About phenomenological models and seismic prediction: is pessimism justified, are hopes based
Some problems and methods of modeling and seismic activity forecast are considered. Attention is concentrated on phenomenological approach. Ontological complexity of the real geomedium studies is underlined — the open nonlinear dissipative dynamic system — and multifactor way of undergo of external...
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| Datum: | 2013 |
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Subbotin Institute of Geophysics of the NAS of Ukraine
2013
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journalsuranua-geofizicheskiy-article-1113382020-10-07T10:46:54Z About phenomenological models and seismic prediction: is pessimism justified, are hopes based Shuman, V.N. Some problems and methods of modeling and seismic activity forecast are considered. Attention is concentrated on phenomenological approach. Ontological complexity of the real geomedium studies is underlined — the open nonlinear dissipative dynamic system — and multifactor way of undergo of external physical fields. Recital is based on the fact that selforganized critical systems are slightly chaotic ones. It is sufficient that in contrast to completely chaotic ones such systems are in principle relatively longterm predictable. It brings to the solution of the problem definite perspectives, and to the analysis of temporal sets (observed ones) having fractal structure — important details. Subbotin Institute of Geophysics of the NAS of Ukraine 2013-03-01 Article Article application/pdf https://journals.uran.ua/geofizicheskiy/article/view/111338 10.24028/gzh.0203-3100.v35i2.2013.111338 Geofizicheskiy Zhurnal; Vol. 35 No. 2 (2013); 24-37 Геофизический журнал; Том 35 № 2 (2013); 24-37 Геофізичний журнал; Том 35 № 2 (2013); 24-37 2524-1052 0203-3100 rus https://journals.uran.ua/geofizicheskiy/article/view/111338/106341 Copyright (c) 2020 Geofizicheskiy Zhurnal https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0 |
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Geofizicheskiy Zhurnal |
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| datestamp_date |
2020-10-07T10:46:54Z |
| collection |
OJS |
| language |
rus |
| format |
Article |
| author |
Shuman, V.N. |
| spellingShingle |
Shuman, V.N. About phenomenological models and seismic prediction: is pessimism justified, are hopes based |
| author_facet |
Shuman, V.N. |
| author_sort |
Shuman, V.N. |
| title |
About phenomenological models and seismic prediction: is pessimism justified, are hopes based |
| title_short |
About phenomenological models and seismic prediction: is pessimism justified, are hopes based |
| title_full |
About phenomenological models and seismic prediction: is pessimism justified, are hopes based |
| title_fullStr |
About phenomenological models and seismic prediction: is pessimism justified, are hopes based |
| title_full_unstemmed |
About phenomenological models and seismic prediction: is pessimism justified, are hopes based |
| title_sort |
about phenomenological models and seismic prediction: is pessimism justified, are hopes based |
| description |
Some problems and methods of modeling and seismic activity forecast are considered. Attention is concentrated on phenomenological approach. Ontological complexity of the real geomedium studies is underlined — the open nonlinear dissipative dynamic system — and multifactor way of undergo of external physical fields. Recital is based on the fact that selforganized critical systems are slightly chaotic ones. It is sufficient that in contrast to completely chaotic ones such systems are in principle relatively longterm predictable. It brings to the solution of the problem definite perspectives, and to the analysis of temporal sets (observed ones) having fractal structure — important details. |
| publisher |
Subbotin Institute of Geophysics of the NAS of Ukraine |
| publishDate |
2013 |
| url |
https://journals.uran.ua/geofizicheskiy/article/view/111338 |
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AT shumanvn aboutphenomenologicalmodelsandseismicpredictionispessimismjustifiedarehopesbased |
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2025-07-17T11:05:51Z |
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