Methodology for determining climate change by analysis of impurity concentrations in the glacier
The work contains the analysis of possible distributions of aerosol impurities through the glacier depth in those regions of Antarctica, where synoptic maps have shown stabilization of cyclones; and based on this analysis a methodology has been proposed for the determination of climatic parameter ch...
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irk-123456789-1683302020-05-01T01:28:13Z Methodology for determining climate change by analysis of impurity concentrations in the glacier Curmei, M.D. Makarenko, T.I. Melnyk, V.I. Klishevich, G.V. Гідрометеорологічні та океанографічні дослідження The work contains the analysis of possible distributions of aerosol impurities through the glacier depth in those regions of Antarctica, where synoptic maps have shown stabilization of cyclones; and based on this analysis a methodology has been proposed for the determination of climatic parameter changes (average temperature and atmospheric precipitation amount) over a long time period. В роботі проведено аналіз можливих комбінацій розподілу аерозольних домішок вздовж товщі льодовика в тих районах Антарктиди, де на основі синоптичних мап виявлена стабілізація циклонів, і на його основі запропонована методика зміни кліматичних параметрів (середня температура і кількість атмосферних опадів) протягом великого проміжку часу. 2019 Article Methodology for determining climate change by analysis of impurity concentrations in the glacier / M.D. Curmei, T.I. Makarenko, V.I. Melnyk, G.V. Klishevich // Український антарктичний журнал. — 2019. — № 2 (19). — С. 64-69. — Бібліогр.: 18 назв. — англ. 1727-7485 http://dspace.nbuv.gov.ua/handle/123456789/168330 551.46 en Український антарктичний журнал Національний антарктичний науковий центр МОН України |
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Гідрометеорологічні та океанографічні дослідження Гідрометеорологічні та океанографічні дослідження |
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Гідрометеорологічні та океанографічні дослідження Гідрометеорологічні та океанографічні дослідження Curmei, M.D. Makarenko, T.I. Melnyk, V.I. Klishevich, G.V. Methodology for determining climate change by analysis of impurity concentrations in the glacier Український антарктичний журнал |
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The work contains the analysis of possible distributions of aerosol impurities through the glacier depth in those regions of Antarctica, where synoptic maps have shown stabilization of cyclones; and based on this analysis a methodology has been proposed for the determination of climatic parameter changes (average temperature and atmospheric precipitation amount) over a long time period. |
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Article |
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Curmei, M.D. Makarenko, T.I. Melnyk, V.I. Klishevich, G.V. |
| author_facet |
Curmei, M.D. Makarenko, T.I. Melnyk, V.I. Klishevich, G.V. |
| author_sort |
Curmei, M.D. |
| title |
Methodology for determining climate change by analysis of impurity concentrations in the glacier |
| title_short |
Methodology for determining climate change by analysis of impurity concentrations in the glacier |
| title_full |
Methodology for determining climate change by analysis of impurity concentrations in the glacier |
| title_fullStr |
Methodology for determining climate change by analysis of impurity concentrations in the glacier |
| title_full_unstemmed |
Methodology for determining climate change by analysis of impurity concentrations in the glacier |
| title_sort |
methodology for determining climate change by analysis of impurity concentrations in the glacier |
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Національний антарктичний науковий центр МОН України |
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2019 |
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Гідрометеорологічні та океанографічні дослідження |
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http://dspace.nbuv.gov.ua/handle/123456789/168330 |
| citation_txt |
Methodology for determining climate change by analysis of impurity concentrations in the glacier / M.D. Curmei, T.I. Makarenko, V.I. Melnyk, G.V. Klishevich // Український антарктичний журнал. — 2019. — № 2 (19). — С. 64-69. — Бібліогр.: 18 назв. — англ. |
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Український антарктичний журнал |
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2025-07-15T03:07:52Z |
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| fulltext |
64
Cite: Curmei M. D., Makarenko Т. І., Меlnyk V. І., Кlishevich G. V.
Methodology for determining climate change by analysis of impu-
rity concentrations in the glacier. Ukrainian Antarctic Journal, 2019.
№ 2 (19), 64—69.
UDK 551.46
M. D. Curmei 1, *, Т. І. Makarenko 2, V. І. Меlnyk 1, G. V. Кlishevich 1
1 Institute of Physics, National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine, 46 Nauki Ave., Kyiv, 03028, Ukraine,
2 M. P. Semenenko Institute of Geochemistry, Mineralogy and Ore Formation of the National Academy
of Sciences of Ukraine, 34 Acad. Palladina Str., Kyiv, 03142, Ukraine
* Corresponding author: Curmei_ND@ukr.net
Methodology for determining climate change by analysis
of impurity concentrations in the glacier
Abstract. The work contains the analysis of possible distributions of aerosol impurities through the glacier depth in those regions
of Antarctica, where synoptic maps have shown stabilization of cyclones; and based on this analysis a methodology has been
proposed for the determination of climatic parameter changes (average temperature and atmospheric precipitation amount)
over a long time period. The main sources of the impurities in the glaciers of Antarctica are marine and continental aerosols,
carried by meridional circulation of air masses. The annual concentration of chemical impurities, carried from both ocean and
continent, and fallen on the glacier with rain or snow, is approximately the same over a long time period, if the glacier is located
in a region of stable cyclonic activity. In this case, for the analysis, ice cores are taken continuously through the glacier depth.
Linear sizes of all samples are similar. The quantity of annual layers in the sample is determined based on the age of the lower
and upper levels in the glacier, from where the sample is taken. The thickness of the annual ice layer in the glacier is determined
by the amount of fallen atmospheric precipitation and ablation processes. Consequently, all samples correspond to the periods
of both equal and different durability. The quantity of annual layers in the sample (n) characterizes the amount of atmospheric
precipitation of the corresponding period. Changes in the impurity concentrations from sample to sample are connected with
the relative change in temperature of the corresponding periods. Then the two parameters, the number of annual layers, n, and
the layer impurity content, C, have been determined experimentally in each sample. Based on these two parameters, a new
technique has been proposed that allows determination of approximate temperature and precipitation changes over the time
period, equal to the age of the studied glacier.
Keywords: aerosol, glacier, ice age.
ISSN 1727-7485. Український антарктичний журнал. 2019, № 2 (19)
INTRODUCTION
One of the best practices to identify patterns of cli-
mate change and to predict its trends in the future
may be the analysis (reproduction and reconstruc-
tion) of the features of past climate changes. Both
short term and long term climate changes should
be analyzed (Aristarain et al., 1986; Schneider, No-
one, 2007).
Sedimentary accumulations at the bottom of seas
and lakes, as well as ice cores are the natural sources
of information about climate change in the past. The
analysis of heavy oxygen isotopes content along the
ice thickness from 5 deepest wells in Antarctica and
Greenland has let to establish a single chronological
scheme of climate change on the Earth. According to
EPICA, 2004, during the last 500,000 years, average
global temperature cycles of 100,000 years period
Short Notes. Method
Коротке повідомлення. Метод
65ISSN 1727-7485. Український антарктичний журнал. 2019, № 2 (19)
Methodology for determining climate change by analysis of impurity concentrations in the glacier
have been clearly defined in the Earth’s atmosphere.
The epochs of cold and warm climates in the past
have been established and the periods of their alter-
nation, corresponding to four cycles: 19, 23, 41 and
100 thousand years have been identified.
The analysis of the movement of the Earth along
elliptical orbit around the Sun and the laws of celes-
tial mechanics provide theoretical explanation of warm
and cold climatic periods, as well as their duration,
which corresponds to the time periods of the cycles
predicted (calculated) by M. Milankovich: 19, 23, 41
and 100 thousand years respectively.
So-called small Ice Ages also exist next to the cold
Ice Age mentioned above. Thus an interglacial warming
before 1300 AD was found, as well as a significant cool-
ing up before 1900. However, the details of “small Ice
Ages” have not been sufficiently studied in the past.
Budnik et al. (2011—2012), determined the con-
centrations of Al and Si in ice samples of different
ages. The samples were selected from a glacier locat-
ed near Akademik Vernadsky station. A high concen-
tration of Al and Si is observed in those ice samples
that correspond to a warmer period during their for-
mation. These results lead to the aim of finding new
methods for determining the relative changes in aver-
age temperatures and precipitation accumulation
changing the concentration of chemical impurities
along the depth of the glacier respectively.
The purpose of this work is to propose a new me-
thodology for determination of climate change chro-
nological scheme.
Over the last years of the XX century and begin-
ning of the XXI century, a large number of studies
devoted to glacial cores from various horizons of
Antarctic glaciers were performed (Capron et al.,
2010; Dahl-Jensen et al.,1998). According to the re-
sults of occlusive air studying in the ice samples, the
model of ancient atmosphere complex composition
was obtained.
Many publications have analyzed chemical impu-
rities composition in Antarctic glaciers. The sources
of these impurities are different types of aerosols:
space, volcanic, marine (Cl, Mg, Na, K, SO
4
) and
continental dust (Al, Ca, Si, …). Thus, Barnes, Wolf,
(2004) showed ice samples taken from different depths
of the Dome C glacier within first 500 m. Also this
work has shown that marine aerosols include many
salts that mainly concentrate at the boundaries of ice
grains (salts of Na(NaCl), Mg, S).
Barletta et al. (2012) have determined the con-
centration of nitrates and sulfates located in the
grooves (veins) of Antarctica glaciers, which is a
breeding ground for primitive bacteria, viruses, etc.
The role of biological activity in reducing the albedo
of Antarctic glaciers was investigated in Musilova et
al. (2016). The authors (Castebrunet et al., 2006)
investigated the role of the dimethyl sulfide concen-
tration, secreted by phytoplankton during its life.
With marine aerosols the dimethyl sulfide enters the
Antarctic ice, which allows tracking the climate
changes in glacial and interglacial periods. Price
(2007) devote the study to ice channels with a diam-
eter of microns and a water film around aerosols,
which includes dissolved ionic impurities that sup-
port the life of microorganisms. Based on conduc-
tivity examination of Antarctic ice samples, the
concentration of SO
4
ˉ ˉ, Clˉ, NO
3
ˉ ions in different
glacier horizons between 26 and 71 meters of depth
was determined (Moore et al., 1990). It is interest-
ing to study the dependence of chemical elements
concentration on the glacier depth (layer) from
which the sample was selected.
The review made by Korkina (1978) showed the
analysis of peculiarities distribution of different im-
purities along the glacier depth. However, both in-
crease and decrease in sets of glaciers impurities con-
centration were determined depending on the depth,
i.e. the age of the sample. This change in concentra-
tion of impurities in the ice cores selected from dif-
ferent depths may relate to the climatic conditions of
the period when the sampled ice was formed (Budnik
et al., 2011—2012).
RESULTS AND DISCUSSION
We propose a new approach for determining the du-
ration and alternation of warm and cold periods dur-
ing the formation of a glacier based on two parame-
ters: change in average temperature and accumula-
tion of precipitation. The transition from one period
66 ISSN 1727-7485. Ukrainian Antarctic Journal. 2019, № 2 (19)
M. D. Curmei, Т. І. Makarenko, V. І. Меlnyk, G. V. Кlishevich
to another is determined by the number of annual
layers in the sample — n and the amount of chemi-
cal elements in it — C. The proposed method can be
used for glaciers located in the Antarctic region,
where O.G. Krychak and other researchers (Petrov,
1975) identified seven cyclone stabilization areas
along the mainland coast based on synoptic maps:
Weddell Sea, Queen of Maud Land, western Ant-
arctic Peninsula, etc. Then the total annual con-
centration of impurities transported from both the
ocean and the continent over a long time will be ap-
proximately the same.
A complete analysis of glacier ice samples includes
4 stages.
Stage I: equal in volume and linear size ice samples
are selected continuously along the depth of the gla-
cier (see Figure).
Stage II: dating of upper and lower layers of each
sample. Currently, there are a number of techniques
for dating Antarctic glacier cores based on the deter-
mination of cosmogeneous isotope concentrations,
such as Ar 40, C 14, Pb210 and others (Field et al., 2006;
Huber et al., 2006; Taylor et al., 2004). The differ-
ence in obtained values determines the formation pe-
riod of each sample (this should correspond to the
number of annual layers in it). The number of annual
layers in the sample can also be determined by ultra-
sonic laser sounding. This method provide accuracy
within 1 mm for the measurement of glacier layer
thickness (Mikesell et al., 2017). The thickness it-
self depends on the amount of precipitation and the
intensity of ablation (melting and evaporation)
processes during the year. Large thickness of the
layers consequently causes small number of layers
in the sample, and therefore such case corresponds
to high precipitation period. A lower thickness cor-
responds to time with low amount of precipitation,
respectively.
Stage III: determination of chemical impurities
concentration in each sample. For the analysis of im-
purities concentration in the samples it is first neces-
sary to make a selection of typical chemical elements,
that are present in continental aerosols (Al, Ca, Si, ...,
etc.), since these salts are the least soluble in water,
they are less susceptible to migration, which allows
them to accumulate in the respective layers of the
glacier. High sensitive equipment usually provides
determination accuracy of chemical composition in
the range of 10–9 g / g in samples.
Stage IV: сlassification performance. Each sample
is described by the number of annual layers — n, and
its impurities concentration — C. They change from
sample to sample in accordance to the average tem-
perature — T
ave
and the precipitation amount — m
ave
within the period. For determination of climatic
characteristics of the entire set of samples, four sam-
ples with extreme values of the annual layer numbers
and impurities concentrations should be taken. Other
samples are considered as intermediate cases. The
criteria and corresponding climatic performance are
given in the Table.
In the first case, the minimum number of annual
layers in the sample indicates relatively large amount
of precipitation and a cold period.
In the second case, the number of annual layers is
greater and ablation processes are less intense. Ac-
tually the total precipitation amount in both cases is
the same, and the ablation processes in the first case
are more intense, as the equal impurities concentra-
tions are reached in a shorter time. Therefore, the
average temperature in the second case should be
lower than in the first case. The amount of precipi-
tation should be lower than in the fourth case, since
the concentration of impurities in the last case is
higher, due to more intensive ablation processes in
the given period.
Figure. Sampling along the depth of the glacier
67ISSN 1727-7485. Український антарктичний журнал. 2019, № 2 (19)
Methodology for determining climate change by analysis of impurity concentrations in the glacier
In the third case, the precipitation amount is
greater than in the first case, since at the same num-
ber of annual layers, the impurities concentration is
higher, what indicates more intensive ablation pro-
cesses. Therefore, the average temperature of the pe-
riod will be higher than in the first case.
In the fourth case, the amount of precipitation is
greater than in the second case, as the ablation pro-
cesses are more intense and the average temperature
of the period is less than in the third case due to the
equality of impurities concentration at different
amounts of annual layers. It is similar to the tempera-
ture change between the first and second cases.
Similarly, it is possible to determine the climatic
characteristics for all samples throughout the glacier
depth and thus recover the change in mean tempera-
ture and precipitation throughout the life of the gla-
cier according to the rules.
The accuracy of the proposed method is affected
by the cores dating and determination of impurities
concentrations in them.
1) Modern high-sensitivity equipment allows de-
termining the chemical composition of ice samples
with an accuracy of 10–9 g / g.
2) Generally, the accuracy of samples dating is de-
termined by the error of chosen method (by radio-
carbon С14, by isotopes falling on the earth from
aerosols Pb210, Al26, Ве10, Ar40) (Field et al., 2006).
a) Dating of the upper annual layer of the sample
from the “warm” glaciers is almost impossible, be-
cause in couple with evaporation, melting occurred
also in the summer time, which leads to the mixing of
the annual layers due to the infiltration of warm melt
water. If the testing sample includes several tens of
annual layers then the top layer dating error can reach
10—15%.
b) In case of “cold” glaciers, such an error may not
happen due to the fact that ice melting is almost
absent.
3) The layer of annual ice is affected by processes
of plastic ice leakage starting from the depths of more
than 50 meters. Therefore, adjustments to the thick-
Table. Average temperatures, depending on the accumulation intensity of different precipitations
№ View of sample
Annual
layer numbers
m
ave
— mean precipitation
amount in the period
Т
ave
— mean temperature
in the period
1 n
min
= 4 Much Low
2 n
max
= 8 Very little Very low
3 n
min
= 4 Very much Very high
4 n
max
= 8 Little High
1) n
min
C
min
; 2) n
max
C
min
; 3) n
min
C
max
; 4) n
max
C
max
.
n
min
C
min
n
max
C
min
n
min
C
max
n
max
C
max
68 ISSN 1727-7485. Ukrainian Antarctic Journal. 2019, № 2 (19)
M. D. Curmei, Т. І. Makarenko, V. І. Меlnyk, G. V. Кlishevich
ness of the annual layer should be made for these
samples by calibration curves of viscous plastic ice
displacement in the glaciers.
Thus, the proposed method allows investigating
approximate changes in mean temperature and pre-
cipitation intensity within different periods over a
time equal to the glacier age.
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Received 17 September 2019
Accepted 29 November 2019
69ISSN 1727-7485. Український антарктичний журнал. 2019, № 2 (19)
Methodology for determining climate change by analysis of impurity concentrations in the glacier
М. Д. Курмей 1, Т. І. Макаренко 2, В. І. Мельник 1, Г. В. Клішевич 1
1 Інститут фізики Національної академії наук України,
пр. Науки, 46, м. Київ, 03028, Україна
2 Інститут геохімії, мінералогії та рудоутворення ім. М.П. Семененка Національної академії наук України,
пр. Акад. Палладіна, 34, м. Київ, 03142, Україна
* Автор для кореспонденції: Curmei_ND@ukr.net
Методика визначення зміни клімату за аналізом концентрацій хімічних домішок в льодовику
Реферат. В роботі проведено аналіз можливих комбінацій розподілу аерозольних домішок вздовж товщі льодовика в
тих районах Антарктиди, де на основі синоптичних мап виявлена стабілізація циклонів, і на його основі запропоно-
вана методика зміни кліматичних параметрів (середня температура і кількість атмосферних опадів) протягом велико-
го проміжку часу. Основними джерелами домішок в льодовиках Антарктиди є морські і континентальні аерозолі які
переносяться меридіональною циркуляцією повітряних мас. Середньорічна концентрація хімічних домішок, які пе-
реносяться як з океану так і з материка і випадають на льодовик з дощем або снігом, буде приблизно однаковою про-
тягом великого періоду часу, якщо льодовик розташований в районі зі стабільною циклонічною активністю. В цьому
випадку для аналізу льодові керни вибираються безперервно вздовж глибини льодовика. Лінійні розміри всіх зразків
однакові. Визначається число річних шарів в зразку, використовуючи вік нижнього і верхнього горизонтів в льодови-
ку, звідки був відібраний зразок. Товщина річного шару льоду в льодовику визначається кількістю випадаючих атмос-
ферних опадів і процесами абляції. Отже, всім зразкам відповідають періоди як однакової так і різної тривалості.
Число річних шарів в зразку (n) характеризує кількість атмосферних опадів відповідного періоду. Зміна концентрації
домішок від зразка до зразка пов’язана з відносною зміною температури відповідних періодів. Після цього експери-
ментально визначаються два параметри: число річних шарів – n та вміст домішок у них – C в кожному зразку. На
основі цих двох параметрів запропонована нова методика, яка дозволяє оцінити зміни середньої температури і кіль-
кості атмосферних опадів упродовж часу, рівного віку льодовика.
Ключові слова: аерозоль, льодовик, льодовиковий період.
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/NLD (Gebruik deze instellingen om Adobe PDF-documenten te maken die zijn geoptimaliseerd voor prepress-afdrukken van hoge kwaliteit. De gemaakte PDF-documenten kunnen worden geopend met Acrobat en Adobe Reader 5.0 en hoger.)
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/ENU (Use these settings to create Adobe PDF documents best suited for high-quality prepress printing. Created PDF documents can be opened with Acrobat and Adobe Reader 5.0 and later.)
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>>
/Namespace [
(Adobe)
(Common)
(1.0)
]
/OtherNamespaces [
<<
/AsReaderSpreads false
/CropImagesToFrames true
/ErrorControl /WarnAndContinue
/FlattenerIgnoreSpreadOverrides false
/IncludeGuidesGrids false
/IncludeNonPrinting false
/IncludeSlug false
/Namespace [
(Adobe)
(InDesign)
(4.0)
]
/OmitPlacedBitmaps false
/OmitPlacedEPS false
/OmitPlacedPDF false
/SimulateOverprint /Legacy
>>
<<
/AddBleedMarks false
/AddColorBars false
/AddCropMarks false
/AddPageInfo false
/AddRegMarks false
/ConvertColors /ConvertToCMYK
/DestinationProfileName ()
/DestinationProfileSelector /DocumentCMYK
/Downsample16BitImages true
/FlattenerPreset <<
/PresetSelector /MediumResolution
>>
/FormElements false
/GenerateStructure false
/IncludeBookmarks false
/IncludeHyperlinks false
/IncludeInteractive false
/IncludeLayers false
/IncludeProfiles false
/MultimediaHandling /UseObjectSettings
/Namespace [
(Adobe)
(CreativeSuite)
(2.0)
]
/PDFXOutputIntentProfileSelector /DocumentCMYK
/PreserveEditing true
/UntaggedCMYKHandling /LeaveUntagged
/UntaggedRGBHandling /UseDocumentProfile
/UseDocumentBleed false
>>
]
>> setdistillerparams
<<
/HWResolution [2400 2400]
/PageSize [612.000 792.000]
>> setpagedevice
|