Impact of environmental catastrophes and energy crises on international economic development
Influence of globalisation on formation of system of eco-energy security of the states is analysed, the role of influence of global eco-energy calls on branch development of economic is defined, level of power efficiency of national economies in the conditions of strengthening of ecological requirem...
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irk-123456789-240032022-09-29T21:44:47Z Impact of environmental catastrophes and energy crises on international economic development Ryabchyn, О. International and Regional Economics Influence of globalisation on formation of system of eco-energy security of the states is analysed, the role of influence of global eco-energy calls on branch development of economic is defined, level of power efficiency of national economies in the conditions of strengthening of ecological requirements to world economic to development is investigated and the estimation of progress and a condition of performance of the Kyoto report concerning minimisation of negative eco-energy consequences of globalisation is spent. Key words: economy globalisation, a sustainable development, the international eco-energy security, the Kyoto report, global problems, power efficiency, climate change. Проаналізовано вплив глобалізації на формування системи еколого-енергетичної безпеки держав, визначено роль впливу глобальних еколого-енергетичних викликів на галузевий розвиток світової економіки, досліджено рівень енергоефективності національних економік в умовах посилення екологічних вимог до світогосподарського розвитку та проведено оцінку прогресу і стану виконання Кіотського протоколу щодо мінімізації негативних еколого-енергетичних наслідків глобалізації. Ключові слова: глобалізація економіки, сталий розвиток, міжнародна еколого-енергетична безпека, Кіотський протокол, глобальні проблеми, енергоефективність, зміни клімату. Проведен анализ направлений преодоления негативных экологических последствий глобализации, необходимых для развития системы международной эколого-энергетической безопасности ради осуществления быстрого перехода к глобальной экологической экономике, которая основывается на установлении рыночных механизмов возмещения выбросов парниковых газов, обеспечении государственного регулирования для смягчения и адаптации к последствиям климатических изменений и активизации международного сотрудничества между развитыми и развивающимися странами. Ключевые слова: глобализация экономики, устойчивое развитие, международная эколого-энергетическая безопасность, Киотский протокол, глобальные проблемы, энергоэффективность, изменение климата. 2010 Article Impact of environmental catastrophes and energy crises on international economic development / О. Ryabchyn // Економічний вісник Донбасу. — 2010. — № 4(22). — С. 102-110. — Бібліогр.: 6 назв. — англ. 1817-3772 http://dspace.nbuv.gov.ua/handle/123456789/24003 339.92:504 en Економічний вісник Донбасу Інститут економіки промисловості НАН України |
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International and Regional Economics International and Regional Economics |
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International and Regional Economics International and Regional Economics Ryabchyn, О. Impact of environmental catastrophes and energy crises on international economic development Економічний вісник Донбасу |
| description |
Influence of globalisation on formation of system of eco-energy security of the states is analysed, the role of influence of global eco-energy calls on branch development of economic is defined, level of power efficiency of national economies in the conditions of strengthening of ecological requirements to world economic to development is investigated and the estimation of progress and a condition of performance of the Kyoto report concerning minimisation of negative eco-energy consequences of globalisation is spent. Key words: economy globalisation, a sustainable development, the international eco-energy security, the Kyoto report, global problems, power efficiency, climate change. |
| format |
Article |
| author |
Ryabchyn, О. |
| author_facet |
Ryabchyn, О. |
| author_sort |
Ryabchyn, О. |
| title |
Impact of environmental catastrophes and energy crises on international economic development |
| title_short |
Impact of environmental catastrophes and energy crises on international economic development |
| title_full |
Impact of environmental catastrophes and energy crises on international economic development |
| title_fullStr |
Impact of environmental catastrophes and energy crises on international economic development |
| title_full_unstemmed |
Impact of environmental catastrophes and energy crises on international economic development |
| title_sort |
impact of environmental catastrophes and energy crises on international economic development |
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Інститут економіки промисловості НАН України |
| publishDate |
2010 |
| topic_facet |
International and Regional Economics |
| url |
http://dspace.nbuv.gov.ua/handle/123456789/24003 |
| citation_txt |
Impact of environmental catastrophes and energy crises on international economic development / О. Ryabchyn // Економічний вісник Донбасу. — 2010. — № 4(22). — С. 102-110. — Бібліогр.: 6 назв. — англ. |
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| fulltext |
102
Економічний вісник Донбасу № 4 (22), 2010
О. Ryabchyn
All global problems of today are closely linked, so
their isolated solving is virtually impossible. Thus, the
ensuring of further economical development of natural
resources implies the prevention of the growing
environmental pollution, or it in the foreseeable future
will lead to an ecological catastrophe on a planetary scale.
The essence of the global environmental and energy
crisis is in growing conflict between the ensuring of
productive activity and stability of the natural environment.
Thus, the demand for oil and gas increases, and
their stocks decline. Thus, until 2030 we can expect an
increase in energy consumption at 37-50%, while existing
stocks can be exhausted in 50-60 years. All this leads to
the creation of the energy market, where consumers,
not producers, will compete. It is necessary to unite the
efforts of the international community in order to
overcome the impending energy crisis. [1]
Climate change is a global problem in its essence
and consequences, and presents a unique challenge for
the economy: it is the largest and large-scale market
failures that the world has ever seen. Therefore, economic
analysis should be comprehensive and cover a long period
of time, to take into account various risks and
uncertainties, and to investigate the probability of
significant change.
There is no problem of choice between the cessation
of climate change and economic growth and
development. Changes in energy technologies and the
structure of economies have reduced the relationship
between greenhouse gases emissions and rising incomes,
especially in some developed countries. With significant,
carefully-thought-out measures it is possible to make the
economy of both developed and developing countries not
«carbon-dependent», while maintaining economic
growth.
Number of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere
(including carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide and
other gases derived from industrial production) increases
as a result of human activities. Climate change is caused
by greenhouse gas emissions from economic activity.
Due to the fact that greenhouse gases were previously
considered as safe effects of economic activities caused
by them damage was not included in the calculation of
production costs. While economic development was
accompanied by an increase in welfare, the hypothesis
of global warming had remained vague threats to
humanity in the long term, but not in the near future. The
situation requires decisive and immediate action to change
existing attitudes and behavior.
The severity of climate change will be unevenly
distributed. Some branches, such as building, can benefit
from global warming. Others, such as industry, will not
be greatly affected by climate change only with taking
energy saving measures. However, such sectors as
agriculture, insurance, water supply, tourism and so on
will be affected quite strongly. It is more important for
the economy not so much an increase in average
temperature or moisture, as increasing in extreme weather
phenomenon. (Table 1).
The data shows that ignoring climate change will
lead subsequently to a leveling of growth in the economy.
Our actions over the coming decades could create a
substantial threat of destruction of economic and social
activity in the second half of this century and into the
next century, on a scale comparable with the great wars
and the economic depression of the first half of the
twentieth century. It will be extremely difficult or even
impossible, to reverse these changes. Elimination of
climate change — a strategy of growth for the long term,
and it can be done without limiting the aspirations for
growth of rich or poor countries. The sooner we take
effective measures, the less their value.
Evaluating the Kyoto Protocol, we must take into
account the level of knowledge and the realities of 10-
year-old and practices of international activities in general.
«Green» criticized the protocol for weakness, that it only
slightly inhibited the growth of greenhouse gases in the
atmosphere. However, in practice there was only one
alternative: either the phase, which was agreed in Kyoto,
or nothing.
The Kyoto Protocol requires that 38 developed
countries on average for 2008-2012 generally do not
exceed about 95% of greenhouse gas emissions in 1990.
For the EU countries the level of commitment — 92%,
USA — 93% for Japan and Canada — 94%, Russia,
Ukraine and New Zealand — 100%, Norway — 101%
Australian — 108%, and Iceland — 110%. Later the U.S.
and Australia refused to participate in the protocol. The
United States were facing the political ambitions of Gore
and Bush in conjunction with weak economic study to
УДК 339.92:504
О. Ryabchyn,
PhD (Economics), Donetsk National University,
Ukraine
IMPACT OF ENVIRONMENTAL CATASTROPHES AND ENERGY CRISES
ON INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT
103
Економічний вісник Донбасу № 4 (22), 2010
О. Ryabchyn
reduce emissions. Australia simply played safe, but now
this country has ratified the Kyoto Protocol, and
confidently implements the commitments. [3]
After accepting of the obligations of Kyoto there
was a redistribution within the European Union: Germany
and the UK reduced emissions by 15% or more, France
and Finland had similar obligations as in Russia, and
Portugal, Greece, Ireland were allowed to increase their
emissions. It was not concerned developing countries.
At the first stage of debugging it was too difficult to
change traditions of the UN and to achieve numerical
commitments even from such powerful countries as
South Korea, Singapore, Argentina, not mentioning China
and India.
By the end of 2012 there is every reason to expect
the conditions of the Protocol to reduce emissions for
36 developed country participants. In Canada, Japan,
several EU countries there will be considerable difficulties,
but they are surmountable. There is a large supply of
allowances in Russia and Ukraine; Germany, France and
the United Kingdom — the largest EU countries
confidently carry out plans to reduce emissions. There
is successful development of market-based approach to
regulate emissions. European trading system is running
and it is expected that the EU, Norway, Switzerland and
Iceland will join to 27 EU countries.
The experience of all international activities and the
Kyoto Protocol shows that preparation of a new
agreement takes at least 2 years, and its ratification will
take another 2-3 years. Therefore, it is in 2006-2007
Table 1
Forecast of climate change due to changes in the extreme weather phenomenon
and climate by mid-end of the XXI century [2]
Major projected impacts on some sectors Phenomenon and the
trend Agriculture, forestry and
ecosystems
Water resources
Industry, settlements and
society
It is warm, less cold days
and nights, warmer and
more frequent hot days and
nights in most parts of the
land
Increasing yields in colder
environments; lowering
yields in warmer
environments, enhancing the
activity of insects
Impact on water resources,
depending on snow melt; the
impact on some sources of
water supply
Reduced energy demand for
heating; increased energy
demand for cooling;
deterioration of air quality in
cities; less disruption to
transport due to snow and ice;
the impact on winter tourism
Warm periods / heat waves.
The frequency is increasing
in most land areas
The decrease in yields in
warmer regions due to
thermal stress; increasing the
risk of natural fires
Increased demand for water;
problems with water quality,
for example, because of the
fast-growing algae blooms
Reduced quality of life of
people in warm areas without
appropriate housing;
implications for the elderly,
very young children and poor
people
Strong rainfall. The
frequency of precipitation
in most areas is growing
Damage to crops; soil
erosion, inability to cultivate
the land due to soil
waterlogging
Adverse impact on the quality
of surface and groundwater;
pollution of water sources,
water shortages can be
mitigated
Damage Settlements, breach
of commercial activities,
transportation and normal life
of the population; loss of
property
Increasing area struck by
drought
Land degradation, lower crop
yields, damage to agricultural
crops, crop failure; raising the
death of cattle; raising the
risk of fires
More widespread water stress
Water shortages for
settlements, industry and
population; reducing the
capacity of hydropower; the
potential for migration of
population
Growing in tensity of
tropical cyclonic activity
Damage to crops; tearing
trees from the roots of the
wind, damage to coral reefs
Interruptions in the supply of
energy causes disruption in
public water supplies
Damage by floods and strong
winds; cancellation insurance
in vulnerable areas by private
companies, the potential for
population migration, loss of
property
Increased number of cases
of extremely high sea level
(without tsunami)
Salinization of irrigation
water, estuaries and
freshwater systems
Reduced availability of fresh
water due to saltwaters
The cost of strengthening the
coast in comparison with the
costs of land use change; the
potential of population
migration and infrastructure.
104
Економічний вісник Донбасу № 4 (22), 2010
О. Ryabchyn
practical acts were taken to prepare a new agreement. In
December 2007 at the UN Conference in Bali the formal
decision was taken to prepare a new international
agreement for two years. Its signing is scheduled at the
UN Conference in Copenhagen in December 2009. As
starting point the IPCC recommendations were made:
by 2050, reduction of global greenhouse gas emissions
to levels below 50% from 1990 levels; by 2020 reduction
of emissions of all industrialized countries in general, 25-
40% (from 1990 levels).
It is hard to imagine a new agreement without the
participation of the United States and other major
countries, such as the EU, China and Russia. Five years
of the Kyoto Protocol is very little time. There is a need
for the opportunity to work for the future — to reduce
emissions rapidly, realizing what benefits it will bring for
10-20 years or more. [4]
In recent years the number of goals related to climate
change has significantly increased. National governments
have adopted a wide range of purposes. (Tabl.2).
Number of projects to reduce emissions is rapidly
growing. The UN FCCC has already filed more than 2000
projects, around 1000 were completely recorded, and
they are implemented. Only the approved projects by 2012
will provide a reduction in emissions by 1 billion tons of
CO2. Most projects in developing countries use economic
Clean Development Mechanism of the Kyoto Protocol.
The number of JI projects submitted to the UN FCCC, is
growing rapidly. In general, it is expected that the Kyoto
Protocol by 2012 will generate more than 3000 projects
with a total reduction in emissions of about 4 billion tons
of CO2, and the amount of climate investment will be
not less than $ 30 billion. [5]
The most important outcome of the Kyoto Protocol
would be, probably, its role as a catalyst throughout the
climate activity: the development of worldwide energy-
efficient technologies, renewable energy, support for
science and education.
The principal peculiarity of the new agreement
should be its direct connection with long-term global
strategy to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Science
has almost answered the question what climate change
is acceptable for nature and man: 2 ° C of global warming
is the limit. If at 2 ° C «only» 500 million people by mid-
century will suffer from a lack of fresh water, then at 3
° C, their number will increase to 3 billion people. This
sudden jump, of course, would be a severe impact on
the world economy, especially on developing countries.
By mid-century, 200 million people could migrate, which
will inevitably affect the Ukraine. The Arctic permafrost
zone will be greatly affected: there 2 ° C means 10 ° C
and even more, which would require drastic change in
infrastructure. To stabilize the future concentration of
greenhouse gases in the atmosphere at a level of 550
parts by volume of CO2-equivalent per 1 million (which
would limit the global effect of 2 ° C to mid-century to
reduce the emissions of approximately 2 times the level
in 1990). The global economy is able to reduce emissions
Table 2
Targets to reduce greenhouse gas
Purpose and proposals to
reduce greenhouse gases
Nearest period
(2012-2015)
Medium period (2020) Long period
(2050)
Countries Kyoto Target
(2008-2012)
Post-Kyoto
EU 8% 20% (individually) o r 30%
(international agreement)
60-80% (international
agreement)
France 0% - 75%
Germany 21% 40% -
Italy 6,50% - -
Sweden 4% growth (4% decrease - a
national task to 2010)
25%
-
United Kingdom 12 ,5% (national task 20%)
26-32%
60%
Australia 8% growth - -
Canada 6% 20% compared to 2006 60-70%
compared to 2006
Japan 6% - 50%
Norway 1% increase (10% -
reduction - a national
prob lem)
30% (until 2030)
100%
Ukraine 0% 25% -
United States 7% - -
WORLD Peak of emissions 30% At least 80%
105
Економічний вісник Донбасу № 4 (22), 2010
О. Ryabchyn
without significant losses. Their peak will be in the 2020-
ies and after will be a significant decrease. Otherwise,
the damage will be much higher: up to 5% of world GDP
of direct monetary losses, and 10 or even 20% loss of
global GDP on social catastrophes — migration, conflicts
between countries, the mass loss of investment, etc. [2]
The three main ways of participation of countries
in the future agreement must be:
• reducing emissions in developed countries,
corresponding to a twofold reduction of emissions by
2050. The development of international and national
market-trading mechanism by quotas and cost
optimization;
• activity in major developing countries, massive
development projects to reduce emissions, the
introduction of new technologies, a significant reduction
of specific emissions (per unit of GDP). These actions
should also be linked with the global strategy to reduce
emissions by 2050;
• assistance in adapting to climate change to the
poorest countries and most vulnerable regions.
Climate policy will have more impact on the industries
that consume much energy per unit of production, such
as chemicals, cement production, aviation, metallurgy and
all the fuel and energy sectors — oil, gas, coal and electricity
production. Climate policy has also concerned those areas
that produce commodities whose use is associated with
high costs of energy (eg cars).
As the growing scarcity of resources and enhance
the impact of exogenous factors the relationship between
agricultural development and environmental protection
is growing. It is possible to reduce the scale of the impact
of agriculture on the environment, reduce the vulnerability
of agricultural production systems to climate change and
ensure that agriculture provided more environmental
services. The solution is not to slow down the agricultural
development but to form more sustainable production
systems.
The first step is to create adequate incentives to
this by strengthening property rights and the reduction
of subsidies, leading to the depletion of natural resources.
It is urgent to take measures to adapt agriculture to climate
change, from which small farmers will be most affected
— will suffer unjustly because their guilt in the incident
is minimal. Thus, agriculture has great potential for
economic growth, poverty reduction and provision of
services in the environmental field, but to realize this
potential, it is required active involvement of the state —
providing key public goods, improving the investment
climate, regulating natural resources and ensuring the
desired results in the social field.
To agriculture has contributed to the solution of
problems of development, it is necessary to improve
management of agriculture at the local, national and global
levels. The state should increase its capacity for inter-
sectoral coordination and the establishment of partnerships
with the private sector and civil society. At the global
level it is necessary to solve complex problems relating
to inter-related agreements and international public goods.
The empowerment of civil society and, in particular,
producer organizations, plays an important role in
improving the quality of governance at all levels.
Using the (often irrational) natural resources,
agriculture can become a source, both beneficial and
adverse effects on the environment. To date, it is the
largest consumer of water, exacerbating the shortage. It
is becoming a major cause of groundwater depletion,
agrochemical pollution, soil depletion and global climate
change, since it accounts for 30 percent of greenhouse
gas emissions. But the same time agriculture is a major,
often unrecognized provider of environmental services,
connecting carbon, regulating watersheds and preserving
biodiversity. As resource depletion, climate change and
awareness of the environmental costs of traditional
methods of natural resources in agriculture are becoming
less acceptable. It is imperative to reduce the vulnerability
of poor farming villages before climate change. Increased
attention to the interaction between agriculture, natural
resource conservation and the environment should
become an integral part of agriculture for development.
Improving the sustainability of agriculture and its
transformation into a provider of environmental services.
Agriculture has a significant negative impact on the
environment, but there are many opportunities to soften
it. Environmental issues are inseparable from the broader
perspective of agricultural development. The future of
agriculture is inextricably linked to improving the quality
of those natural resources on which it depends. Both
intense and extensive agriculture are faced with
environmental problems — but of different types.
Intensification of agriculture has led to environmental
problems associated with the reduction of biodiversity,
inadequate management of irrigation water, agrochemical
pollution, as well as morbidity and mortality from pesticide
poisoning. Many regions that are in less favorable agro-
ecological situation, suffer from deforestation, soil erosion,
desertification and degradation of pastures and
watersheds. In the mountainous regions of East African
soil erosion reduces the productivity of up to 2-3 per
cent per year, and has other side effects such as siltation
of water basins.
The solution is not to slow down the pace of
agricultural development, but in search of more
sustainable production systems and in expanding the role
of agriculture as a provider of environmental services.
Many promising innovations in the technical and
106
Економічний вісник Донбасу № 4 (22), 2010
О. Ryabchyn
institutional levels may increase the environmental
sustainability of agriculture, minimally affecting the
economic growth and poverty reduction.
The introduction of payment for environmental
services can help to overcome market failures in managing
the impact of factors of production on the environment.
Protecting water basins and forests is a source of
environmental services (clean water, stable water supply
of irrigation systems, carbon sequestration and
biodiversity protection), suppliers of which may receive
compensation from those who use these services. The
interest to these issues is growing, especially in Latin
America. In Nicaragua, the introduction of payments led
to a reduction in the area of degraded pasture and arable
land almost by 50 per cent and a shift to cattle grazing in
environmentally sustainable pastures to conserve
significant proportion of forest. Environmental
certification of products also allows consumers to pay
for sustainable environmental regulation, as practiced
under the regime of fair trade or in the realization of coffee,
grown on tree-shaded plots.
Agriculture and deforestation in developing countries
are also major emitters of greenhouse gases: they are
affected by 30 percent of all emissions. [6]
Plans of trading on carbon emissions — especially
if the scope of their coverage will be increased so as to
provide funding for measures to prevent deforestation
and carbon sequestration in soil (eg, conservation tillage),
— give the huge and not yet used the possibility to reduce
emissions occurring due to changes in the use of
agricultural land. On some measures to improve land use
practices and livestock (eg, conservation tillage and
agroforestry) are often benefited all parties: after the initial
investment, they can contribute to a more productive
and sustainable farming systems.
Global warming is one of the most uncertainties
for agriculture. If the emissions will continue at current
levels, then the world’s average temperature is likely to
rise by 2 ° C-3 ° C over the next 50 years, including
rainfall and the frequency of extreme weather conditions.
The effect is not distributed evenly. While many areas
have become wetter, parts of the Mediterranean, South
Africa, and parts of South Asia are becoming drier. Water
deficit will increase in many areas, particularly in already
dry parts of Africa and in areas of melting glaciers — an
important source of irrigation water.
The agriculture, which employs 4,2% of the
population of the EU, gives up to 1,7% of GDP in Europe.
The temperature increase of 2 ° C can increase yields,
but not in all regions and all years. Heat wave in 2003
destroyed from 30 to 40% of the grain harvest, and in
France on poultry farms in the heat killed 4.5 million
chickens. It is expected that due to the increased number
of droughts, poor crop years in Russia will be repeated
about twice as often after 2020, and by 2070 in some
regions, the yield decreased by 40%. The productivity
of forestry in Northern Europe has increased by 10%,
but in southern Europe will arise many problems: lack of
water and heat waves will lead to drought, spontaneous
forest fires, erosion and desertification. [6]
With moderate warming, crop yields, the increase
in areas of temperate climate and the decline in the tropics
are expected. Economics and climate models predict an
increase in global crop production in mild and moderate
scenarios of warming less than 3 ° C. But the combined
effect of higher average temperatures, the great variability
in temperature and precipitation, more frequent and intense
droughts and floods, and reduce the suitability of water
for irrigation can be devastating to agriculture in many
tropical areas. One-third of the population of Africa is in
danger of hunger, one-quarter in Western Asia, and
approximately one-sixth in Latin America.
It is predicted a large impact of climate change on
food prices globally by 2050. Some models predict more
significant effects of climate change after 2050 with a
further increase in temperature (fig.1.). But the greater
impact is expected at the regional level. According to the
scenario of not changing the climate, the agricultural gross
domestic product in sub-Saharan Africa (the region with
the highest impact of climate change) could decrease by
2.9%.
The climate change has an importance for the
distribution of agricultural production. In the globalizing
world, some adaptation may be accomplished through
trade, if measures can ensure alternative livelihood areas
under the greatest influence. But for much of the tropics,
especially of sub-Saharan Africa, which adversely affected
by climate change, trade can only partially fill the gap.
Climatic modeling indicates a very significant change
in the patterns of production. One study summarized the
results of six such models, has revealed future changes
in production capacity by 2080-ies. The perspective looks
bleak. At the global level, the potential of aggregate
agricultural production will hardly affect climate change.
However, averages conceal wide variations. As shown
in Fig. 2. by 2080-ies the agricultural potential of the
developed countries could increase by 8%, mainly as a
result of a longer growing season of plants, whereas in
the developing world it can be reduced by 9%, with the
heaviest losses, estimated to suffer from Sub-Saharan
Africa Sahara and Latin America.
Chemical industry is one of the most dynamic
sectors in most countries because of introduction of new
production and technology. But it is connected also with
many contemporary problems of environmental pollution.
The composition of air emissions from chemical
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О. Ryabchyn
plants is also extremely diverse. Petrochemical production
pollutes the atmosphere with hydrogen sulfide and
hydrocarbons, the production of synthetic rubber —
styrene, divinyl, toluene and acetone; alkali manufacturing-
hydrogen chloride, etc. In large quantities such substances
are emitted as oxides of carbon and nitrogen, ammonia,
inorganic dust, fluorinated substances and many others.
One of the most problematic sides of chemical plants
is spreading in nature of not previously existing
connections. Among them especially harmful synthetic
surface-active substances — surfactants (sometimes
referred to as detergent) are considered. They are emitted
into the environment during production and use in the
home of various detergents. Proceeding from industrial
and municipal sewage into water bodies, detergents are
badly delayed by treatment facilities, promote the
appearance of abundant foam in water, give it a toxic
properties and odor, cause of death and rebirth of aquatic
organisms and, very importantly, increase the toxic
effects of other pollutants.
These are the main negative impacts on natural
systems of the leading global industry. Naturally, the listed
industrial influence is not confined: there are machine
engineering, using the products of metallurgy and
chemical industry and contributing to the scattering of
many substances in the environment, and water-intensive
industries like pulp and paper and food, ensuring the same
high proportion of organic contaminants environment,
etc. Based on the analysis of the impact on the ecology
of the three major industries it can be determined the
nature and ways of industrial pollution for any industry,
for which you need to know the specifics of production.
The main difference between the agricultural
impacts of the industry is primarily in their distribution
over large areas. Typically, the use of large areas for
agricultural use is a radical transformation of all
components of natural complexes. It is not necessarily
destruction of nature, quite often it is the agricultural
landscapes are classified as «cultural». [6]
The financial sector needs to adapt its domestic
policies, proposed financial services and products to those
new purposes, which are put before a company to reduce
emissions. Restructuring of the financial sector is needed
primarily to financial companies, if they want to maintain
their stability in a changing environment. In order to
finance companies were able to make a worthy
contribution to overall global efforts to resist climate
change, they will need to formulate a consistent,
transparent and internationally agreed policies to reduce
CO2 emissions in the long term. Such a policy could be
a guarantee for investors, ensure a favorable investment
environment and expand opportunities for business
Fig. 1. Predicted transformation of the world agriculture performance in 2080 from climate change
(including greenhouse gas emissions from fertilizer) [6]
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development of customer-companies, which buy financial
services.
To the financial sector can better adapt to changing
political realities, financial companies must include the
risk of climate change in the range of risks that are taken
into account in forming of corporate strategy and policy,
decision-making process and calculate the financial
indicators for financial reporting purposes.
Climate change and climate policies affect the
activities of the insurance sector, because its customers
are forced to insure new risks that were not before. In
recent years, there are many extreme weather events and
phenomenon: typhoon “Katrina”, almost annual heat
waves and floods in Europe, India, America. Every year
it becomes increasingly clear that this was not an accident.
Since climatologists are predicting an increase in
frequency and intensity of extreme weather events, it
can be expected to increase premiums in the event of
damage to insured property, which has suffered from
such weather. Therefore, insurers are considering climate
change as a threat rather than as an opportunity.
A large number of tropical storms in 2004 increased
the insured against weather damage to a record value —
32 billion euros. Although there is no convincing evidence
that the frequency of tropical storms is directly related
to the change of climate, increase in the number of storms
has become a factor, which strongly influence on the
activities of companies insurance.
According to the Association of British Insurers,
the cost of insurance payments in the UK, related to
damage from extreme weather events, by 2050 will
double, reaching 3.3 billion euros. At the same time the
most unfavorable weather for the year could cost insurers
20 billion euros. In Germany, the total damage from flood
could reach 15 billion euros. Climate change increases
the risk of damage to private property at a rate of 2 to
4% per year.
Although over 98% people, who are affected by
climate disasters, live in developing countries, the
economic consequences of disasters are biased towards
rich countries. This is due primarily to the fact that costs
are calculated based on the value of property and insurance
losses, which increase sharply. All eight climatic disasters
after 2000 with inflicting damage amounting to over 10
billion dollars occurred in rich countries, six of them in
the United States.
However, climate change also increases the need
for the usual procedure of transfer of risks and
opportunities for the development of insurance business,
such as insurance projects to reduce emissions.
The banking sector plays an important role in
financing climate projects and investment climate policy.
The Banks manage their credit risk and develop new
services to hedge weather risk. Adverse effects of climate
change for banks are mainly associated with increased
risk of non-return of loans and loans (credit risk) due to
the fact that efforts to reduce emissions will lead to higher
costs of those companies and industries whose activities
are associated with significant carbon emissions. Price
volatility in carbon markets (ie markets, CO2 emissions,
the markets for oil, gas and coal), and markets products
that are relevant to climate change, increases the
uncertainty of financial projections. For example, the price
of one ton of CO2 emissions for two years from June
2003 to January 2009 increased from 5 to 20 euros.
But climate change also creates new opportunities
for the development of the banking business. According
to the World Energy Council, the market volume of
renewable energy sources by 2020 could reach 1.4 trillion
euro. According to consulting firm Point Carbon, the
Fig. 2. Forecast of changes in world agricultural production capacity in 2000-2080.% [5]
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volume of the global carbon market by 2010 could reach
200 billion euros. Use of Kyoto mechanisms can increase
the profitability of projects in the energy sector by 15
percentage points (for example, projects to reduce
methane emissions).
Emission permits trading creates a new relationship
between the companies — cross-border relations,
opportunities for exchange of various goods and
products, and all this in a growing international context.
Significant new investments, including international, will
be invested in technologies that are characterized by
significant value added. In this context, the main difficulty
that needs to be overcome, related to the contradiction
between the long-term objectives of investment policies
and relatively rapid changes in government regulation.
Since 1970, some experts have considered the
energy conservation as its additional source. They relied
on the fact that the reduction of energy loss is comparable
to the volume of its production, and often cheaper than
production. In this respect, it is a very promising sector
of buildings — both residential and industrial. With
competent organization you can achieve good results, as
is evidenced by some of the conclusions of the Third
Working Group, studying the climate change mitigation
in the Fourth Report of the IPCC (Intergovernmental
Panel on Climate Change). This report has submitted to
the general public this year.
In 2007, the building sector accounted for about
one third of world energy consumption and greenhouse
gas (GHG) emissions. It is expected that in the next 25
years, the absolute energy consumption in buildings will
increase, while retaining a constant share of the growing
global volume. The increase in greenhouse gas emissions
will occur in virtually all regions of the world, including
in countries with transition economies.
There are two ways to reduce GHG emissions. It is
possible, firstly, to reduce energy consumption in buildings,
and secondly, to move to low carbon fuels, including
renewable energy. Now available a wide range of energy-
efficient and low carbon technologies. On the basis of
existing and new buildings can achieve savings of 50%
and 75% respectively, which allows significantly reducing
GHG emissions in this sector. Often real improvements
either with little extra cost, or do without them. Incidentally,
in countries with transition economies the reserve of
emission reductions is very large. This use of energy-saving
bulbs, improved insulation and central heating, use of
efficient appliances and systems for regulating energy
consumption. Numerous studies show that in countries
with economies in transition it is possible to cut about
30% of baseline emissions with net profits by 2020. It is
also clear that in countries with economies in transition,
heat-saving technologies can save more energy than electro-
saving ones. Household appliances and lighting technology
investments return more quickly than isolation, and
requiring large-scale investments replacement of buildings
elements. Therefore, unit cost reductions by means of
electro-saving technologies are lower than cost of energy-
saving technologies. It should be noted that the evaluation
of economic efficiency does not include financial
evaluation of co-benefits of energy efficiency. For example,
a contribution to regional economic development and new
business opportunities, contribution to raising productivity
and improving health, reduction of air pollution, transport,
improving comfort and quality of life and so on. If such
an assessment of associated benefits is included in the
Fig. 3. The results of investing in energy efficiency and new energy capacity
compared with the changes in energy balance, 2005-2030 (projection),
(million tons of oil equ.)
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О. Ryabchyn
economic analysis of technologies, unit costs of reducing
emissions will be even lower.
Now the world economy must move to a strategy that
will provide much smaller amounts of carbon-based fuels —
creating products and services it is necessary to consume
less power, and change the method of producing it in such a
way that could use more low-carbon energy sources.
In many cases, to influence the energy balance in
terms of economic development it is most effectively to
invest in new generating capacity rather than in energy
efficiency to free up additional capacity for growth. Fig.
3. shows that energy efficiency measures can provide
up to 230 million tons of oil ekv. that almost 9 times
more profitable than other measures. [5]
To ensure maximum efficiency of energy saving
measures is possible only if society is aware of the
inadmissibility of the unbridled consumption of energy.
The most important task and focus on developing the energy
policy of the state is implementing energy conservation,
its priority funding and the adoption of appropriate legal
base. Saving of energy will play a crucial role in the
development of a model of State continuous development
and ensure of energy and environmental security. Saving
of energy is one of the highest priorities of the national
energy policy for the entire foreseeable future.
References
1. World Bank. 2008. World Development
Indicators 2008. Washington. 2. Доклад о развитии че-
ловека 2007/2008. Борьба с изменениями климата:
человеческая солидарность в разделённом мире / пер.
с англ. — М. : Весь Мир, 2007. — 400 с. 3. Ряб-
чин А. М. Перспективы энергетических технологий
в контексте Киотского протокола, Проблемы разви-
тия внешнеэкономических связей и привлечения ино-
странных инвестиций: региональный аспект /
А. М. Рябчин. — Донецк : ДонНУ, 2008. — С. 1266-
1270. 4. Рябчин А. М., Батченко Л. В. Анализ вли-
яния экологических вызовов глобализации на разви-
тие мировой экономики / А. М. Рябчин, Л. В. Батчен-
ко // Проблемы развития внешнеэкономических свя-
зей и привлечения иностранных инвестиций: регио-
нальный аспект. — Донецк : ДонНУ, 2009. —
с. 1042 — 1047. 5. Yankovskiy M., Makogon Y.,
Ryabchyn O. Innovative and classical theories of
catastrophes and economic crises: Monograph / ed.
Makogon Y. — Donetsk : International Economics
Department, Donetsk National University, 2010.— 304 p.
6. Макогон Ю. В., Яценко А. Б., Рябчин А. М., Гу-
батенко Н. И., Савченко Э. А., Пивоносов М. Ю.,
Аксельрод М. В. Мировой рынок минеральных
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Донецк : 2008. — 270 с.
Ryabchyn О. Impact of environmental
catastrophes and energy crises on international
economic development
Influence of globalisation on formation of system
of eco-energy security of the states is analysed, the role
of influence of global eco-energy calls on branch
development of economic is defined, level of power
efficiency of national economies in the conditions of
strengthening of ecological requirements to world
economic to development is investigated and the estimation
of progress and a condition of performance of the Kyoto
report concerning minimisation of negative eco-energy
consequences of globalisation is spent.
Key words: economy globalisation, a sustainable
development, the international eco-energy security, the Kyoto
report, global problems, power efficiency, climate change.
Рябчин О. Вплив екологічних катастроф і
енергетичних криз на міжнародний економічний
розвиток
Проаналізовано вплив глобалізації на формування
системи еколого-енергетичної безпеки держав, визначе-
но роль впливу глобальних еколого-енергетичних вик-
ликів на галузевий розвиток світової економіки, дослід-
жено рівень енергоефективності національних економік
в умовах посилення екологічних вимог до світогоспо-
дарського розвитку та проведено оцінку прогресу і ста-
ну виконання Кіотського протоколу щодо мінімізації не-
гативних еколого-енергетичних наслідків глобалізації.
Ключові слова: глобалізація економіки, сталий
розвиток, міжнародна еколого-енергетична безпека,
Кіотський протокол, глобальні проблеми, енергоефек-
тивність, зміни клімату.
Рябчин О. Влияние экологических катастроф
и энергетических кризисов на международное эко-
номическое развитие
Проведен анализ направлений преодоления нега-
тивных экологических последствий глобализации, не-
обходимых для развития системы международной эко-
лого-энергетической безопасности ради осуществления
быстрого перехода к глобальной экологической эконо-
мике, которая основывается на установлении рыночных
механизмов возмещения выбросов парниковых газов,
обеспечении государственного регулирования для смяг-
чения и адаптации к последствиям климатических изме-
нений и активизации международного сотрудничества
между развитыми и развивающимися странами.
Ключевые слова: глобализация экономики, устой-
чивое развитие, международная эколого-энергетичес-
кая безопасность, Киотский протокол, глобальные про-
блемы, энергоэффективность, изменение климата.
Received by the editors: 01.11.2010
and final form in 01.12.2010
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