scenario 1 and Scenario 2) [Boychenko, 2008],
and tendencies of climate change in the re-
gion for in the second half of the XX cen-
tury and in the second half of the XX cen-
tury and at the beginning of the XXI cen-
tury) [Boychenko et al. , 2016b]. Consequ-
ently, climate change scenarios for the cli-
matic landscape zone of the Northwest Gre-
ater Black Sea region are as follows (sce-
narios are countdown from 1900):
• optimistic scenario (scenario of global war-
ming RCP4.5 + Scenario 1 for Ukraine +
+ temperature trends for in the second
half of the XX century) it is ∆T2050(O) ≈ 1.4 ±
± 0.3 °C;
• pessimistic scenario (global warming sce-
nario RCP8.5 + Scenario 2 for Ukraine +
+ temperature trends for the period 1950
2015) it is ∆T2050(P)
≈ 2.2 ± 0.3 °C.
Fig. 7 shows optimistic and pessimistic sce-
nario of climate changes landscape zone of
the Northwest Greater Black Sea area (in
the middle lower part of the basin of the So-
uthern Bug River) by 2050. Note, that the
temperature Anomalies of meteostation Per-
vomaiysk, and meteostation Vosnovensk are
countdown from the period 19452015.
Summary and Conclusions. Feature of
climate change and water regime for the
Fig. 7. Scenarios of temperature changes for
the climatic landscape zone of the Northwest
Greater Black Sea area ( in the middle lower
part of the basin of the South Bug River) by
2050: 1 temperature anomalies of meteo-
station Pervomaisk, 2 temperature anoma-
lies of meteostations Vos-novensk, 3 semi-
empirical oscillation model, 4 optimistic sce-
nario, 5 pessimistic scenario, 6 confi-
dence interval.
YU. L. ZABULONOV, S. G. BOYCHENKO, O. O. ZHOLUDENKO, M. A. BUHERA
298 Ãåîôèçè÷åñêèé æóðíàë ¹ 5, Ò. 40, 2018
middle-lower part of the basin of the South-
ern Bug River (in location of the South-Uk-
rainian Nuclear Power Plant) of the second
half of the XX century and at the beginn-
ing of the XXI century are analyzed. Due to
climate change, the increase of the avera-
ge annual air temperature (on 0,160,28 °C
per 10 year) and insignificant increase of an-
nual the amount of precipitation in this re-
gion (on 12 %) for period 19452017 oc-
curred. However, more intense warming and
negative tendency decrease of annual the
amount of precipitation (on 310 % and in
summer on 2030%) for the last several de-
cades at the meteostations Pervomaisk and
Voznesensk and was observed.
Such regional climate change can lead,
to a certain extent , to the decrease of wa-
ter content of the reservoirs, due anomaly
increasing temperatures and decreasing pre-
cipitations in summer (July August) and
increased evaporation in basin of the South-
ern Bug River. Slight increase annual the
amount of precipitations (and in the cold
season) in this part of the basin do not com-
pensate such negative tendency (the drain
in this part of the basin is only 1618 % of
the annual flow of river). Rather complica-
ted and dangerous hydrological situation in
the basin of the Southern Bug River and re-
servoirs for period 20152017 due to the lo-
west water level by period of operation of
reservoirs was due to the difficult weather
conditions (aridization of climatic conditions)
and increased water consumption (the run-
off of the Southern Bug River in August�
September was about 1215% less than the
monthly norm).
In the delta of the Southern Bug River,
there are the unfavorable situation also. So,
in the Bug Liman take place: increase of
water salinity, decrease of depths, increase
of water temperature, reduce of volume of
fresh water flow from river and intensifica-
tion of water inflow from the Black Sea.
The regional climate change and water
content can lead to some complications in
the further effective exploitation of SUNPP
and raising the level of the reservoir, probab-
ly, will be accompanied by negative envi-
ronmental impact that should be avoided.
Therefore, it is important to find a reasonab-
le compromise between economic feasibili-
ty and preservation of the environment.
The tendencies of climate change and water regime
of the middle- lower part in the basin of Southern Bug
River (in the region of location of the South-Ukrainian
Nuclear Power Plant)
Yu. L. Zabulonov, S. G. Boychenko, O. O. Zholudenko, M. A. Buhera, 2018
Feature of climate change and water regime for the middle-lower part of the basin
of the Southern Bug River (in location of the South-Ukrainian Nuclear Power Plant) of
the second half of the XX century and at the beginning of the XXI century are analy-
zed. Due to climate change, the increase of the average annual air temperature (on
0.16�0.28 °C per 10 year) and insignificant increase of annual amount of precipitati-
on in this region (on 1�2 %) for period 1945�2017 occurred. However, more intense
warming and negative tendency decrease of annual amount of precipitation (on 3�
10 % and in summer on 20�30 %) for the last several decades at the meteostations Per-
vomaisk and Voznesensk were observed. Such regional climate change can lead, to a
certain extent, to the decrease of water content of the reservoirs, due to anomaly in-
creasing temperatures and decreasing precipitations in summer (July�August) and
THE TENDENCIES OF CLIMATE CHANGE ...
Ãåîôèçè÷åñêèé æóðíàë ¹ 5, Ò. 40, 2018 299
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