Main tendencies of the global pharmaceutical market
Analysis of the global pharmaceutical market was conducted in the article as well as the main factors influencing its development, such as the research factor and the sickness rate of population. It was revealed that the market leaders are companies that have invested a significant amount of its fun...
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irk-123456789-1501532019-04-02T01:25:03Z Main tendencies of the global pharmaceutical market Shabalina, L. Khumran, R. International and Regional Economics Analysis of the global pharmaceutical market was conducted in the article as well as the main factors influencing its development, such as the research factor and the sickness rate of population. It was revealed that the market leaders are companies that have invested a significant amount of its funds in R&D. Accordingly, their drugs are more effective in treating the most common diseases, such as oncology. У статті проведено аналіз світового фармацевтичного ринку, визначено, що основними факторами, які на нього впливають, є науково-дослідна робота та захворюваності населення. Виявлено, що лідерами на фармацевтичному ринку є компанії, що вкладають значні кошти в розвиток НДДКР, внаслідок чого їх ліки є більш ефективними в лікуванні онкологічних захворювань. В статье проведен анализ мирового фармацевтического рынка, определено, что основными факторами, которые на него влияют, является научно-исследовательская работа и заболеваемости населения. Выявлено, что лидерами на фармацевтическом рынке являются компании, вкладывающие значительные средства в развитие НИОКР, вследствие чего их препараты являются более эффективными в лечении онкологических заболеваний. 2018 Article Main tendencies of the global pharmaceutical market / L. Shabalina, R. Khumran // Економічний вісник Донбасу. — 2018. — № 4 (54). — С. 73-78. — Бібліогр.: 7 назв. — англ. 1817-3772 http://dspace.nbuv.gov.ua/handle/123456789/150153 338:614.27 en Економічний вісник Донбасу Інститут економіки промисловості НАН України |
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International and Regional Economics International and Regional Economics Shabalina, L. Khumran, R. Main tendencies of the global pharmaceutical market Економічний вісник Донбасу |
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Analysis of the global pharmaceutical market was conducted in the article as well as the main factors influencing its development, such as the research factor and the sickness rate of population. It was revealed that the market leaders are companies that have invested a significant amount of its funds in R&D. Accordingly, their drugs are more effective in treating the most common diseases, such as oncology. |
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Shabalina, L. |
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Main tendencies of the global pharmaceutical market |
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Main tendencies of the global pharmaceutical market |
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Main tendencies of the global pharmaceutical market |
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Main tendencies of the global pharmaceutical market |
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Main tendencies of the global pharmaceutical market |
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main tendencies of the global pharmaceutical market |
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Інститут економіки промисловості НАН України |
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2018 |
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International and Regional Economics |
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Main tendencies of the global pharmaceutical market / L. Shabalina, R. Khumran // Економічний вісник Донбасу. — 2018. — № 4 (54). — С. 73-78. — Бібліогр.: 7 назв. — англ. |
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Економічний вісник Донбасу |
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AT shabalinal maintendenciesoftheglobalpharmaceuticalmarket AT khumranr maintendenciesoftheglobalpharmaceuticalmarket |
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2025-07-12T23:46:15Z |
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2025-07-12T23:46:15Z |
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1837486811012661248 |
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L. Shabalina, R. Khumran
73
Економічний вісник Донбасу № 4(54), 2018
UDC 338:614.27
L. Shabalina,
PhD (Economics),
ORCID 0000-0002-3621-6466,
R. Khumran,
Donetsk National Technical University
MAIN TENDENCIES OF THE GLOBAL PHARMACEUTICAL MARKET
The pharmaceutical market is a dynamically deve-
loping sector of the global economy. This is due to the
growing market capacity of drugs in the world and the
rapid expansion of the range of drugs. Therefore, despite
the general downturn in the global economy of recent
years, the pharmaceutical market continues to grow. The
study of the pharmaceutical market is relevant since its
capacity is increasing every year due to the fact that the
demand for drugs is increasing, especially in developed
countries because the aging population in these coun-
tries is increasing. According to the United Nations fore-
cast, by 2050, the world's population at the age over 60
years will reach 2.09 billion people. And the projected
life expectancy will be 82 years by 2050, which will lead
to an increase in the usage of drugs. Also, the pharma-
ceutical market is increasing due to the emerging econ-
omies of countries such as Latin America, Asia, Qatar,
Bahrain, Kuwait, the United Arab Emirates and others.
According to IMS Health, the capacity of the pharma-
ceutical market has increased by 2-6% per year in the
period between 2013-2017 by $205– 235 billion. Also,
the number of the world's leading pharmaceutical and
biotechnological companies was 4,800 in 2013, and in
2017 it grew to 6,500 companies [1]. Companies such
as Roche and Bristol-Myers Squibb are developing new
drugs with research and development (R&D) annually
to treat various types of diseases, such as oncology, dia-
betes, rheumatism, etc. with global sales of $25,026 and
$3,279 respectively. As a result, it is necessary to study
the main trends in the global pharmaceutical market
more thoroughly in order to identify important factors
affecting its development, such as R&D and sickness
rate.
Organizations such as the European Federation of
Pharmaceutical Industries and Associations (EFPIA),
Evaluate Pharma, The Business Research Company,
IQVIA Institute, International Federation of Pharma-
ceutical Manufacturers & Associations (FPMA),
PESTEL Analysis of Pharmaceutical industry etc. Are
studying the tendencies of the global pharmaceutical
market. Scientists such as Adriana Petryna, Arthur
Kleinman, Andrew Lackoff made a significant contribu-
tion to the study of problems connected with the global
pharmaceutical market in the book Global Pharmaceuti-
cals. The operating system of the pharmaceutical com-
panies was disclosed by Marshia Angela, Ray Moyni-
hen, Alan Cassels, Melody Petersen and others. The aim
of the work is to identify the main trends of the global
pharmaceutical market. The global pharmaceutical mar-
ket in 2017 was up to $934,8 billion and is estimated to
reach $1170 billion in 2021, an increase of 5,8%, ac-
cording to the latest report from the pharmaceutical mar-
ket research conducted by The Business Research Com-
pany [2]. Sales analysis of medicines for all continents
for the period of 20-13-2017. (Fig. 1) shows that the
largest sales volume in the North American market is
Fig.1. Drug sales in the World Pharmaceutical Market (2013-2017)
48%, which is due to geographical factors since 25 mil-
lion people in these countries suffer from diabetes and
80 million people are in the pre-diabetic stage. They also
suffer from cancer and hyperthermia, making the US
pharmaceutical market the most important market in the
world, together with Canada and Mexico, it represents
the largest continental pharmaceutical market. It is fol-
lowed by Europe with a share of 22%, which is associ-
48%
5%
22%
8%
17%
North America (USA,
Canada)
South America
Europe
Japan
Africa, Asia and Australia
L. Shabalina, R. Khumran
74
Економічний вісник Донбасу № 4(54), 2018
ated with the influx of migrants who brought with them
various diseases. Also, according to the World Health
Organization, in Europe, the spread of epidemic di-
seases is observed in 28 countries, with 76% of cases of
local transmission of infection. Africa followed with a
share of 17%, which is due to the fact that medicine is
paid in most African countries, and the standard of li-
ving is low. For example, in Africa, the average monthly
salary before taxes made up to $402 in 2016. Then
comes Japan with a share of 8%, and the Japanese nation
is ahead of all nations in terms of healthy life expectancy
worldwide. [3].
World sales of drugs for the period between 2013-
2017 (Table 1) indicates that the annual increase in pre-
scripted drugs for the period 2013-2017 increased by 19
times, due to the fact that the population is increasing
and the number of patients who visit doctors for treat-
ment of diseases that require receiving a prescription for
the use of a certain drug is growing. It should be men-
tioned that there are two types of dominant drugs – pa-
tented (original) and generic drugs. And also, there are
orphan drugs. Orphan drugs are pharmaceuticals deve-
loped for the treatment of rare diseases, which are called
orphan diseases. Sales of generic and orphan drugs are
growing steadily, as shown in the table. For the period
2013-2017. The global volume of generic drugs has
grown 15 times, indicating that the demand for generic
drugs is growing due to the cheapness of these drugs
compared to the original ones, and due to the ease of
their entry into the market. In addition, according to
IFPMA forecasts [4], by 2018, revenues from the sale of
generic drugs in the world will reach $666 – 668 billion
per year. Taking into account that the total volume of
the world market of medicines reached $1,31 trillion, to-
day generics occupy more than half of the market as a
whole. In some regions, this figure is higher – in South
America (61% of all spending on medicines) and Asian
countries (59%). Also, orphan drugs increased by 2
times. This is due to the fact that the number of patients
with rare diseases is growing.
Table 1
Worldwide Drug Sales
Worldwide Prescription Sales ($bn)
Year 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Prescription drugs 649 664 686 732 719 727 750 741 768 774
Patented (original) 535 547 556 587 568 567 579 562 574 567
Generic drugs 54 54 60 66 67 70 75 77 79 84
Orphan drugs 60 63 70 79 84 90 96 102 115 123
Prescription Generic & Or-
phan %
536 547 556 587 568 567 579 563 575 587
The main threat to the worldwide sales of drugs is
the forthcoming of the expiration of the patented (origi-
nal) drugs. This can create what, according to experts, is
called «patent cliff». The term Patent cliff explains the
phenomenon when, due to the expiration of a group of
drugs which occupy a high percentage of sales, sales in
the entire world market fall sharply. Usually this phe-
nomenon manifests itself when patents on «block-
busters» drugs end – «blockbusters» in pharmaceuticals
are drugs with sales of more than $1 billion a year. For
example, let us consider the worldwide sales volume,
which was under the threat of patent expiration for the
period 2008-2017 (Table 2). The data in the table indi-
cate that the period of the most demanded patented
drugs is coming to an end, which contributes to an in-
crease in the production of generic drugs, and this will
result in large losses from sales of original drugs. The
total sales volume at risk is fluctuating. For example, in
2008. The losses were estimated to be $18 billion, and
in 2017 This figure increased by 1,83 times. Therefore,
it can be said that if the total sales volume at risk of ex-
pected losses is inspected, then companies on average
lose between 3 to 7% per year [4].
Table 2
Worldwide sales at risk of patent expiration
Worldwide Prescription Sales ($bn)
Year 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Total sales at risk 18 24 29 34 52 31 48 52 52 33
Expected sales loss 12 12 13 20 37 24 20 15 14 23
Market at risk, % +3 +4 +4 +5 +7 +4 +4 +6 +7 +4
Analysis of the global pharmaceutical sales market
suggests that it is necessary to study the influence of the
main factors that affect it. The first factor affecting this
market is Research and Development, which is an im-
portant step in drug development in the pharmaceutical
industry. According to the annual report of the Evaluate
Pharma organization, currently pharmaceutical biotech-
nologies are replacing traditional technologies in drug
manufacturing, opening up new opportunities. Pharma-
ceutical biotechnology is a relatively new and growing
area in which the principles of biotechnology apply to
drug development. There is an increase in R&D expen-
ditures by pharmaceutical and biotech companies
L. Shabalina, R. Khumran
75
Економічний вісник Донбасу № 4(54), 2018
worldwide in 2017 compared with 2008 by 23% (Tab-
le 3) [4]. Also, there is an increase in R&D expenditure
on prescription drugs by 0,5% while non-prescription
drugs expenditures increased by 1,3%. This suggests
that there has been an increase in the size of the research
that is carried out to help cure various diseases, along
with the development and the introduction of new drugs
and technologies into clinical practice for the treatment
of diseases with steady growth tendencies, such as on-
cology, cardiovascular and infectious diseases.
Table 3
Worldwide R&D spend by pharma & biotech companies
Worldwide prescription sales ($bn)
Year 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Pharma R&D spend 128,3 126,5 128,4 136,3 135,5 137,8 143,2 148,0 156,7 157,5
R&D of worldwide
prescription sales, %
19,8 19,1 18,7 18,6 18,8 19,0 19,1 20,0 20,4 20,3
R&D of worldwide
prescription in ge-
neric, %
21,5 20,8 20,5 20,5 20,8 21,0 21,2 22,3 22,7 22,8
Biotech companies have much higher costs due to
the fact that they are focused on the extension of R&D
(as opposed to the production of pharmaceutical compa-
nies), as well as on the duration and complexity of test-
ing and creating new products. (Fig. 2) The top 20 global
pharmaceutical companies in R&D in pharmaceuticals
shows that the market is developing dynamically and
new leaders are emerging. For example, the company
Novartis ranked first in 2013. R&D expenditures with a
market share of 9,4%, whereas in 2017 its position de-
teriorated to the third place with a market share of 7,8%.
Second place in 2013 with a share of 8,30% is occupied
by Roche, as in 2017 it ranked first in R&D expenditures
with a market share of 9,2%. The third is Merck&Co.
with a market share of 7,10% in 2013 whereas in 2017
its position deteriorated to the fourth place with a market
share of 7,6% [4].
2013 2017
Fig.2. Top 15 Global Pharmaceutical Companies in R & D in Pharmaceutical Industry
in 2013 and in 2017, $bn
Analysis of the development of the pharmaceutical
market suggests that pharmaceutical companies and en-
terprises engaged in biotechnology play an active role in
forecasting analytics in order to identify the key patterns
and treatment methods designed to cure a specific pa-
tient segment. In 2017 compared with 2008, the use of
biotechnology increased by 9%. While traditional tech-
nologies for this period were reduced by 9% because
pharmaceutical companies typically use artificial mate-
rials to create drugs, while biotech companies use living
organisms or their products, such as bacteria or en-
zymes, to manufacture their medicines.
Table 4
Worldwide sales of prescription drugs by technology
Technology 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Biotechnology, % 17 17 18 18 20 22 23 24 25 26
Conventional, % 83 83 82 82 80 78 77 76 75 74
L. Shabalina, R. Khumran
76
Економічний вісник Донбасу № 4(54), 2018
The second major factor affecting this market is
sickness rate. World experience shows that the develop-
ing areas of therapy are oncology, Anti-rheumatics and
anti-virals. These areas significantly increase sales of
prescription drugs. (Table 5) analysis of worldwide
sales and global market share by areas of pharmaceuti-
cal therapy 2013 and 2017, suggests that oncology is the
fastest growing field of therapy in the pharmaceutical
industry with worldwide sales, which increased by 42%
in 2017 comparing with 2013. And with a global market
share of 2,9% in 2017 and continuing to grow due to the
fact that the life expectancy of population is increasing,
as well as due to the unhealthy lifestyle, smoking, un-
healthy diet, and drinking big amounts of alcohol. While
the sickness rate in hyperliqidaemics has decreased, and
sales have decreased by 5% respectively for the period
2013-2017.
Table 5
Analysis of worldwide sales and global market share by areas of therapy in 2013 and 2017.
Rank Areas of Therapy
Worldwide sales ($bn) Market share ($bn), %
2013 2017 2013 2017
1 Oncology 72,8 104,0 9,7 12,6
2 Anti-diabetics 38,4 46,1 5,1 5,6
3 Anti-rheumatics 44,9 55,7 6,0 6,8
4 Vaccines 25,6 27,7 3,4 3,4
5 Anti-virals 27,8 42,4 3,7 5,1
6 Immunosuppressants 7,9 13,7 1,1 1,7
7 Bronchodilators 32,6 27,2 4,3 3,3
8 Dermatologicals 13,5 12,9 1,8 1,6
9 Sensory Organs 17,5 21,6 2,3 2,6
10 Anti-hypertensives 33,7 23,0 4,5 2,8
11 Anti-coagulants 8,9 16,8 1,2 2,0
12 MS therapies 16,2 22,7 2,2 2,7
13 Anti-fibrinolytics 11,1 12,7 1,5 1,5
14 Anti-hyperliqidaemics 19,3 11,3 2,6 1,4
15 Anti-anaemics - 7,6 - 0,9
16 Top 15 385 445 51,0 54,0
17 Other 369 379 49,0 46,0
18 Total WW Prescription & OTC Sales 754 825 100,0 100,0
20 WW Generic Sales 68,5 80,7 9,1 9,8
21 OTC Pharmaceuticals 36,8 36,1 4,9 4,4
Analysis of the top 10 global pharmaceutical com-
panies selling drugs for the treatment of diseases in the
field of oncology (Table 6) indicates that in 2013 Roche
was the dominant company in the field of oncology with
a market share of 34,3%, the company retained its posi-
tion in 2017 with a market share of 26,4%. In second
place in 2013. comes Novartis with a market share of
10,8%, and in 2017 worsened it's position of taking fifth
place with a market share of 5,9%. The third place is
taken by Celgene in 2013 holds a market share of 8,7%,
retaining its position in 2017 with a market share of
8,2%. These companies occupy leading positions be-
cause they invest annually in R&D and in the develop-
ment of biotech drugs in the field of oncology.
Table 6
Top 10 global pharmaceutical companies selling drugs for the treatment of diseases
in the field of oncology in 2013 and 2017
Rank Company
Worldwide market
share, % Company
Worldwide Sales
($m)
2013 2017 2013 2017
1 Roche 34,3 26,4 Roche 25,026 27,453
2 Bristol-Myers Squibb 4,5 11,2 Celgene 3,279 11,649
3 Celgene 8,7 8,2 Bristol-Myers Squibb 6,336 8,520
4 Novartis 10,8 5,9 Johnson & Johnson 7,871 6,153
5 Pfizer 4,0 5,6 Pfizer 2,947 5,861
6 Johnson & Johnson 5,1 3,9 AstraZeneca 3,705 4,024
7 Astellas Pharma 1,0 4,0 Merck & Co 757 4,111
8 AstraZeneca 4,4 7,6 Novartis 3,193 7,884
9 Eli Lilly 3,9 3,0 AbbVie 2,875 3,090
10 Merck & Co 1,0 2,7 Astellas Pharma 752 2,847
Top 10 77,9 78,5 Top 10 56,741 81,592
Other 22,1 21,5 Other 16,123 22,396
Total Industry 100,1 100,0 Total Industry 72,864 103,988
L. Shabalina, R. Khumran
77
Економічний вісник Донбасу № 4(54), 2018
According to the World Health Organization [5] up
to 25% of cancer cases appeared in low- and middle-
income countries in 2015; this is due to cancer-causing
infections like hepatitis and human papillomavirus
(HPV). Also, the inaccessibility of cancer diagnosis and
treatment is a common problem, for example, in 2017,
only 26% of low-income countries had accessible me-
dical services, while 90% of high-income countries had
them. Studies of the global cancer sickness rate suggest
that Australians are diagnosed with cancer at a faster
rate than in any other country in the world (Fig. 3). For
example, for every 100,000 Australians, there are 743,8
new cases of cancer, followed by 532,9 in the United
States. It can be concluded that newer cases of cancer
appear in the richer countries, in most cases due to im-
proper lifestyle. Also, the most common type of cancer
found in Australia and America was skin cancer, fol-
lowed by the prostate for men, bowel cancer, malignant
skin melanoma, and breast cancer in women. Only one
of the five low- and middle-income countries has the
data needed to develop a protecting cancer policy.
Fig. 3. The proportion of the population suffering from cancer worldwide
Analysis of cancer types in 2016 (Fig. 4) suggests
that breast cancer is the most common case of cancer
and the leading cause of cancer death for women – 1,7
million incidents [6]. By 2030, scientists predict further
growth of this indicator to 9.9 million, of which 5,5 mil-
lion will suffer from incurable forms of cancer. Cases of
mortality prevail in poor and less developed countries,
with limited access to diagnostic and treatment re-
sources. The most common case of cancer for men is
prostate cancer – 1,4 million cases. Overall, the main
cause of cancer deaths was trachea, bronchus and lung
cancer – 1,2 million deaths [7].
Fig. 4. Number of people with cancer of different types worldwide in 2016
0
0,5
1
1,5
2
2,5
3
3,5
Africa Asia Australia Europe North America South America
1990 2016
Million
8,15
6,32
5,70
2,84
2,20 1,96 1,77 1,94 1,39
0,00
2,00
4,00
6,00
8,00
10,00
Breast cancer colon & rectum cancer
Prostate cancer Tracheal, bronchus, & lung cancer
Stomach cancer Uterine cancer
Bladder cancer Cervical cancer
Lip & oral cancer
Million
L. Shabalina, R. Khumran
78
Економічний вісник Донбасу № 4(54), 2018
Analysis of the global pharmaceutical market was
conducted in the article and the main influencing factors
on it were revealed which are the research factor and
sickness rate. Their interrelation has been revealed since
the most common diseases, such as oncology, requires
high-tech drugs that can be manufactured using R&D.
Therefore, leading companies in the pharmaceutical
market are those companies that invest in R&D because
these companies produce more effective drugs. Also, it
was found that drugs which cure cancer will be more in
demand, due to the increase in this area of diseases.
References
1. World preview 2017, outlook to 2022 Evaluate
Pharma [Online]. Available at: http://info.evaluate-
group.com/rs/607-YGS-364/images/WP17.pdf. 2. The
Business Research Company 2017 [Online]. Available at:
https://blog.marketresearch.com/the-growing-pharmaceu-
ticals - market - expert - forecasts - and - analysis.
3. European Federation of Pharmaceutical Industries and
Associations [Online]. Available at: https: //
www.efpia.eu/media/361960/efpia-pharmafigures2018 _
v07-hq.pdf. 4. World preview 2018, outlook to 2022
Evaluate Pharma [Online]. Available at: http://info.evalu-
ategroup.com/rs/607-YGS-364/images/WP2018.pdf.
5. World Health Organization Statistics 2018 [Online].
Available at: http://apps.who.int/iris/bitstream/handle/
10665/272596/9789241565585-eng.pdf. 6. Our World in
Data Statistics [Online]. Available at: https://our-
worldindata.org/cancer. 7. Our World in Data Statistics
[Online]. Available at: https://ourworldindata.org/how-
many-people-in-the-world-die-from-cancer.
Шабаліна Л. В., Хумран Р. В. Основні тен-
денції світового фармацевтичного ринку
У статті проведено аналіз світового фармацевтич-
ного ринку, визначено, що основними факторами, які
на нього впливають, є науково-дослідна робота та за-
хворюваності населення. Виявлено, що лідерами на
фармацевтичному ринку є компанії, що вкладають зна-
чні кошти в розвиток НДДКР, внаслідок чого їх ліки є
більш ефективними в лікуванні онкологічних захворю-
вань.
Ключові слова: світовий фармацевтичний ринок,
світові продажі, НДДКР, захворюваність, онкологія.
Шабалина Л. В., Хумран Р. В. Основные тен-
денции мирового фармацевтического рынка
В статье проведен анализ мирового фармацевти-
ческого рынка, определено, что основными факто-
рами, которые на него влияют, является научно-иссле-
довательская работа и заболеваемости населения. Вы-
явлено, что лидерами на фармацевтическом рынке яв-
ляются компании, вкладывающие значительные сред-
ства в развитие НИОКР, вследствие чего их препараты
являются более эффективными в лечении онкологиче-
ских заболеваний.
Ключевые слова: мировой фармацевтический ры-
нок, мировые продажи, НИОКР, заболеваемость, онко-
логия.
Shabalina L., Khumran R. Main tendencies of the
global pharmaceutical market
Analysis of the global pharmaceutical market was
conducted in the article as well as the main factors influ-
encing its development, such as the research factor and the
sickness rate of population. It was revealed that the market
leaders are companies that have invested a significant
amount of its funds in R&D. Accordingly, their drugs are
more effective in treating the most common diseases, such
as oncology.
Keywords: global pharmaceutical market, worldwide
sales, R & D, sickness rate, oncology.
Received by the editors: 26.11.2018
and final form 14.12.2018
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