«Marshall Plan» for Donbass: prerequisites for investment development

The preconditions for restoration and investment development of Donbass according to the international "Marshall Plan" in case of peaceful settlement of armed conflict are determined. Significant advantages of Donbass as an object of the Marshall Plan implementation are shown, in particula...

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Дата:2018
Автори: Kolosov, A., Kolosova, K., Savchenko, O., Kucherenko, S.
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Мова:English
Опубліковано: Інститут економіки промисловості НАН України 2018
Назва видання:Економічний вісник Донбасу
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Цитувати:«Marshall Plan» for Donbass: prerequisites for investment development / A. Kolosov, K. Kolosova, O. Savchenko, S. Kucherenko // Економічний вісник Донбасу. — 2018. — № 4 (54). — С. 5-11. — Бібліогр.: 12 назв. — англ.

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spelling irk-123456789-1501432019-04-02T01:25:12Z «Marshall Plan» for Donbass: prerequisites for investment development Kolosov, A. Kolosova, K. Savchenko, O. Kucherenko, S. Social and economic problems of Donbas The preconditions for restoration and investment development of Donbass according to the international "Marshall Plan" in case of peaceful settlement of armed conflict are determined. Significant advantages of Donbass as an object of the Marshall Plan implementation are shown, in particular, depending on the stages of the peaceful settlement in the Donbass, as well as the directions of investment of the enterprises of the largest cities of Donbas. The proposed estimation of volumes of annual investments, receipt of additional products, possibilities of its immediate consumption is offered. Визначено передумови відновлення й інвестиційного розвитку Донбасу згідно з міжнародним «Планом Маршалла» у разі мирного врегулювання збройного конфлікту. Показано суттєві переваги Донбасу як об’єкту запровадження «плану Маршалла», зокрема, у залежності від етапів мирного врегулювання в Донбасі, а також напрямки інвестування підприємств найбільших міст Донбасу. Запропоновано укрупнену оцінку обсягів щорічних інвестицій, отримання додаткової продукції, можливості її негайного споживання. Определены предпосылки восстановления и инвестиционного развития Донбасса в соответствии с международным «Планом Маршалла» в случае мирного урегулирования вооруженного конфликта. Показаны существенные преимущества Донбасса как объекта осуществления «плана Маршалла», в частности, в зависимости от этапов мирного урегулирования в Донбассе, а также направления инвестирования предприятий крупнейших городов Донбасса. Предложена укрупненная оценка объемов ежегодных инвестиций, получения дополнительной продукции, возможности ее немедленного потребления. 2018 Article «Marshall Plan» for Donbass: prerequisites for investment development / A. Kolosov, K. Kolosova, O. Savchenko, S. Kucherenko // Економічний вісник Донбасу. — 2018. — № 4 (54). — С. 5-11. — Бібліогр.: 12 назв. — англ. 1817-3772 http://dspace.nbuv.gov.ua/handle/123456789/150143 330.322+338.246.8(477+477.62) en Економічний вісник Донбасу Інститут економіки промисловості НАН України
institution Digital Library of Periodicals of National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine
collection DSpace DC
language English
topic Social and economic problems of Donbas
Social and economic problems of Donbas
spellingShingle Social and economic problems of Donbas
Social and economic problems of Donbas
Kolosov, A.
Kolosova, K.
Savchenko, O.
Kucherenko, S.
«Marshall Plan» for Donbass: prerequisites for investment development
Економічний вісник Донбасу
description The preconditions for restoration and investment development of Donbass according to the international "Marshall Plan" in case of peaceful settlement of armed conflict are determined. Significant advantages of Donbass as an object of the Marshall Plan implementation are shown, in particular, depending on the stages of the peaceful settlement in the Donbass, as well as the directions of investment of the enterprises of the largest cities of Donbas. The proposed estimation of volumes of annual investments, receipt of additional products, possibilities of its immediate consumption is offered.
format Article
author Kolosov, A.
Kolosova, K.
Savchenko, O.
Kucherenko, S.
author_facet Kolosov, A.
Kolosova, K.
Savchenko, O.
Kucherenko, S.
author_sort Kolosov, A.
title «Marshall Plan» for Donbass: prerequisites for investment development
title_short «Marshall Plan» for Donbass: prerequisites for investment development
title_full «Marshall Plan» for Donbass: prerequisites for investment development
title_fullStr «Marshall Plan» for Donbass: prerequisites for investment development
title_full_unstemmed «Marshall Plan» for Donbass: prerequisites for investment development
title_sort «marshall plan» for donbass: prerequisites for investment development
publisher Інститут економіки промисловості НАН України
publishDate 2018
topic_facet Social and economic problems of Donbas
url http://dspace.nbuv.gov.ua/handle/123456789/150143
citation_txt «Marshall Plan» for Donbass: prerequisites for investment development / A. Kolosov, K. Kolosova, O. Savchenko, S. Kucherenko // Економічний вісник Донбасу. — 2018. — № 4 (54). — С. 5-11. — Бібліогр.: 12 назв. — англ.
series Економічний вісник Донбасу
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fulltext 5 Економічний вісник Донбасу № 4(54), 2018 SCIENTIFIC ARTICLES UDC 330.322+338.246.8(477+477.62) А. Kolosov, DrHab (Economics), К. Kolosova, О. Savchenko, Lugansk National University by Taras Shevchenko, Starobilsk, S. Kucherenko, PhD (Economics), Dnipro National University named after Oles Honchar «MARSHALL PLAN» FOR DONBASS: PREREQUISITES FOR INVESTMENT DEVELOPMENT Formulation of the problem. The overcoming of the unsatisfactory state of the Ukrainian economy, which is marked by the increase in gross domestic pro- duct (GDP) in 2017 at only 2%, and the expected growth in 2018 – at 3%, requires the attraction of significant volumes of investments, in particular external ones. According to the Gosstat of Ukraine, the amount of di- rect foreign investments in the economy of Ukraine, cal- culated as the cost of equity non-resident owners, ac- counted for a total of 38.982 billion dollars as of July 1, 2017, while the growth for the last half-year amounted to 1.657 billion dollars. Although this gain amounted to 4.4% of the total investment, the absolute value of the indicator does not fully meet the needs of Ukraine [1]. The awareness of the topicality of the problem and the inevitability of the investment path of Ukraine's de- velopment is revealed by its foreign partners, who have recently been involved in the elaboration of an interna- tional investment project entitled "Marshall Plan" for Ukraine, which provides for up to 50 billion euros of in- vestment in Ukraine's economy over 10 years [2]. It is obvious that the central point of this program is Ukraine's readiness to attract these investments, which, in its turn, depends on the fate of military conflict, and, consequently, on the willingness to use the share of foreign investment directly for the restoration of the Donbas. The article is namely devoted to the discussion of this topic. Analysis of the latest publications on the subject of the article. The necessity of introducing foreign in- vestments into the Ukrainian economy is recently in- creasingly becoming the subject of discussion by vari- ous foreign institutions, in particular, by the European Commission [3]. Considerable attention of specialists is paid to the experience of successful foreign investment in the economy of Poland, the Czech Republic and other countries of Eastern Europe [4; 5], which can also be achieved in Ukraine. The issues of readiness of the Ukrainian economy to effectively perceive significant foreign investments remain the subject of attention of researchers for a long time, in particular, monitoring of negative factors of investment in Ukraine, according to the estimation of the The Bleyzer Foundation [6]. It is because of the low state of readiness of Ukraine for the effective use of foreign investments, according to the world rating «Doing Business», it is only in the 8th of the 10 countries that can claim foreign investment. One indicates that very slow inflow of foreign investment is influenced by excessive regulation of business in Ukraine [7]. The issue of foreign investment in the Ukrainian economy has been increasingly connected with the pro- cesses of the anticipated cessation of military conflict in the Donbas and its reintegration into a single economic complex of Ukraine. Thus, even in the recently adopted Coalition Treaty of the Christian Democratic and Chris- tian-Social Unions on the Social Democratic Party in Germany stressed the participation in the financial pool of an investment program for Ukraine, which "concerns the full restoration of its territorial integrity, strengthen- ing of stability and social development .... readiness to participate hugely in the reconstruction of the Donbas" [8]. The productivity of such investment path in the pro- cess of restoration of Donbass was almost for first time expressed in the fall of 2014 [9]. The urgent need for the Donbas economy in foreign investment has recently re- ceived some form of substantiation. Thus, according to the "Draft Regional Target Program for Promotion of Foreign Investments, Development of International Co- operation and the Formation of a Positive Image of Luhansk Oblast", it has been noted that on the territory controlled by the Ukrainian authorities, the industrial complex actually lost about 70% of its potential. Over the past 5 years, the volume of external region's trade Social and economic problems of Donbas А. Kolosov, К. Kolosova, О. Savchenko, S. Kucherenko 6 Економічний вісник Донбасу № 4(54), 2018 has decreased from $ 6847.8 million in 2013 to $ 507.0 million in 2017, while foreign direct investment de- clined from $ 826.4 million (as of 01.01.2013) to $ 441.5 million (as of 01.01.2018) [10]. At the same time, the required amount of attraction of foreign direct invest- ment in the region is estimated at 540.0 million dollars. So, the questions about the preconditions in the Don- bass, which might become a real object of foreign in- vestment under the so-called "Marshall Plan", is the main point of discussion in the article. Thus, the aim of the article is to analyze the pre- conditions for the investment development of the Don- bas on the international "Marshall Plan". Presentation of the main material of the article. The issue of attraction of significant foreign investments to Ukraine, in particular, on the restoration and develop- ment of the Donbas economy, needs to be analyzed in the following two aspects: 1) the readiness of Ukraine to effectively perceive significant foreign investments, the degree of approxi- mation of Ukraine's economy, its banking, tax, judicial system for the civilized solution of ordinary issues that arise in business activities; 2) the role of Donbass in the economy of the coun- try and its importance as the object of the most profita- ble investment in order to obtain an effect beneficial for Ukraine as a whole. In the aspect of increased readiness of Ukraine as a whole, the effective use of investment funds should be eliminated or significantly weaken the impact of the most acute factors that foreign investors have had in re- cent years (see Table 1 [11]). Considering the factors listed in Table.1 one might say that they indicate obvious signs of improving the status of many of them during 2017-18 years. So, with regard to the factors of sphere A, we observe the stabi- lization of the hryvnia exchange rate (factor 2), reduc- tion of price inflation (factor 6), some macroeconomic stabilization (factor 7), simplification of customs proce- dures (factor 8). At the same time, excessively high in- terest rates on lending, general difficulties in obtaining loans (factors 1 and 3), lack of substantial amount of free capital (factor 9) only emphasize that Ukraine's invest- ment development is really possible, primarily due to foreign investment. Table 1 List of the most acute negative factors of foreign investment implementation in Ukraine Sphere of manifestation Negative factors of foreign investment in Ukraine А. General eco- nomic status and management sys- tem economy 1. Excessively high interest rates on loans 2. Inflated devaluation of the hryvnia exchange rate 3. Difficulties in obtaining long-term loans 4. Low level of protection of intellectual and physical property rights 6. Significant price inflation in the domestic market 7. Insufficient macroeconomic stability 8. Complicated customs procedures with high costs 9. Lack of capital market for issuance of securities B. Legislation and practice of doing business 10. The burdensome system of tax collection 11. Absence of real guarantees of protection of shareholders from raiding and illicit partnership 12. Excessive inspections of state authorities for control purposes 13. Unfair competition by monopolists 14. Excessive taxation of business and wages 15. Excessive business regulation 16. Complex bankruptcy and liquidation procedures of enterprises C. Judiciary 17. Disadvantages of judicial field, which make it an obstacle for doing business 18. The level of independence of judges is too low 19. Ineffective enforcement of judgments, their injustice, bias and selectivity D. The level of general corruption 20. Administrative corruption at the level of government officials 21. Corruption in the field of public procurement 22. Corruption in private business, distribution of raider attacks on enterprises 23. Corruption at the level of local self-government bodies E. Foreign and do- mestic policy 24. Delaying the peaceful settlement of military conflict 25. The presence of signs of growth of the negative image of the country 26. Lack of stability and transparency of government policy 27. Insufficient transparency of public disclosure 28. Concern over possible social unrest, in particular, related to the upcoming presidential and Verkhovna Rada elections А. Kolosov, К. Kolosova, О. Savchenko, S. Kucherenko 7 Економічний вісник Донбасу № 4(54), 2018 There has been some positive progress in business law and practice (field B), especially in terms of simpli- fying tax administration, reducing business regulation and systematic inspection, as well as reducing wages and salaries by introducing a reduced social tax rate (ECU) to 22%. The imperfection of the judicial system (sphere C) is partially overcome or remains the focus of state attention in the process of judicial reform in Ukraine. Obviously, the main obstacle to the inflow of foreign investment remains the presence of high general corruption in Ukraine (sphere D), not counting on the launch of a whole series of new anti-corruption institu- tions. Yet, hopes for improvements in this area are be- coming more realistic, in particular, due to the active in- terest of the international community and European in- stitutions that provide financial assistance to Ukraine, opening up the path to accession to NATO and the EU, depending on the degree Overcoming Corruption in Ukraine. Unfortunately, without positive dynamics, there are negative factors that shape the image of Ukraine in its foreign and domestic policy (sphere D). It is precisely the absence of distinct Ukrainian policy on the peaceful settlement of military conflict (factor 24) that entails other negative factors forming the negative image of Ukraine (factors 25 and 26). The negative impact is the lack of clear policy of unconditional adherence to the principles of democracy and the rule of law in the pro- cess of the presidential and parliamentary elections ex- pected in 2019 (factors 27 and 28). To determine the possible role of Donbas in the process of obtaining and mastering the investment pro- gram under the "Marshall Plan" for Ukraine, it should be borne in mind that holistic diversified Donbass com- plex before the beginning of the conflict played a lead- ing role in the Ukrainian economy. With only 8.8% of the territory and about 16% of Ukraine's population, it produced 25.0% of industrial and 8.0% of agricultural production in the country [12]. The development of a significant part of the funds under the "Marshall Plan" in the Donbass has certain advantages, which are given in Table 2. Table 2 Major Benefits of Donbass for Marshall Plan Implementation * Sphere of manifestation benefits Benefits of Donbass against the background of general indicators for Ukraine 1. Demography and the state of labor for invest- ment 1. Availability of free labor resources as a result of the termination of enterprises in the Donbas 2. High level of qualification of available labor resources for restoration of suspended and construction of new enterprises 3. High concentration of urban and rural population, which simplifies the distribution of new products for consumption, namely: - the average population density in the Donbass is 121 persons / km2 against 73 persons / km2 in Ukraine; - the share of Donbass population in Ukraine is about 15%, and the share of cities – 19% (89 out of 460) with the share of the Donbas area – 8.8% 2. Transport infrastruc- ture 1. Presence of traditional logistics of supply of raw materials, semi-finished products and products within the single industrial complex of Donbass, which was developed and improved by dozens of years 2. The maximum density of railways, the length of which is 13% of the Ukrainian Rail- way Enterprise common network? Donetsk railway performed 47% of loading and 36% of unloading works with a positive balance in favor of other regions of the country 3. The presence of a developed network of highways, efficient use which only needs to be restored and repaired 4. The presence of a powerful seaport in Mariupol 3. Power supply The presence of the most powerful TES, in particular Vuglegirskaya (3.6 million kW), Starobeshivska (about 2 million kW), Lugansk and Kurakhovskaya (1.5 million kW). For comparison, the power of the hydropower cascade on the Dnipro River totals 2.5 million kW 4. Synergy effect The possibility of multiplier effect from investments in the restoration of enterprises that launch whole chains in neighbor industries (coal – coke production – metallurgical production – freight transport, etc.) 5. Consumption market Extremely low security of the population by high-tech household goods, information technology, new types of communication, which promotes investment in their produc- tion for domestic consumption 6. Purchasing power of consumers The purchasing power of the region has a resource to increase in case of significant in- vestment in its economy, which will be promoted by the course of the country's leader- ship to increase the minimum and average wages, pension benefits * The table is compiled by the authors on the basis of statistical data. А. Kolosov, К. Kolosova, О. Savchenko, S. Kucherenko 8 Економічний вісник Донбасу № 4(54), 2018 Given the lack of yet fully predictable progress in the peaceful settlement of the conflict in the Donbas, the process of deploying the "Marshall Plan" is still to be considered as varied in the spirit of its reflection in Table 3. Table 3 Implementation of the Marshall Plan International Project for Ukraine depending on the stages of the peaceful settlement in Donbass Possible sequence of stages peaceful settlement of military conflict Possible implementation steps of international investment process for "Marshall Plan" for Ukraine 1. Preserving the current state of military con- flict 1. Restoration of the damaged production base of critical produc- tion in the controlled part of Donbass. 2. Improvement of the state of energy and transport infrastructure in the controlled part of Donbass 3. Creation of the necessary new chains of energy and transport infrastructure in the northern part of the Luhansk region, cut off from the common industrial complex of Donbass and Ukraine 2. Establishment of international mediation in the zone of military conflict Launching the restoration of production, energy and transport in- frastructure on the territory controlled by Ukrainian government 3. Initiation of the definition of the modalities of the political settlement of the conflict situa- tion and the restoration of economic coopera- tion Implementation of the design and preparatory stages of investing in the creation of new modern productions under the gen- eral "Marshall Plan" for Ukraine 4. Beginning of the processes of the political settlement of the conflict and reintegration of Donbas Creating new production facilities with elaboration of new prod- ucts under the "Marshall Plan" for Ukraine 5. Beginning of functioning of separate dis- tricts of Donetsk and Luhansk regions within the united political and economic space of Ukraine Implementation of the "Marshall Plan" for Ukraine in full for the intended period of investment In addition to the general socio-economic factors, the possibility of urgent investment under the "Marshall Plan" in Donbass is a complete picture of the specific directions of investment in a large number of enter- prises. Those, that are most important for cities and which have been monitored throughout the period of their functioning in the conditions of division of a pre- viously unified economic complex of Donbass. Table 4 shows a fragment of the actual directions of investment in the enterprises of the largest cities of Donbass only in the part of Donbas, which is currently controlled by Ukraine. As yet, we are not talking about a specific eco- nomic justification for the effectiveness of the expected investments, we will carry out an enlarged assessment of its possible results. 1. The volume of investments in the reconstruction of Donbas can be quite significant, only on the "Mar- shall Plan": $ 50 billion / 10 years = $ 5 billion a year. According to the "European Commission's plan" it is considered possible to attract up to 10 dollars of state guarantees for 1 dollar, therefore, it is possible to expect from 5 to 10 billion dollars annually, which is quite real, since on average Ukraine as a whole receives about 3 billion dollars of investments even without powerful international initiatives. 2. It can be expected that the introduction of invest- ments in the Donbas economy will not be traditional for the western regions of Ukraine, when they invest in the creation of virtually new enterprises for the production of consumer goods (division 2). Considering the readi- ness of the existing industrial enterprises of Donbas, whose level of loading does not exceed one third, to im- mediately introduce investments in increasing produc- tion volumes, it can be assumed that the structure of in- vestments can be 80-70% by 20-30%, according to the ratio of divisions 1 (production of means of production) and 2 (production of consumption). 3. The effectiveness of investments is largely de- pendent on the rate of consumption of newly created ad- ditional products. Obviously, an increase in industrial production will only partially cover the loss of industrial potential as a result of the economic blockade of Don- bas, which occurred in 2017, and will immediately enter the national industrial turnover, including the increase of Ukrainian exports. 4. With regard to new products in the form of con- sumer goods, it is possible to assess the prospects of its domestic consumption in the region, which would be- come a fuse for accelerating inflationary processes. Even with the annual investment of 2-3 billion dollars in the production of goods with a return on capital of at least 10%, we have an increase in consumption of US $ 200-300 million a year, with a third of US $ 70- 100 million in wage growth. Thus, on average, the in- habitant of the whole Donbas (6 million people) is: $ 70- 100 million dollars / 6 million people = $ 12-16 dollars of additional annual consumption, which is not in doubt. А. Kolosov, К. Kolosova, О. Savchenko, S. Kucherenko 9 Економічний вісник Донбасу № 4(54), 2018 Table 4 Actual directions of investment in the enterprises of the largest cities of Donbass (fragment) City, (population, thousand people), major industries Definition of problems Investment direction Donetsk region Mariupol (500), ferrous metal- lurgy, machine building, seaport The terrible environmental situation due to the emission of harmful sub- stances into the air Investing in environmental equipment The acute need to restore the full- fledged work of PJSC "Azovmash" Orders investment Kramatorsk (160), Slavyansk (116), Druzhkivka (60), machine building Low workload of enterprises Orders investment Kostantynivka (80), ferrous and nonferrous metallurgy Decline in production Investing in the revival of enterprises Pokrovsk (60), Dobropillya (30), coal industry Limited production capacity of mines Investing in the development of coal production Avdiyivka (35), coke industry Location of the infrastructure close to the front Investing in the development of the in- dustrial infrastructure of the coke plant Luhansk region Severodonetsk (108), chemical industry Low loading of PrJSC «Azot» Investing in increasing production Lisichansk (102), oil refining, machine building, glass produc- tion, coal industry Decline in production Investing in refurbishment of refineries, machinery, glass production Limited production capacity of mines Investing in the development of coal production Rubizhne (60), chemical and pharmaceutical industry Reduced production volumes Investing in the production of dyes, drugs and other chemical and pharmaceutical products for export Popasna (21), railroad, machine building Low production use Orders investment Kreminna (20), local industry The termination of the work of in- dustrial enterprises Investing in the restoration of industrial enterprises Svatovo (18), agricultural pro- cessing Insufficient raw material base Investing in entrepreneurship in agricul- ture Schastia (12), thermal power plant (TES) Low TES load, separation from the Unified Energy System of Ukraine Investing in material supplies, joining TES to the Unified Energy System of Ukraine Conclusions and suggestions. As defined in the article, the factors behind the implementation of the in- ternational "Marshall Plan" for Ukraine provide the ba- sis for further discussion of the status, content, objects, terms, amount of investment and economic feasibility of the proposed project for Donbas. The results of the con- sideration of the problem can focus on the leadership of Ukraine on the implementation of measures to eliminate the factors of negative impact on the investment attrac- tiveness of the country as the object of investment. At the same time, explaining the role of existing positive conditions for large-scale investment project taking place at present on the territory of Donbas controlled by Ukrainian government, and taking into account the new opportunities opened up as the process of peace settle- ment in Donbas is progressing and joining it to a com- mon economic complex of Ukraine. Literature 1. 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Проект Регіо- нальної цільової програми сприяння залученню інозе- мних інвестицій, розвитку міжнародного співробітни- цтва та формування позитивного іміджу Луганської області / Луганська обласна державна адміністрація. Обласна військово-цивільна адміністрація. 2018. URL: http://loga.gov.ua/ oda/press/news/dep_ved/proekt_ regio nalnoyi_cilovoyi_programi_spriyannya_zaluchennyu_ ino zemnih. 11. Кучеренко С. К. Типологія умов інвесту- вання в Україні. Вісник Дніпропетровського універси- тету. Серія «Економіка. 2016, № 10/1, т. 24. Вип.10 (2). С.121-129. 12. Відродження Донбасу: оцінка соці- ально-економічних втрат і пріоритетні напрями держа- вної політики / Національна академія наук України. Київ, 2015. References 1. Derzhstat pidrakhuvav obsiah inozemnykh investytsii v ekonomiku Ukrainy [State Statistics has esti- mated the amount of foreign investment in the economy of Ukraine]. (2017). UNIAN. Finances. www.unian.ua. 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Seriia «Ekonomika» – Bulletin of Dnipropetrovsk University. Series "Economics», 10/1, vol. 24, Iss.10 (2), рр. 121-129 [in Ukrainian]. 12. Vidrodzhennia Donbasu: otsinka sotsialno- ekonomichnykh vtrat i priorytetni napriamy derzhavnoi polityky [Revival of the Donbas: assessment of socio- economic losses and priority directions of state policy]. (2015). Natsionalna akademiia nauk Ukrainy – National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine. Kyiv [in Ukrainian]. Колосов А. М., Колосова К. А., Савченко О. С., Кучеренко С. К. «План Маршалла» для Дон- басу: передумови інвестиційного розвитку Визначено передумови відновлення й інвестицій- ного розвитку Донбасу згідно з міжнародним «Планом Маршалла» у разі мирного врегулювання збройного конфлікту. Показано суттєві переваги Донбасу як об’єкту запровадження «плану Маршалла», зокрема, у залежності від етапів мирного врегулювання в Дон- басі, а також напрямки інвестування підприємств най- більших міст Донбасу. Запропоновано укрупнену оцінку обсягів щорічних інвестицій, отримання додат- кової продукції, можливості її негайного споживання. Ключові слова: «план Маршалла», міжнародні ін- вестиції, Україна, інвестиційні переваги, економічне відродження Донбасу. Колосов А. Н., Колосова Е. А., Савченко А. С., Кучеренко С. К. «План Маршалла» для Дон- басса: предпосылки инвестиционного развития Определены предпосылки восстановления и ин- вестиционного развития Донбасса в соответствии с международным «Планом Маршалла» в случае мир- ного урегулирования вооруженного конфликта. Пока- заны существенные преимущества Донбасса как объ- екта осуществления «плана Маршалла», в частности, в зависимости от этапов мирного урегулирования в Дон- бассе, а также направления инвестирования предприя- тий крупнейших городов Донбасса. Предложена укрупненная оценка объемов ежегодных инвестиций, получения дополнительной продукции, возможности ее немедленного потребления. Ключевые слова: «план Маршалла», международ- ные инвестиции, Украина, инвестиционные преиму- щества, экономическое возрождение Донбасса. Kolosov A., Kolosova K., Savchenko O., Ku- cherenko S. «Marshall Plan» for Donbass: prerequi- sites for investment development The preconditions for restoration and investment de- velopment of Donbass according to the international "Mar- shall Plan" in case of peaceful settlement of armed conflict are determined. Significant advantages of Donbass as an object of the Marshall Plan implementation are shown, in particular, depending on the stages of the peaceful settle- ment in the Donbass, as well as the directions of investment of the enterprises of the largest cities of Donbas. The pro- posed estimation of volumes of annual investments, receipt of additional products, possibilities of its immediate con- sumption is offered. Keywords: "Marshall Plan", international investment, Ukraine, investment advantages, economic revival of Don- bas. Received by the editors: 23.11.2018 and final form 14.12.2018