Analysis of global gravitational precursors before some Asian strong earthquakes
The authors consider the gravitational precursors of Mega Earthquakes in Asia and Southeast Asia: Sichuan earthquake, M7.9, May 12, 2008; Andaman Islands earthquake, M7.5, August 10, 2009; Samoa Islands earthquake, M8.1, September 29, 2009; Northern Sumatra earthquake, M7.8, April 06,2010; Tohoku ea...
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irk-123456789-1585052019-09-05T01:25:43Z Analysis of global gravitational precursors before some Asian strong earthquakes Khalilov, E. Wang, L. Khalilova, L. The authors consider the gravitational precursors of Mega Earthquakes in Asia and Southeast Asia: Sichuan earthquake, M7.9, May 12, 2008; Andaman Islands earthquake, M7.5, August 10, 2009; Samoa Islands earthquake, M8.1, September 29, 2009; Northern Sumatra earthquake, M7.8, April 06,2010; Tohoku earthquake, M9, March 11, 2011. All gravitational precursors were recorded using of ATROPATENA earthquake prediction stations. Рассмотрены гравитационные предшественники мегаземлетрясения в Азии и Юго-Восточной Азии: Сычуань, M7.9, 12 мая 2008 г .; Андаманские острова, M7.5 10 августа 2009 г .; острова Самоа, M8.1, 29 сентября 2009 г .; Северная Суматра, M7.8, 06 апреля 2010 г .; Тохоку, M9, 11 марта 2011 Все гравитационные предшественники были записаны с использованием станций прогнозирования землетрясений ATROPATENA. Предложено создание международной системы прогнозирования землетрясений на полученных результатов. Для мониторинга пространственно-временных вариаций гравитационного поля разработаны и изготовлены специальные детекторы - станци ATROPATENA. Розглянуто гравітаційні попередники мегаземлетрусів в Азії та Південно-Східній Азії: Сичуань, M7.9, 12 травня 2008 р.; Андаманські острови, M7.5, 10 серпня 2009 р.; острови Самоа, M8.1, 29 вересня 2009 р.; Північна Суматра, M7.8, 06 квітня 2010 р.; Тохоку, M9, 11 березня 2011 р. Усі гравітаційні попередники були записані з використанням станцій прогнозування землетрусів ATROPATENA. 2019 Article Analysis of global gravitational precursors before some Asian strong earthquakes / E. Khalilov, L. Wang, L. Khalilova // Геофизический журнал. — 2019. — Т. 41, № 2. — С. 141-155. — Бібліогр.: 18 назв. — англ. 0203-3100 DOI: 10.24028/gzh.0203-3100.v41i2.2019.164462 http://dspace.nbuv.gov.ua/handle/123456789/158505 en Геофизический журнал Інститут геофізики ім. С.I. Субботіна НАН України |
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The authors consider the gravitational precursors of Mega Earthquakes in Asia and Southeast Asia: Sichuan earthquake, M7.9, May 12, 2008; Andaman Islands earthquake, M7.5, August 10, 2009; Samoa Islands earthquake, M8.1, September 29, 2009; Northern Sumatra earthquake, M7.8, April 06,2010; Tohoku earthquake, M9, March 11, 2011. All gravitational precursors were recorded using of ATROPATENA earthquake prediction stations. |
| format |
Article |
| author |
Khalilov, E. Wang, L. Khalilova, L. |
| spellingShingle |
Khalilov, E. Wang, L. Khalilova, L. Analysis of global gravitational precursors before some Asian strong earthquakes Геофизический журнал |
| author_facet |
Khalilov, E. Wang, L. Khalilova, L. |
| author_sort |
Khalilov, E. |
| title |
Analysis of global gravitational precursors before some Asian strong earthquakes |
| title_short |
Analysis of global gravitational precursors before some Asian strong earthquakes |
| title_full |
Analysis of global gravitational precursors before some Asian strong earthquakes |
| title_fullStr |
Analysis of global gravitational precursors before some Asian strong earthquakes |
| title_full_unstemmed |
Analysis of global gravitational precursors before some Asian strong earthquakes |
| title_sort |
analysis of global gravitational precursors before some asian strong earthquakes |
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Інститут геофізики ім. С.I. Субботіна НАН України |
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2019 |
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http://dspace.nbuv.gov.ua/handle/123456789/158505 |
| citation_txt |
Analysis of global gravitational precursors before some Asian strong earthquakes / E. Khalilov, L. Wang, L. Khalilova // Геофизический журнал. — 2019. — Т. 41, № 2. — С. 141-155. — Бібліогр.: 18 назв. — англ. |
| series |
Геофизический журнал |
| work_keys_str_mv |
AT khalilove analysisofglobalgravitationalprecursorsbeforesomeasianstrongearthquakes AT wangl analysisofglobalgravitationalprecursorsbeforesomeasianstrongearthquakes AT khaliloval analysisofglobalgravitationalprecursorsbeforesomeasianstrongearthquakes |
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| fulltext |
ANALYSIS OF GLOBAL GRAVITATIONAL PRECURSORS BEFORE SOME ASIAN ...
Геофизический журнал № 2, Т. 41, 2019 141
Introduction. During the whole history of
humanity the people have been trying to learn
the possible natural cataclysms beforehand.
It is mentioned in ancient historical sources,
legends, myths and in religious writings. For
this purpose they used all accessible for them
opportunities in accordance with their level
of knowledge and philosophy. They tried to
use astronomical phenomena and they as-
sociated the natural cataclysms with them.
For example, ancient people take the solar
eclipses, approaches of the Mars to the Earth,
appearance of spots on the Sun, unusual be-
havior of animals and unusual phenomena in
DOI: 10.24028/gzh.0203-3100.v41i2.2019.164462
Analysis of global gravitational precursors before
some Asian strong earthquakes
E. Khalilov1, L. Wang2, L. Khalilova3, 2019
1Global Network for the Forecasting of Earthquakes, Baku, Azerbaijan
2Lanzhou Institute of Seismology, China Earthquake Administration, Lanzhou, China
3Azerbaijan State Oil and Industry University, Baku, Azerbaijan
Received 13 December 2018
Розглянуто гравітаційні попередники мегаземлетрусів в Азії та Південно-Східній
Азії: Сичуань, M7.9, 12 травня 2008 р.; Андаманські острови, M7.5, 10 серпня 2009 р.;
острови Самоа, M8.1, 29 вересня 2009 р.; Північна Суматра, M7.8, 06 квітня 2010 р.;
Тохоку, M9, 11 березня 2011 р. Усі гравітаційні попередники були записані з вико-
ристанням станцій прогнозування землетрусів ATROPATENA. Запропоновано ство-
рення міжнародної системи прогнозування землетрусів на отриманих результатів.
Для моніторингу просторово-часових варіацій гравітаційного поля розроблено та
виготовлено спеціальні детектори — станці ATROPATENA. Детектори безперервно
вимірюють величину гравітаційної сталої G у взаємно перпендикулярних напрямках
і відносні значення сили тяжіння Δg. До і після мегаземлетрусів в Азії та Південно-
Східній Азії виявлено зміни гравітаційного поля Землі на великих відстанях від епі-
центру (близько 8000 км); їх виміряли станції ATROPATENA у Баку (Азербайджан)
та Джокьякарта (Індонезія). На показники балансу Кавендиша при вимірюванні
гравітаційної сталої G впливають просторово-часові зміни зовнішніх гравітаційних
полів геологічного походження, які з часом змінюють ознаки справжніх значень
G. Вимірювання справжнього значення гравітаційної сталої G на поверхні Землі з
точністю, що перевищує другу цифру після десяткової крапки, неможливе через
просторово-часові варіації гравітаційного поля під впливом геодинамічних процесів.
Уперше ідентифіковано справжню причину коливань записаних значень граві-
таційної сталої G. Ці варіації були предметом наукових дискусій протягом усього
минулого століття.
Ключові слова: прогнозування землетрусів, гравітаційні попередники, тектонічні
хвилі, станція ATROPATENA, сейсмологія, геодинаміка, геотектоніка.
atmosphere as special signs of approaching
of the catastrophe.
How far have the modern scientists gone
from their predecessors? If we try to make
parallels, we’ll see that the modern science
with more interest studies the influence of
planets of solar system, solar activity and
other cosmic factors on seismicity and volca-
nism. Meanwhile, for short-term forecasting
the earthquakes different precursors of earth-
quakes are also used (as earlier). The main
difference is in explanations of the mecha-
nism of connection between the observed
precursors and the process of preparation of
E. KHALILOV, L. WANG, L. KHALILOVA
142 Геофизический журнал № 2, Т. 41, 2019
the earthquake. Another main difference is
the application of modern recording equip-
ment, which use high tech. In other respects
«philosophy» of forecasting the earthquakes
practically hasn’t been changed.
Short-term forecasting of earthquakes:
pros and cons. The scientific researches,
aimed at creation of effective technology of
forecasting the earthquakes were financed
about 100 years in many developed coun-
tries of the world. Disappointment of pub-
lic officers and wide mass of the population
because of absence of serious achievements
in this sphere can be understood. Seismolo-
gists, who forecast the earthquakes and spent
milliards of dollars in the whole world, found
themselves in difficult and delicate situation.
Most of them were looking for justifications
of their scientific failures, and gladly found
them during international scientific meeting
which was called in London on 7―8 Novem-
ber 1996 on the subject of interrelation of
earthquakes with other phenomena in order
to forecast them. Transactions of this meeting
were published in [Geller, 1997].
During this authoritative forum the famous
seismologist Dr. Robert J. Geller declared the
impossibility in principle of forecasting the
earthquakes. His main idea is that the process
of preparation of the earthquake source has a
big probability of randomness and influence
of many external factors. That is why he con-
siders this process as a maximally approxi-
mate to chaotic processes. Many further ar-
ticles and speeches of Dr. Robert Geller were
the continuation of his idea about impossibil-
ity of forecasting the earthquakes. This idea is
reflected in his basic statement: «Research in
the sphere of forecasting the earthquakes have
been carrying out more than 100 years with-
out evident success. The results of researches
didn’t allow receiving the great achievements.
The extensive researching was not able to find
reliable precursors. Our theoretic work sup-
poses that break displacement is nonlinear
process, which is very sensitive to unknown
details of structure of the Earth in bulk, and
not only in immediate proximity to the epi-
center. «The reliable accordance of alarms
about unavoidable strong earthquakes is in-
efficient and impossible» [Geller et al., 1997].
Registration of different precursors in big
distances from epicenters
Now there is known more than 300 pre-
cursors of earthquakes of different character
and origin. During the last years a number of
scientists published the results of research-
es, indicative of possibility of registration of
strong earthquakes precursors in the distance
of more than 5000 km, and in some cases more
than 10 000 km [Petrova et al., 2005; Hasanov,
Keramova, 2006; Khain, Khalilov, 2006; Kopi-
lova et al., 2007; Lyubushin, 2008; Sobolev et
al., 2008; Khalilov et al., 2011].
Seismic-gravitational precursors. So, as
a result of researches, carried out by the de-
partment of physics of the Earth of Peters-
burg’s State University, seismic-gravimetric
complex in Petersburg has registered the
long-term tensile deformation (vertically)
with duration of 12 days and nights, which
forestalled the cycle of strong earthquakes
of December 2004, including the strongest
earthquake on the north of Sumatra island
on 26.01.2004, which caused the catastroph-
ic tsunami. Before each strong earthquake
there were registered the deformations of less
continuation (1―2 days and nights), which
were observed earlier too. There was also
noted the increasing of intensity of seismic-
gravitational fluctuations, which accompany
these deformations, the beginning of which
always advanced the moment of breaks of
strong earthquakes for 1― days and nights.
At that, the first estimates of speed and length
of waves: low-speed waves (speed from 0,35
to 0,68 km/s) of seismic origin had long from
1520 to 7310 km. As a result of analysis of
the received data the scientists came to the
conclusion that the observed fluctuations are
connected with the deformational processes,
which are taking place inside the continent
with the complex block-hierarchical structure
[Kopilova et al., 2007].
Tideless variations of gravity. So, from
2002 the Scientific-Research Institute of
forecasting and studying the earthquakes
(Baku) has been carried out the continuous
measurement of tideless variations of gravity
in the station «Binagadi», which is located in
ANALYSIS OF GLOBAL GRAVITATIONAL PRECURSORS BEFORE SOME ASIAN ...
Геофизический журнал № 2, Т. 41, 2019 143
Absheron peninsula 24 km from Baku. The
measurements were carried out simultane-
ously by four high-precision quartz gravime-
ters of KV and KS types. As a result of mea-
surements and interpretation of the received
data, there were found out the gravitational
signals in variations of gravity, which preced-
ed the strong earthquakes, the epicenters of
which are in big distances (in the radius of
two thousand to ten thousands km) from the
registered stations. In the process of inter-
pretations of results of researches there were
deducted the gravitational effects from lunar
and solar tides. As it is known, the solar tides
cause the variations of gravity which do not
exceed 0,1 mGal, and the amplitude of lu-
nar variations is about 0,2 mGal. Changes of
tideless variations of gravity were registered
before strong earthquakes in Indonesia, Pak-
istan, Japan, Taiwan, India, the Philippines
and Iran.
Statistic data show that the gravitational
signals were registered more than in 85 % cas-
es, on the average, 5―10 days before strong
earthquakes [Khain, Khalilov, 2006].
Classification of the considered «long-
range»precursors. So, the carried out brief
review allowed marking out a few precursors
of earthquakes, which appear in big distances
between registering points and epicenters of
earthquakes:
– seismic-gravitational anomalies [Petrova
et al., 2005];
– tideless variations of gravity [Khain,
Khalilov, 2006];
– changes of hydro-geo-chemical mode
[Hasanov, Keramova, 2006];
– changes of the level of ground waters
[Ludwin, 2001];
– synchronization of micro-seismic noise
[Lyubushin, 2008; Sobolev et al., 2008];
– long-period three-dimensional variations
of gravitational field [Khalilov et al., 2011].
We didn’t review some other precursors,
which also display in big remoteness from
epicenters of strong earthquakes (variations
of different parameters of ionosphere, electro-
magnetic noise disturbances, electric, mag-
netic and other precursors).
Methodology. A new instrument for ex-
perimental study of the space-time variations
of measured values of G was created, called
the ATROPATENA detector [Khalilov, 2013].
ATROPATENA is a system of sensors
closed and isolated from the environment,
using the physical principle of the Cavendish
balance, with small weights on the ends of two
(instead of one) mutually perpendicular bal-
ance-beams hung by threads 2. Between the
small weights and large weights are placed
equally spaced 3, Fig. 1, a.
The third measuring sensor, the trial mass
4, is hung on a special elastic lever and makes
available the possibility of vertical displace-
ments during changes in the relative values
of acceleration of gravity, Δg. Variations of
Δg are stipulated for luni-solar floods and for
the appearance of local gravitational anoma-
lies, which can be caused by the changing
of density of rock mass under the instrument
as a result of changes in their stress condi-
tion, and consequently their mass. As seen in
the scheme, on the balance-beams with the
weights 2 and on the lever of the vertical sen-
sor 4, there are tiny mirrors on which three
laser beams are directed. Being reflected from
the mirrors, the beams hit the sensitive opti-
cal matrix 6 and 7, where the transformation
of optical signal from laser mark into electric
signals and their transmission into an analog-
to-digital converter occurs. After that, the dig-
ital signal is transmitted to a special block of
the computer as the next record in a special
format. The software, written at the Scientific-
Research Institute of Forecasting and Study-
ing of Earthquakes (SRIFSE), automatically
records the information in the form of sepa-
rate files for a period of time determined by
the operator.
The entire sensitive system is placed into
the special, isolated from the environment,
glass body 1, where a deep vacuum has
been created and is constantly supported
(10−4 MPa). Temperature sensors accurate to
0,1 °C are placed in different sections of the
sensitive system and connected to the tem-
perature control block. For excluding the me-
chanical effects and for better heat insulation,
the vacuum body with the sensitive system
is placed into translucent plastic body which
E. KHALILOV, L. WANG, L. KHALILOVA
144 Геофизический журнал № 2, Т. 41, 2019
also allows to observe the work of the system
visually Fig. 1, b.
Together with the noted sensors, ATRO-
PATENA is also provided with a digital seis-
mic station using a three-component seis-
mic receiver, the information of which is also
transmitted to the computer and is continu-
ously recorded in three channels X, Y, and Z
digitally.
The registration of seismic fluctuations is
necessary in order to exclude the possible
influence of these fluctuations on destabili-
zation of the sensitive system of the ATRO-
PATENA detector and the appearance of false
anomalies caused by seismic processes. The
remote control of the detector and remote
pickup of information minimize the external
influences on the sensitive system.
All elements of the sensitive system have
been made of non-metallic materials to ex-
clude the influence of magnetic fields and
electromagnetic radiation on these elements.
ATROPATENA stations is placed in: the
building of the Scientific Research Institute
of Forecasting and Studying of Earthquakes
in Baku (Azerbaijan); Building of Governor
of Yogyakarta (Indonesia); Center for Earth-
quakes Study, Islamabad (Pakistan); SETAC
Ltd. Istanbul; Institute Geophysics of National
Academy of Sciences of Ukraine, Kiev. Since
1 April 2007 the first station ATROPA TENA
has been in operation, and has recorded
high-quality information about variations of
the gravitational field over time in three axes
X, Y, and Z, and the seismologic information
simultaneously recorded by means of the
Tethys-SD wide-band digital seismic station.
First, ATROPATENA station was provided for
experimental research on the possible influ-
ence of tectonic waves on indications of the
Cavendish balance.
However, this detector does not measure
changes in the gravitational constant G but
rather deviations of the Cavendish balance’s
indications, being influenced by altered ex-
ternal masses of geological origin. It should
be taken into account that astronomical mass-
es such as luni-solar tides affect indications
of the Cavendish balance as well. But this in-
fluence is very weak and is reflected in the
gravitational constant values in the fifth and
sixth digits after the decimal point [Khalilov,
2004].
ATROPATENA station’s measuring pa-
rameters. The ATROPATENA station mea-
sures the ΔG index which is the difference
Fig. 1. The ATROPATENA station is shown schematically (a); photo of ATROPATENA CRYSTAL Kh11 Station in
Baku (Azerbaijan) (b): 1 ― glass body of the detector; 2 ― balance-beams with small weights on the ends; 3 ―
big weights; 4 ― trial weight hung on elastic lever; 5 ― laser emitters; 6 ― sensitive optical matrix for horizontal
sensors; 7 ― sensitive optical matrix for vertical sensor.
ANALYSIS OF GLOBAL GRAVITATIONAL PRECURSORS BEFORE SOME ASIAN ...
Геофизический журнал № 2, Т. 41, 2019 145
between the gravitational constant G (initially
measured G value) and measured values of
the Cavendish balance at the measurement
time GF:
ΔG = G–GF. (1)
The ATROPATENA-AZ station (Baku,
Azerbaijan) was used to register gravity
anomalies before strong earthquakes, namely
in Japan on 7 May 2008 and Sichuan, China
on 07, 12, 13 and 17 May 2008 and other earth-
quakes [Khalilov, 2009a,b, 2013; Khalilov et
al., 2011]. Since only relative changes of the
gravitational field reflecting deviations from
the initially measured G value are impor-
tant for researchers, a conventional index of
variations of the gravitational field ΔG was
taken as a basis for registration and subse-
quent analysis. To convert the ΔG index into
a gravitational constant G measuring unit,
the recorded ΔG index should be accepted
at the first approximation as the G value start-
ing from the second digit after the decimal
point. According to CODATA (https://www.
nist.gov/sites/default/files/documents/pml/
div684/fcdc/Motivation.pdf) as of April 2011,
the value of the gravitational constant G is
6,674 28×10−11 m3 kg−1s−2, standard uncer-
tainty 0,00067×10−11 m3kg−1s−2, relative stan-
dard uncertainty 1,0×10−4, concise form 6,674
28(67)·10−11 m3kg−1s−2. So, only two digits after
the decimal point remain unchanged in the
measured value of the gravitational constant
G; from the third digit on, the ATROPATENA
stations register periodical spatio-temporal
variations that depend on the location of the
recording device and its spatial orientation:
GF = 6,67(±ΔG)·10−11 m3kgs−2, (2)
where GF is the actually measured value of
the gravitational constant at the measure-
ment time.
Researches have found that ΔG records
obtained using the mutually perpendicular
Cavendish balance are not always synchro-
nized and often lack a pronounced correla-
tion [Khalilov et al., 2011]. This fact can also
be observed from the records of all the sta-
tions before and after the disastrous Japanese
earthquake of March 11, 2011. Along with
measuring AG, the ATROPATENA stations
simultaneously register variations in time of
relative values of gravity Ag, using a microgra-
vimeter installed inside the vacuum tank. Δg
values arc also measured in arbitrary units to
facilitate research. If necessary, the measured
Ag values can be converted to mGal. Among
the participant of the experiments and their
analysis were organizations: Global Network
for the Forecasting of Earthquakes (GNFE,
London, UK, www.seismonet.com), Scientific
Research Institute for the Forecasting and
Studying of Earthquakes (Baku, Azerbaijan)
and Lanzhou Institute of Seismology (Lan-
zhou, Gansu, China).
Measurement results. From 2008 to 2013
the ATROPATENA earthquake forecasting
stations of the Global Network for the Fore-
casting the Earthquakes (GNFE) recorded
the gravitational precursors of earthquakes
before all major earthquakes in Europe, Asia
and Southeast Asia. Let us consider the most
interesting and characteristic records of
gravitational precursors of earthquakes and
gravitational effects before, during and after
strong earthquakes that were registered by
ATROPATENA-ID stations (located in Yog-
yakarta, Indonesia) and ATROPATENA-AZ
(located in Baku, Azerbaijan). Hereinafter we
will call the records of ATROPATENA stations
«the gravitograms».
Let us consider the gravitogram records for
the following strong earthquakes: 1) Tohoku,
March 11, 2011, M9.0; 2) Sumatra, April 06,
M7.8, 2010; 3) Samoa, September 29, 2009,
M8.1; 4) Andaman, August 10, 2009, M7.5;
5) Sichuan, May 12, 2008, M7.9.
Analysis of gravitogram of the earthquake
Tohoku, March 11, 2011, M9.0. We have con-
sidered the recording of gravitogram of the
earthquake in Tohoku, March 11, 2011, M9.0
(Fig. 2, a, f) made by the ATROPATENA-ID sta-
tion. The distance between the epicenter and
the ATROPATENA-ID station was 5,950 km.
Table 1 shows the parameters of a strong
earthquake in Tohoku, as well as foreshocks
and aftershocks.
Fig. 2 shows maps of the epicentre zones
of the earthquakes under consideration (a―e)
and gravitograms of these earthquakes (f―j).
E. KHALILOV, L. WANG, L. KHALILOVA
146 Геофизический журнал № 2, Т. 41, 2019
Fig. 2. Maps of the epicentre zone of the earthquakes in: Tohoku, March 11, 2011, M9.0 (a); Sumatra, April 06, 2010,
M7.8 (b); Samoa, September 29, 2009, M8.1 (c); Andaman, August 10, 2009, M7.5 (d); Sichuan, May 12, 2008, M7.9
(e). Recording of gravitogram of ATROPATENA-ID (in Indonesia) station before, during and after earthquakes:
Tohoku (f); Sumatra (g); Samoa (h); Andaman (i); recording of gravitograms of ATROPATENA-AZ (in Azerbaijan)
station before, during and after Sichuan earthquake (j). ΔG — index which is the difference between the gravita-
tional constant G (initially measured G value) and measured values of the Cavendish balance. The ΔG-index values
correspond to the value G starting from the third decimal place; 1, 2, 3... — numbers of gravitational precursors;
1’, 2’, 3’ — secondary gravitational anomalies. Moments of earthquakes are designated by the circlets.
ANALYSIS OF GLOBAL GRAVITATIONAL PRECURSORS BEFORE SOME ASIAN ...
Геофизический журнал № 2, Т. 41, 2019 147
It should be noted that the gravitograms f―i
have been recorded by the ATROPATENA-
ID station, and the gravitogram j has been
recorded by the ATROPATENA-AZ station.
On the gravitogram (Fig. 2, f) it is clear that
before the indicated series of earthquakes
three gravitational anomalies were registered.
The first and the second ones on March 7
at 17:15 and at 21:57; the third anomaly on
March 8 at 11:36. Then, the ΔG value is re-
duced by 55 units and remains unchanged
until March 12, 20:33, after which it is in-
creased by 60 units. Thus, approximately 15
hours after the moment of decreasing of ΔG,
there occurs a strong foreshock on March 09,
2011 at 02:45UTC. Then on March 11, 2011 at
05:46 UTC there occurs a strong earthquake
with M9.0 and 29 minutes later the second
strong earthquake (aftershock) with M7.9
occurs. The last strong aftershock occurs on
March 22, 2011 at 07:18UTC. Thus, if we do
not consider the weak foreshocks and after-
shocks, four strong tremors occur in the epi-
centre zone.
Meanwhile, as it can be seen on the gravi-
togram, the gravitational anomalies of 1, 2, 3
were recorded before first three earthquakes.
Then we see a decrease in the value and a
straight line from 8 to 12 March, after which
three nearby anomalies were registered
again: 1’, 2’ and 3’. Thus, we can assume that
the anomalies 1, 2, 3 are the precursors of
earthquakes, and the anomalies 1’, 2’ and 3’
are secondary and were formed as a result
of the release of powerful tectonic energy
from three strong earthquakes. Between the
primary and secondary anomalies, a straight
line has been registered, which persists for
four days. On March 18, another very in-
tense gravitational anomaly 4 is recorded,
after which the value of ΔG is increased by
60 units and remains unchanged until March
22. At the moment of the end of the straight
line and the beginning of the next gravita-
tional anomaly, the fourth strong shock takes
place, after which, about five hours later, an
intense negative anomaly 4’ was recorded.
Thus, gravitational anomaly 4 is a precursor
of earthquake 4, and gravitational anomaly
4’ is a secondary anomaly from earthquake 4.
We see that again between the primary and
secondary anomalies a straight line is regis-
tered, which persists for four days.
Analysis of the gravitogram of the earth-
quake Sumatra, April 06, 2010. The record-
ings of gravitogram before, during and after
Sumatra earthquake was done by the ATRO-
PATENA-ID station (Fig. 2, b, g). The record
shows that a straight line was recorded from
March 19 to March 29, and since March 29
the station had registered an increase of ΔG
by 135 units, after which four intense impuls-
es are registered until 04 March, then again a
direct line is observed until March 09, 22:32.
Then, on April 10, we observe a sharp
negative impulse ΔG with a decrease by 65
units after which ΔG is restored to its previous
level and immediately afterwards a positive
impulse was registered with an increase of ΔG
by 40 units. Then the value returns to its previ-
ous position and from April 10 a direct line is
registered again until the end of observations
on April 23, 2010.
A strong earthquake M7.8 occurred on
April 06 during the recording of a straight
line. Thus, we believe that gravitational anom-
alous impulses 1―4 are the precursors of the
strong Sumatra earthquake, and we take the
most intense impulse 3 as the precursor of the
main shock, and the ΔG impulses 1, 2 and 4
are precursors of two foreshocks and after-
shock. At the same time, the impulses 1’ and
2’ are secondary impulses. As in the previ-
ous case, a straight line is recorded between
Ta b l e 1. Earthquakes parameters in Japan from
09 to 22 March 2011
No Date, time
(UTC) Location Depth,
km
Magni-
tude
1 March 09, 2011
02:45:20
38.440°N,
142.840°E 32 7.3
2 March 11, 2011
05:46:24 UTC
38.297°N,
142.372°E 30 9.0
3 March 11, 2011
06:15:40 UTC
36.281°N,
141.111°E 42 7.9
4 March 22, 2011
07:18:47 UTC
37.249°N,
143.956°E 26.5 6.6
E. KHALILOV, L. WANG, L. KHALILOVA
148 Геофизический журнал № 2, Т. 41, 2019
gravitational precursors of earthquake and
secondary impulses within 5 days.
Analysis of gravitogram of the earthquake
Samoa, September 29, 2009, M8.1. The re-
cording of gravitograms before, during and
after Samoa earthquake was done by the
ATROPATENA-ID station (Fig. 2, c, h). The
record shows that from September 7 to Sep-
tember 10, 2009 a direct line was recorded
and starting from September 10 the station
registered an increase of ΔG by 20 units, after
which a direct line is registered again until
September 12, 17:30, after which five intensive
anomalies ΔG were registered.
Beginning from September 15, 22:17, a di-
rect line is registered until October 1, 2009.
Meanwhile, on September 29, there occurs
a strong earthquake with M8.1, after which
since October, 1 five anomalous impulses ΔG
1’―5’ are successively recorded.
We see that, in amplitude the impulses
1―5 roughly correspond to the impulses
1’―5’, while impulses 3 and 3’ are the most
intense and have the same amplitude of
about 85 units. In our opinion, impulse 3 is
a precursor of an earthquake, and the im-
pulse 3’ is a secondary impulse as a result
of the isolation of tectonic energy during
the earthquake. In this case, impulses 1, 2,
4 and 5 are precursors of two foreshocks and
two aftershocks, and the impulses 1’, 2’, 4’
and 5’ are secondary impulses release of two
foreshocks and two aftershocks. As in the
previous gravitogram records, we had been
observing a direct line between the prima-
ry and secondary impulses ΔG for 15 days.
Then the value of ΔG again increased by 50
units and remained unchanged from 10 to
13 August, after which two intense negative
impulses ΔG were recorded, the latter with a
decrease by 72 units.
Analysis of the gravitogram of the earth-
quake Andaman, August 10, 2009, M7.5. The
gravitogram recording before, during and
after Andaman earthquake was done by the
ATROPATENA-ID station (Fig. 2, d, i). The
record shows that from 01 to 06 August 2009
a direct line was recorded, and starting from
August 6 the station registered four intensive
anomalies ΔG.
On August 08 at 21:37 the ΔG value was
reduced by 65 units and remained at this
level with minor variations until August 9,
10:32, after which it rises by 35 units. On Au-
gust 09, from 22:05 to 00:00 the ΔG impulse
was registered with an increase in the level
by 23 units, after which the value returned to
its previous position. During this impulse, a
strong earthquake occurs on August 10 with
M7.5.
Thus, we assume that the most intense
anomaly 2 on Fig. 2, i, is the precursor of the
main shock. Anomalies 1, 3 and 4 are pre-
cursors of weak foreshocks and aftershocks.
Anomalies 1’ and 2’ ΔG in Fig. 2, i are secon-
dary and appeared as a result of the released
tectonic energy during the earthquake and
aftershock. As in the previous cases, the direct
line was also registered between the primary
and secondary anomalies from 10 to 13 August.
Analysis of gravitogram of the Sichuan
earthquake, May 12, 2008, M7.9. Recor ding
the gravitograms before, during and after
the Sichuan earthquake was done by the
ATROPATENA-AZ station (located in Baku,
Azerbaijan) (Fig. 3). The distance between the
epicenter and the ATROPATENA-AZ station
is 4850 km.
Table 2 shows the parameters of a strong
earthquake in Sichuan, as well as previous
and subsequent shocks.
Since April 25, 2008, ATROPATENA-AZ
stations have registered three-dimensional
gravitational anomalies ΔGx and ΔGy indexes
which is the difference between the gravita-
tional constant G (initially measured G value)
and measured values of the Cavendish bal-
ance at the measurement time GF in two mutu-
ally perpendicular directions (Δg ― variations
of the relative values of gravity (the values
after the decimal point are shown mGal).
Analysis of the first channel of gravito-
gram (Fig. 4) of the Sichuan earthquake shows
that since April 24, 2008 to April 30, 2008,
seven intense gravity anomalies ― the ΔGx
index, have been recorded. In the subsequent
period from 01.05.2008 till 05.05.2008 there
are no anomalies and starting from 05.05.2008
the values of the ΔGx index are reduced by
10 conventional units and remain unchanged
ANALYSIS OF GLOBAL GRAVITATIONAL PRECURSORS BEFORE SOME ASIAN ...
Геофизический журнал № 2, Т. 41, 2019 149
up to 12.05.2008, after which the value of the
index increases to the previous value. At the
time of index recovery, one strong earthquake
occurs: with M7.9 in Sichuan, China on May
12, 2008 (time 06:28:01) and four strong after-
shocks (No 2―5 in table 2).
Then two more strong earthquakes occur
in this epicentre zone: with M5.8, 13 May 2008
and with M5.8, 17 May 2008. From 12 to 13
May can see seven minor secondary anoma-
lies on the gravitogram (1’―7’).
Also, between the primary and second-
ary anomalies, we observe two straight lines,
which persist from 01.05 to 05.05 and from 05
to 12 May 2008.
Analysis of the records of the second
channel shows that from April 24, 2008 to
April 29, 2008, six gravity anomalies were re-
corded ― the ΔGy index, with a smaller am-
plitude, compared to the recording of the first
channel. These anomalies are precursors of
the Sichuan earthquakes.
In the subsequent period till 08.05.2008
there are no anomalies and starting from
06.05.2008 the values of the ΔGy index de-
crease by three conventional units and remain
unchanged up to 12.05.2008, after which the
index value increases by two conventional
units and we observe seven secondary anoma-
lies in the period from 12.05.08 to 16.05.08.
The authors consider that these anomalies are
not precursors of earthquakes, but they are
secondary ones and occur as a result of the
release of powerful tectonic energy at strong
earthquakes and aftershocks. At the moment
of index ΔGy recovery one strong earthquake
occurs: with M7.9 in Sichuan, China on May
12, 2008 (time 06:28:01) and four strong after-
shocks (No 2―5 in table 2).
Then two more strong earthquakes occur
in this epicentre zone: with M5.8, 13 May 2008
and with M5.8, 17 May 2008. From 12 to 13
May can see seven minor secondary anoma-
lies on the gravitogram (1’―7’).
As it can be seen on the recording of the
second channel, from 12 to 17 May, the au-
thors identified seven gravitational anoma-
lies. According to the authors, these anoma-
lies are the result of strong earthquakes and
aftershocks, which occurred in the epicentre
zone of Sichuan earthquake during this pe-
riod of time.
Thus, we single out two types of gravitation-
al anomalies on the second channel. The first
type of anomalies — the precursors and the
second type of anomalies — arise as a result
of earthquakes that have already occurred.
Analysis of gravitograms of the third
channel. Let’s consider the record of the third
channel, which characterizes Δg ― variations
of the relative values of gravity (the values
after the decimal point are shown). These
anomalies have been recorded by a special
Fig. 3. Map of the distribution of tectonic waves in the
region of research.
Ta b l e 2. Earthquakes parameters in Sichuan
No Date, time (UTC) Location
Depth,
km
Magni-
tude
1 May 12, 2008,
06:28:01
31.002°N,
103.322°E 19.0 7.9
2 May 12, 2008,
06:41:56
31.586°N,
104.032°E 10.0 5.7
3 May 12, 2008,
06:42:08
31.342°N,
104.682°E 10.0 5.7
4 May 12, 2008,
06:43:14
31.211°N,
103.715°E 10.0 5.8
5 May 12, 2008,
11:11:02
31.214°N,
103.618°E 10.0 6.1
6 May 13, 2008,
07:07:08
30.890°N,
103.194°E 9.0 5.8
7 May 17, 2008,
17:08:25
32.240°N,
104.982°E 9.0 5.8
E. KHALILOV, L. WANG, L. KHALILOVA
150 Геофизический журнал № 2, Т. 41, 2019
gravimeter of the ATROPATENA station. We
have identified seven intensive anomalies in
the record from 24.04.2008 to 06.05.2008, after
which the value of Δg significantly increases
by 2,3 mGal. This value remains unchanged
till 12.05.2008, after which it drops sharply
by 1,2 mGal. In the period from 12.05.2008
to 13.15.2008, seven secondary anomalies of
smaller amplitude were recorded. Starting
from 13.05.2008, the Δg value is stabilized and
no anomalies are recorded.
Results of gravitogram analysis. It should
be noted that analyses of more than 100 grav-
itograms records by ATROPATENA stations
before, during and after strong earthquakes
in other regions of the world in the periods
from 2008 to 2011 allowed confirming reg-
istration of gravitational precursors before
strong earthquakes [Sobolev et al., 2008;
Khalilov, 2009]. The first type are anomalies
before strong earthquakes ― they are precur-
sors of earthquakes and the second type are
anomalies after strong earthquakes (second-
ary anomalies), which are formed as a result
of radiation of tectonic waves at the time of
the earthquake and release of tectonic ener-
gy. Between these two types of anomalies, in
the overwhelming majority of cases, a long-
term gravitational anomaly with the increased
or decreased value of the ΔG index and Ag,
which remains stable, usually for 2―15 days,
is recorded. These characteristic features of
gravitational anomalies on the records of
gravitograms before, during and after strong
earthquakes are observed in more than 90 %
of cases.
According to the authors’ opinion, which is
supported by the results of numerous experi-
Fig. 4. Records of the first, second and third channels of the ATROPATENA station; ΔGx and ΔGy — indexes which
is the difference between the gravitational constant G (initially measured G value) and measured values of the
Cavendish balance at the measurement time — GF in two mutually perpendicular directions; Ag — variations
of the relative values of gravity/the values after the decimal point are shown; 1—7 — numbers of gravitational
precursors; 1’—7’ — numbers of the Sichuan earthquakes.
ANALYSIS OF GLOBAL GRAVITATIONAL PRECURSORS BEFORE SOME ASIAN ...
Геофизический журнал № 2, Т. 41, 2019 151
ments, the gravitational precursors of strong
earthquakes are the result of the emission of
tectonic waves (stress waves) by earthquake
centers 2―10 days before the earthquake [So-
bolev et al., 2008; Khalilov, 2009]. The time
of registration of gravitational precursors
of strong earthquakes also depends on the
distance of the ATROPATENA station to the
epicenter. The periods of three-dimensional
gravity anomalies vary from 10 minutes to
10―12 hours and depend on the geological
structure of the epicenter zone. It should be
emphasized that the seismic stations that are
included in the set of all ATROPATENA sta-
tions of earthquake forecasting do not regis-
ter any anomalous seismic signals during the
registration of gravitational precursors. The
authors came to a very important conclusion:
ΔG index and Ag they are universal precursors
of earthquakes and are recorded in more than
90 % of cases.
Possible physical model. What physical
model of manifestation of gravity anomalies
can be considered for these experiments?
Currently, in our view, the most optimal is
the model based on emission of slow stress
waves (tectonic waves) from the focus of an
imminent earthquake immediately before
the shock. The possibility of existence of
slow mechanical waves in the lithosphere
has been shown theoretically in the works
[Elsasser, 1969; Lehner et al., 1981] and oth-
er studies. Researches by some authors con-
firm the possibility of formation in the lith-
osphere of slow tectonic waves, which are
sometimes called stress waves or lithosphere
waves [Keilis-Borok, 1999; Gorbunova, Sher-
man, 2012].
Subsequent research and works by
E. N. Khalilov corroborate the generation
of these waves by the focuses of imminent
strong earthquakes and possibility of record-
ing them with the use of the Cavendish bal-
ance. Besides, there are some features in the
ATROPATENA station records that can evi-
dence of the wave origin of the observed grav-
ity anomalies [Khalilov, 2009; Khalilov et al.,
2011]. As the distance between the recording
station and the earthquake’s epicenter grows,
less high-frequency gravity anomalies and
appearance of low-frequency anomalies can
be observed [Khalilov et al., 2011].
Let us consider the process of rupture of a
crust fragment during the motion of tectonic
blocks along the fissure plane as a possible
model for the generation of tectonic waves
before strong earthquakes. Fig. 5, a shows
a fragment of the Earth’s crust with a fissure
before the deformation process. Fig. 5, b pic-
tures the moment when crustal blocks move
relative to each other on the fissure plane at
the time of plastic deformation. Plastic defor-
mation precedes the rupture of a continuous
medium and is accompanied by alternating
voltage which can be a source of stress waves
or tectonic waves. At a certain moment of
plastic deformation and motion of tectonic
blocks, the breaking point for crustal blocks
adhesion strength is reached, followed by a
rupture and abrupt movement of the crustal
blocks leading to emission of seismic waves
and an earthquake as shown in Fig. 5, c. Given
that the plastic strain rate is much lower than
the rate of motion of the tectonic blocks at the
moment of rupture, in the plastic deformation
zone there can be formed slow mechanical
waves, that is, tectonic waves (stress waves).
Plastic deformation of a medium is accom-
panied by destruction processes, forming of
minor cracks which grow and join together
as the deformation continues. The formation
of cracks leads to emergence of hi-frequency
seismic waves.
That is why station 1, the closest to the epi-
center of the Japanese earthquake of March
11, 2008 registered high-frequency oscilla-
tions which were decaying with the increas-
ing distance from the epicenter. Stations more
distant from the epicenter could only record
very low-frequency components of the tec-
tonic wave spectrum [Khalilov et al., 2011].
Fig. 6 show the dependence of the value
of deformation of the earth’s layers on the
growth of mechanical stresses.
At the time of the destruction of the me-
dium, along with seismic waves, secondary
tectonic waves are also emitted. Secondary
tectonic waves are recorded by ATROPA-
TENA stations in the form of secondary gravi-
tational anomalies.
E. KHALILOV, L. WANG, L. KHALILOVA
152 Геофизический журнал № 2, Т. 41, 2019
Fig. 5. Tectonic wave generation model: a — crust fragment with a fissure; b — movement of crust blocks along
the fissure at the moment of plastic deformation; c — moment of rupture and movement of tectonic blocks along
the fissure.
Conclusions. The conclusions drawn by
the authors can be divided into two catego-
ries: experimental results and the model pro-
posed by the authors.
1. Experimental results. To monitor spatio-
temporal variations of the gravitational field,
special detectors named ATROPATENA sta-
tions have been developed and made. The
detectors continuously measure the value
of the gravitational constant G in mutually
perpendicular directions and relative values
of gravity Δg.
Before and after the Mega Earthquakes
in Asia and Southeast Asia, variations of the
Earth’s gravitational field were registered
at large distances from the epicenter (near
ANALYSIS OF GLOBAL GRAVITATIONAL PRECURSORS BEFORE SOME ASIAN ...
Геофизический журнал № 2, Т. 41, 2019 153
8000 km); they were measured with the AT-
ROPATENA stations in the following location:
Baku (Azerbaijan) and Yogyakarta (Indonesia).
Indications of the Cavendish balance when
measuring the gravitational constant G are
influenced by spatio-temporal changes in ex-
ternal gravitational fields of geological origin,
which alter over time indications of the true
values of G.
Measuring the true value of the gravita-
tional constant G on the Earth’s surface with
accuracy greater than the second digit after
the decimal point is not possible due to the
spatio-temporal variations of the gravitational
field as a result of the impact of geodynamic
processes.
For the first time, the true cause of varia-
tions of the recorded values of the gravita-
tional constant G has been identified. These
variations were the subject of scientific dis-
pute throughout the last century.
2. Model. The authors propose a model
of emission of slow tectonic waves (stress
waves) in the focal region of an imminent
earthquake as a result of plastic deformation
of crustal layers immediately before the rup-
Fig. 6. Graph of the dependence of the value of deformation of the earth’s layers on the growth of mechanical
stresses. Black zone shows the formation of tectonic waves.
E. KHALILOV, L. WANG, L. KHALILOVA
154 Геофизический журнал № 2, Т. 41, 2019
ture (abrupt displacement). Tectonic waves
are a sort of mechanical waves, altering the
density of crust layers in the motion process.
Alternating changes in the density of the
earth crust layers lead to periodic changes of
the mass and, as a consequence, of the gravi-
tational field within of the tectonic wave. The
monitoring of spatio-temporal changes in the
gravitational field can be carried out using
special devices consisting of the mutually
perpendicular Cavendish balance and gravi-
meter (ATROPA TENA stations).
The main conclusion. Over the years, geo-
physicists have been trying to find a univer-
sal precursor of earthquakes. They studied
more than 300 types of earthquake precur-
sors, but none of them was universal. Each of
the known precursors arose in 50―65 % of the
cases before the earthquake. This became one
of the main reasons for failures in forecasting
earthquakes. The authors believe that the de-
tected tectonic waves with the help of ATRO-
PATENA earthquake forecasting stations are a
universal precursor of earthquakes, since they
are emitted in all cases during the plastic de-
formation just before the destruction of rocks.
Elsasser, W. H. (1969). Convection and stress
propagation in the upper mantle. Earth andPla-
netary Interiors., (223—246), New York: Willey.
Geller, R. J. (1997). Earthquake prediction: a cri-
Analysis of global gravitational precursors
before some Asian strong earthquakes
E. Khalilov1, L. Wang2, L. Khalilova3, 2019
The authors consider the gravitational precursors of Mega Ear thquakes in Asia and
Southeast Asia: Sichuan earthquake, M7.9, May 12, 2008; Andaman Islands earthquake,
M7.5, August 10, 2009; Samoa Islands earthquake, M8.1, September 29, 2009; Northern
Sumatra earthquake, M7.8, April 06,2010; Tohoku earthquake, M9, March 11, 2011. All
gravitational precursors were recorded using of ATROPATENA earthquake prediction
stations. The creation of an international earthquake prediction system based on the
results obtained is proposed. To monitor spatio-temporal variations of the gravitational
field, special detectors named ATROPATENA stations have been developed and made.
The detectors continuously measure the value of the gravitational constant G in mutu-
ally perpendicular directions and relative values of gravity Δg. Before and after the Mega
Earthquakes in Asia and Southeast Asia, variations of the Earth’s gravitational field were
registered at large distances from the epicenter (near 8000 km); they were measured with
the ATROPATENA stations in the following location: Baku (Azerbaijan) and Yogyakarta
(Indonesia). Indications of the Cavendish balance when measuring the gravitational con-
stant G are influenced by spatio-temporal changes in external gravitational fields of geo-
logical origin, which alter over time indications of the true values of G. Measuring the true
value of the gravitational constant G on the Earth’s surface with accuracy greater than the
second digit after the decimal point is not possible due to the spatio-temporal variations
of the gravitational field as a result of the impact of geodynamic processes.
For the first time, the true cause of variations of the recorded values of the gravitational
constant G has been identified. These variations were the subject of scientific dispute
throughout the last century.
Key words: earthquake prediction, gravitational precursors, tectonic waves, ATRO-
PATENA station, seismology, geodynamics, geotectonics.
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